Core Viewpoint - The performance of major asset classes in September 2025 indicates a strong showing for technology and gold assets, with a notable divergence in stock and commodity markets, reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors [1][2][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In September 2025, major asset performance ranked as follows: Tech > ChiNext Index > Gold > Hang Seng Index > Nasdaq > Japanese Stocks > LME Copper > S&P 500 > CSI 300 > European Stocks > South China Composite > 0 ≈ USD > Chinese Bonds > Crude Oil > Long VIX [1][14]. - Year-to-date (YTD) performance for Chinese technology assets and gold reached 52% as of October 7, 2025, marking them as the top performers [2][14]. - The domestic equity market saw a "red September," with an average daily trading volume of 2.42 trillion yuan, while the CSI 300 index recorded a 2.8% increase [2][38]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global stock market closed positively, with the Nasdaq and Japanese stocks rising over 5% in September, reflecting optimistic market sentiment [2][28]. - The correlation between stock and bond yields deepened, with the rolling 12-month correlation moving from -0.38 to -0.62, indicating a stronger inverse relationship [2][38]. - The real estate market showed signs of recovery, with year-on-year sales turning positive, particularly in the second-hand housing market [2][38]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Indicators - The macroeconomic landscape is characterized by a divergence in hard and soft data, with the U.S. showing marginal declines in soft data and mixed results in hard data due to government shutdown impacts [3][4]. - China's hard and soft data trends remain consistent, with both showing marginal improvements, particularly in soft indicators like BCI and PMI [3][4]. Group 4: Future Drivers - Future drivers for equity assets may stem from the upcoming quarterly reports and policy announcements, particularly regarding domestic demand and new industries [5]. - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment, benefiting cyclical sectors [5]. Group 5: Valuation and Timing Signals - The "valuation-macro deviation" framework indicates that the current P/E ratio is at a +1.82 standard deviation, suggesting that the market is approaching a critical valuation point [8]. - The latest timing signals from the M1-BCI-PPI system show a rebound in scores, indicating a stabilization in economic signals [6]. Group 6: Gold Pricing Model - The gold market has seen a 16% increase since September, driven by a combination of Fed rate cut expectations, government shutdown, and geopolitical risks [12][34]. - The sensitivity of gold prices to real interest rates remains low, with projections suggesting potential price levels between $4012.57 and $4118.27 per ounce if real rates decline further [12].

Group 1 - The article discusses the macro perspective on the recent revaluation of equity assets, summarizing insights from eleven reports that form a methodological series [1] - It identifies five asset classes that have performed notably well since early 2025, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, emerging market stocks, major market tech stocks, and alternative assets [6] - The article outlines three main themes behind these asset performances: the weakening of dollar credit and "soft decoupling" of assets, the reshaping of global supply chains and "backup" supply, and a new wave of technological revolution and industrial layout [1][6] Group 2 - The article analyzes the acceleration of technological innovation in China, using the pharmaceutical industry as an example to observe the release of the "engineer dividend" in the economy [2][9] - It discusses the relationship between the appreciation of the RMB and asset appreciation, noting that the exchange rate is influenced by purchasing power parity, interest rate differentials, and risk premiums [2][11] Group 3 - The article identifies five key drivers behind the recent pricing recovery of equity assets, including total recovery, broad-based growth improvement, increased asset activity among residents, medium to long-term capital entering the market, and rising credit risk premiums on dollar assets [2][13] - It explains the phase of divergence between equity market performance and economic indicators, using the "Changjiang Business School BCI" to represent economic fundamentals and "Wind All A" for the equity market [2][13] Group 4 - The article explores the relationship between liquidity and asset pricing, indicating that liquidity affects financial market asset pricing through opportunity costs and the availability of financing [3][13] - It summarizes five characteristics of high-growth narratives in the equity market, observed during specific periods, including macro risk clearance, low traditional asset profitability, ample liquidity, sticky expected returns, and the presence of industry narratives [3][14] Group 5 - The article presents a "5+1" timing framework for high-growth narratives, which has yielded a cumulative return of 1147.47% since 2006, with an annualized return of 13.96% and an annualized excess return of 2.98% [4][15] - It builds an analytical framework for understanding the recent rise in gold prices, incorporating its financial, monetary, commodity, and safe-haven attributes, along with a quantitative monitoring system for gold price indicators [4][16]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 陈礼清 博士 chenliqing@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 2025年前三季度，中国科技资产领跑大类资产。科技资产的超额收益一方面具有趋势性，是中国经济产业升级的映射和"工程师红利"要素优势的兑现；另一方面也 需具备一定的市场定价条件配合。在前期报告《资产的高成长叙事一般是在什么样的宏观阶段》中，我们对照了历史上相似时段，指出了高成长叙事成立的五个宏 观条件：（1）宏观风险阶段性出清（敢买）；（2）名义GDP增速尚未起来（传统资产赚钱效应低）；（3）流动性充裕（资金机会成本低）；（4）预期回报率存 在粘性（高收益率资产荒）；（5）产业叙事存在（技术变革出现，有短期可充分预期的资产）。在上述认识基础上，本篇研究中我们进一步结合胜率+赔率框架落 地具体的宏观择时方案。 维度一： 宏观风险出清程度。高成长叙事需要一个资金"敢买"的风险出清契机。我们测试了标普500波动率指数(VIX)、美债MOVE隐含波动指数、海外经济政策 不确定性指数、月度名义GDP下行波动率、铜金比、全A股权风险溢价六个潜在变量的择时效果。结果显示基于美债MOVE、月度名义GDP下行波动率生成 ...

Group 1 - The A500ETF by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 1.78% and a transaction volume of 2.21 billion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 3.32 billion yuan over the past week as of September 1 [3] - The latest scale of A500ETF Jiashi reached 12.397 billion yuan, with a net value increase of 19.52% over the past six months [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 11.71%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being 4 months and a maximum increase of 22.93% [3] - Analysts from multiple brokerages are optimistic about the A-share market's medium to long-term trends, focusing on technology, consumption, and non-bank financial sectors [3] - The chief economist of GF Securities noted a "high growth narrative" in the market, indicating that industries with high growth potential are performing particularly well [3] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 index include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, and others, accounting for a total of 19.11% [4] - The individual weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Kweichow Moutai at 3.87%, CATL at 2.89%, and Ping An Insurance at 2.60% [6] - Investors without stock accounts can access the A500ETF Jiashi linked fund (022454) to invest in the top 500 A-share companies [6]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The overall trend of the A-share market is expected to be positive, supported by multiple favorable factors, with a focus on technology, consumption, and non-bank financial sectors for investment allocation [1][2] - Analysts believe that the A-share market can achieve valuation recovery and structural opportunities in a stable macroeconomic environment, aided by sufficient policy support and moderately loose monetary policy [2][3] Group 2: Economic Policy and Growth - Domestic economic policies will focus on three main lines: addressing real estate and local hidden debt risks, expanding fiscal stimulus to upgrade domestic consumption, and stimulating effective investment across society [2] - Economic growth in China is expected to return to around 5.0% by the second half of 2026 after a brief transformation period, marking the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development [2] Group 3: Sector Preferences - The brokerage firms are optimistic about technology growth assets, viewing them as crucial for economic transformation and benefiting from policy support and market demand [4] - Specific investment recommendations include non-bank financial sectors, real estate chains, overseas computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, and domestic AI infrastructure and applications [4] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The current market environment is characterized by a balance between fundamental and liquidity-driven factors, with expectations for a turning point in return on equity (ROE) in the fourth quarter of this year [5] - There are indications of overbought conditions in the market, suggesting that investors should maintain some liquidity to manage potential future volatility [5]

Group 1 - The overall trend of the A-share market is expected to be positive in the medium to long term, supported by multiple favorable factors [1][2] - Analysts from various securities firms are optimistic about sectors such as technology, consumption, and non-bank financials [1][2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is conducive to a positive trend in the A-share market, with sufficient policy support and a reasonably ample monetary policy ensuring liquidity [2] - The "high growth narrative" is evident in the market, with high-growth industries or sectors performing prominently [2] - Domestic economic policies will focus on addressing real estate and local hidden debt risks, stimulating domestic consumption, and encouraging effective investment [2] Group 3 - The securities firms are particularly bullish on technology growth as a key driver of economic transformation, benefiting from policy support and market demand [4] - The main investment directions suggested include non-bank financial sectors, real estate chains, overseas computing power chains, and domestic AI infrastructure [4] - The outlook for manufacturing sector recovery is becoming clearer, with recommendations to focus on physical assets and sectors benefiting from domestic demand [4] Group 4 - Current market conditions are characterized by a balance between liquidity and fundamental drivers, with expectations for a turning point in return on equity (ROE) in Q4 [5] - There are indications of some overbought conditions in the market, suggesting the need for investors to reserve some positions for potential future volatility [5][6]

Group 1 - The overall trend of the A-share market is expected to be positive, supported by multiple favorable factors, with a focus on technology, consumption, and non-bank financial sectors for investment allocation [1][3][6] - Analysts believe that the macroeconomic environment is conducive to valuation recovery and structural opportunities in the A-share market, with a stable macroeconomic backdrop [3][4] - The domestic economic policy will focus on addressing real estate and local debt risks, stimulating domestic consumption, and encouraging effective investment [3][6] Group 2 - The market is currently characterized by a "high growth narrative," where high-growth industries are performing notably well, indicating a favorable macroeconomic environment [3][6] - The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose in the fourth quarter, with a shift in focus towards whether corporate performance can follow the recovery in valuation and sentiment [4][7] - The main investment themes include technology growth assets, domestic consumption, and sectors benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the A-share market is expected to maintain a medium to long-term upward trend supported by multiple positive factors, with a focus on sectors such as technology, consumption, and non-bank financials [2][4][7]. Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for the A-share market, with sufficient policy support and moderately loose monetary policy ensuring reasonable liquidity, leading to valuation recovery and structural opportunities [4][5]. - Analysts from various securities firms highlight a "high growth narrative" in the market, indicating that industries with high growth potential are performing particularly well [4]. - The domestic economic policy is focused on three main lines: addressing real estate and local hidden debt risks, stimulating domestic consumption through fiscal expansion, and encouraging effective investment across society [4]. Group 3 - The liquidity environment in the domestic market is expected to remain loose in the fourth quarter, with a shift in focus towards whether corporate performance can follow the recovery in valuations and sentiment [5][8]. - The securities firms recommend focusing on four key areas for investment: non-bank financials, real estate chains, overseas computing power chains, and domestic AI infrastructure and applications [7]. - The outlook for manufacturing sector recovery is becoming clearer, with investors advised to pay attention to physical assets benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery and sectors related to domestic demand [7]. Group 4 - The current market situation is characterized as being between the fundamental-driven market of 2006-2007 and the liquidity-driven market of 2014-2015, with optimism about a potential turning point in return on equity (ROE) in the fourth quarter [8]. - Investors are advised to be cautious of potential overbought conditions in the market and to consider left-side layout opportunities in the consumption sector, which may reflect longer-term trends beyond short-term rebounds [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market trend is characterized by a "high growth narrative," where industries or sectors with high growth potential are performing prominently [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since early April, the A-share market has seen a significant upward trend, driven by macroeconomic factors such as narrow liquidity easing and the appreciation of the RMB [4]. - The market is currently experiencing a "high growth narrative," which typically occurs under conditions of risk phase clearing, ample liquidity, and low opportunity costs for funds [4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The non-bank financial sector, A-share real estate chain, Hong Kong real estate sector, overseas computing power chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, domestic computing power, AI infrastructure, and AI edge applications are identified as key investment opportunities [2][5][6]. - The small-cap stock index has surged over 56% this year, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, indicating a trend favoring small-cap stocks [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A500 index has shown positive performance, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Tianfu Communication and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, suggesting a bullish market sentiment [1][4] - The A500 ETF managed by Harvest has seen a trading volume of 3.80 billion yuan, with a recent average daily trading volume of 34.15 billion yuan over the past week, indicating strong liquidity [3] - As of August 27, 2025, the A500 ETF has achieved a net asset value increase of 12.72% over the past six months, with a maximum monthly return of 4.48% since its inception [3] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 index include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and Ping An Insurance, collectively accounting for 19.83% of the index [3][6] - The market outlook suggests that active participation from retail investors and foreign capital, along with favorable macroeconomic signals, may accelerate the second phase of a bull market [4] - The current market is characterized by a "high growth narrative," where sectors with high growth potential are outperforming, indicating a focus on growth-oriented assets [4]