Core Viewpoint - The performance of major asset classes in September 2025 indicates a strong showing for technology and gold assets, with a notable divergence in stock and commodity markets, reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors [1][2][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In September 2025, major asset performance ranked as follows: Tech > ChiNext Index > Gold > Hang Seng Index > Nasdaq > Japanese Stocks > LME Copper > S&P 500 > CSI 300 > European Stocks > South China Composite > 0 ≈ USD > Chinese Bonds > Crude Oil > Long VIX [1][14]. - Year-to-date (YTD) performance for Chinese technology assets and gold reached 52% as of October 7, 2025, marking them as the top performers [2][14]. - The domestic equity market saw a "red September," with an average daily trading volume of 2.42 trillion yuan, while the CSI 300 index recorded a 2.8% increase [2][38]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global stock market closed positively, with the Nasdaq and Japanese stocks rising over 5% in September, reflecting optimistic market sentiment [2][28]. - The correlation between stock and bond yields deepened, with the rolling 12-month correlation moving from -0.38 to -0.62, indicating a stronger inverse relationship [2][38]. - The real estate market showed signs of recovery, with year-on-year sales turning positive, particularly in the second-hand housing market [2][38]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Indicators - The macroeconomic landscape is characterized by a divergence in hard and soft data, with the U.S. showing marginal declines in soft data and mixed results in hard data due to government shutdown impacts [3][4]. - China's hard and soft data trends remain consistent, with both showing marginal improvements, particularly in soft indicators like BCI and PMI [3][4]. Group 4: Future Drivers - Future drivers for equity assets may stem from the upcoming quarterly reports and policy announcements, particularly regarding domestic demand and new industries [5]. - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment, benefiting cyclical sectors [5]. Group 5: Valuation and Timing Signals - The "valuation-macro deviation" framework indicates that the current P/E ratio is at a +1.82 standard deviation, suggesting that the market is approaching a critical valuation point [8]. - The latest timing signals from the M1-BCI-PPI system show a rebound in scores, indicating a stabilization in economic signals [6]. Group 6: Gold Pricing Model - The gold market has seen a 16% increase since September, driven by a combination of Fed rate cut expectations, government shutdown, and geopolitical risks [12][34]. - The sensitivity of gold prices to real interest rates remains low, with projections suggesting potential price levels between $4012.57 and $4118.27 per ounce if real rates decline further [12].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment since August 2025 has been characterized by a strong performance in high-growth sectors, particularly in China's technology stocks, alongside a backdrop of rising global bond yields and shifting currency dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In August 2025, major asset performances ranked as follows: Sci-Tech 50 > ChiNext Index > CSI 300 > Gold > Hang Seng Tech > Dow Jones > LME Copper > European Stocks > NASDAQ > Hang Seng Index > RMB > 0 > China Bond > Nanhua Composite > USD > Crude Oil > Long VIX [1][14]. - Risk assets generally rose in August, with notable performance in Chinese assets, a concurrent appreciation of the RMB, and pressure on government bonds [2][14]. - The domestic equity market saw a broad increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 10.9% in August, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 13.4 basis points to 1.84% [2][27]. Group 2: Macro Trading Themes - The primary macro trading themes since August 2025 include a "high-growth narrative" led by the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext Index, a "rate cut trade" in the U.S. following downward revisions in employment data, and a rise in "risk aversion" reflected in increasing global bond yields [3][57]. - The U.S. employment data revision has opened a window for potential Fed rate cuts, influencing various asset classes to align with this "rate cut trade" [3][57]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic indicators show that the U.S. hard data has remained stable while soft data has slightly improved since August, contrasting with Europe and Japan, where economic outlooks are mixed [4][70]. - China's economic indicators suggest a slowdown, with an estimated actual GDP growth of approximately 4.76% for August, aligning with seasonal economic characteristics [4][70]. Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand housing performing better than new homes, indicating a trend of "price for volume" [2][42]. - The rental yield in major cities has remained above the 30-year government bond yield, although the leading margin has narrowed compared to previous periods [2][42]. Group 5: Market Volatility and Sentiment - The volatility in the market has seen a decrease in August, with the number of daily ranking changes among 19 asset classes dropping from 124 to 114 [15][62]. - The VIX index has shown signs of recovery, indicating increased market uncertainty and potential adjustments in global risk assets [15][63].