历史教训 根据马里兰大学托马斯·德雷克塞尔（Thomas Drechsel）的一篇学术论文，回顾1933年以来的历史，美 国总统与美联储主席之间的私人互动，往往会促使货币政策倾向于更快的降息。 来源：市场资讯 来源：金十数据 英国最大的独立投资银行Panmure Liberum的投资策略师约阿希姆·克莱门特（Joachim Klement）表示， 美联储的立场最近在"鸽派"和"鹰派"之间来回摇摆，使得投资者对明年美国激进降息的前景感到不确 定。然而，这家央行仍然面临着迅速放松政策的政治压力。因此，如果历史经验可以借鉴，投资者或许 能在2026年迎来一场经济上的短暂兴奋期。 在10月的会议上，美联储将其政策利率下调25个基点，至3.75%-4.00%的区间，但鲍威尔的发言却流露 出明显的"鹰派"立场，上周公布的美联储会议纪要也强化了这一点。 这重新引发了市场猜测：美联储的降息幅度可能不会像此前预期的那么多。在货币市场上，对2026年联 邦基金利率的预期又回升到3%以上。截至上周四，12月再次降息的可能性已从鲍威尔10月讲话前的 90%下降到40%。 然而，上周五纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表声明称，利率可能在"短期内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that while U.S. consumer spending is expected to remain stable in the second quarter, residential and business fixed investment will show significant weakness [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending - Actual personal consumption expenditure is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the second quarter [1] - The strength of service spending in June remains uncertain [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Residential and business fixed investment is anticipated to be notably weak in the second quarter [1] - Equipment investment has shown a significant slowdown, with businesses reducing spending on computers and communication equipment after a concentrated import period in the first quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The actual GDP growth for Q2 2025 is 5.2%, showing recovery from the previous year's lower growth rates, while nominal GDP growth remains a concern at 3.9% [1][7][9]. Economic Structure and Growth Drivers - The actual growth is supported by broad-based increases in various sectors: manufacturing investment grew by 17.3%, durable goods consumption saw a 30.7% increase in retail sales of major appliances, and service consumption rose by 5.3% [1][9]. - Exports also contributed positively, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in the first half of the year [1][9]. Industrial Capacity Utilization - The industrial capacity utilization rate for Q2 is 74.0%, slightly down from 74.1% in Q1 and 76.2% in the previous year, indicating a slowdown but with a deceleration in the rate of decline [2][10]. - Specific sectors like coal, food and beverage, chemicals, and automotive are experiencing lower utilization rates, while electrical machinery shows signs of improvement [2][10]. June Economic Indicators - In June, industrial value-added growth reached 6.8%, the highest in three months, driven by factors such as tariff adjustments and increased production in emerging sectors like industrial robots and integrated circuits [3][13]. - Retail sales growth in June fell to 4.8%, the lowest in four months, with significant declines in sectors like dining and beverages, while automotive sales showed resilience with a 4.6% increase [4][14]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment particularly affected, possibly due to high prior usage of equipment renewal funds [5][15]. - Real estate sales and investment continued to decelerate, indicating a need for new policies to stabilize the market after a period of demand release [5][16][17]. Summary of Economic Performance - The first half of the year saw an actual growth of 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for achieving around 5% growth for the year [6][19]. - Key concerns include nominal GDP, industrial capacity utilization, and the ongoing decline in retail and real estate sectors, highlighting the need for effective policy signals to support investment and consumption [6][19].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's staff anticipates that the real GDP growth for 2025 will be higher than previously forecasted, while the inflation rate is expected to be lower than earlier predictions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Growth - The Federal Reserve staff projects an increase in the actual GDP growth for 2025 compared to earlier estimates [1] Inflation Expectations - The anticipated inflation rate for 2025 is expected to be lower than previous forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's projects that Ukraine's economy will further slow down in 2025, with real GDP growth decreasing from 2.9% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 [1] Economic Outlook - The expected decline in real GDP growth indicates a challenging economic environment for Ukraine in the coming years [1] - The forecasted growth rates suggest a potential stagnation in economic recovery efforts [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the impact of trade policies on economic activity is greater than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Projections - The staff's forecasts for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward compared to the predictions made in March [1] - The announced trade policies are expected to result in a more significant drag on actual economic activity than previously assumed [1] Productivity and Potential GDP - Trade policies are anticipated to lead to a slowdown in productivity growth, which will reduce potential GDP growth in the coming years [1] Output Gap and Labor Market - The output gap is expected to widen significantly during the forecast period due to earlier and larger-than-expected demand drag compared to supply responses [1] - The labor market is projected to weaken considerably, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the staff's estimate of the natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan projects a 1.0% growth in real GDP for the fiscal year 2027 [1] Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan's forecast indicates a cautious optimism regarding Japan's economic recovery and growth trajectory [1]