美国领先经济指标12月环比下降0.2%，预期中值为-0.2%；指标报97.6。 7位经济学家对领先经济指标的 预测区间为-0.4%至0.3%。 领先经济指标11月下降0.3%，10月下降0.2%。 领先经济指标同步指数12月 上升0.2%，前值为上升0.1%。 领先经济指标滞后指数12月下降0.1%，11月为上升0.1%。 ...

Core Insights - The leading economic indicators in the U.S. declined again in October and November, primarily driven by weak consumer confidence and a decrease in new orders [1] - Despite a strong actual GDP growth of 4.4% in Q3 2025, the leading indicators suggest a potential economic slowdown in 2026 [1] Economic Indicators - The main factor contributing to the decline in leading indicators is weak consumer confidence, with new orders being a secondary factor [1] - Other indicators remained relatively stable in November, with a notable positive contribution from labor market data, such as initial jobless claims and weekly hours worked in manufacturing [1]

Market Overview - Pre-market indexes are showing a slight increase, with the small-cap Russell 2000 up more than +1% [1] - The Dow is up +114 points, S&P 500 +14 points, Nasdaq +62 points, and Russell +25 points, with only S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing year-to-date gains [2] Economic Indicators - The Philly Fed manufacturing index for June is at -4.0, marking the third consecutive month of decline, with lower readings in business conditions, capital expenditures, new orders, and prices paid [3] - The Employment Index has dropped to -9.8, indicating a potential softening labor market in the U.S. [3][4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The decline in the Employment Index may create an opportunity for the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates, although worse employment numbers would need to be observed first [4] Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) report for May is expected to show a marginally negative headline of -0.1%, improving from -1.0% in April [6] - The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) has recovered from Covid-era lows, indicating current economic conditions are improving [7] Future Market Expectations - A significant week for economic data is anticipated, including reports on the housing market, Services and Manufacturing PMI, Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which are crucial for future Fed monetary policy decisions [8]