Core Insights - The European business lobby group, BusinessEurope, indicates that the negative impact of U.S. tariff policies and escalating trade tensions on European companies is expected to significantly worsen by 2026 [1] Economic Impact - The survey reveals that the overall economic growth of the Eurozone has been only slightly affected this year, with a reduction of approximately 0.03 percentage points due to trade frictions [1] - By 2026, the impact of trade tensions is projected to increase, potentially dragging down Eurozone economic growth by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points as temporary coping strategies lose effectiveness [1] Future Outlook - The organization warns that if the U.S. and Europe fail to reach a resolution on key trade disputes by the end of this year, there could be a chain reaction leading to further reductions in corporate investment, decreased capacity utilization, and pressure on the job market next year [1]

该组织警告，若美欧未能在2025年底前就关键贸易分歧达成缓和机制，2026年可能出现企业投资进一步 收缩、产能利用率下降及就业市场承压等连锁反应。此外，调查未包含潜在新关税或非关税壁垒的额外 情景，实际影响可能更高。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月10日电欧洲主要商业游说组织BusinessEurope10日发布的一项调查显示，美国关税政 策及持续升级的美欧贸易紧张局势对欧洲企业的负面影响将在2026年显著加剧，其经济冲击预计将达到 2025年的十数倍。 根据该调查，由于企业普遍采取了前瞻性措施——包括提前调整供应链、锁定关键原材料和多元化出口 市场——2025年贸易摩擦对欧元区整体经济增长的拖累相对有限，仅使GDP增幅收窄约0.03个百分点。 然而，这种缓冲效应具有时效性。到2026年，随着临时应对策略效力减弱、合同重新谈判以及投资延迟 效应显现，贸易紧张局势的实质性影响将集中释放，预计拖累欧元区GDP增长0.5至0.6个百分点。 报告强调，这一预测凸显了贸易政策冲击的典型"滞后效应"：短期韧性掩盖了中期脆弱性。 BusinessEurope指出，欧元区经济体因高度依赖制造业出口和全球价值链整合 ...

Group 1 - Italy is facing dual pressures from the US-EU trade tensions, including a proposed 30% tariff on EU goods and a weakening dollar impacting export competitiveness [1][2] - Italy's exports to the US account for 10% of its total exports, with a trade surplus of €39 billion expected in 2024, indicating a higher dependency on the US market compared to the EU average [2][3] - The sectors most affected by the tariffs include beverages, automobiles, and other transportation equipment, with the average tariff impact on Italy being higher than the overall EU level [2][3] Group 2 - If the 30% tariff is implemented, Italy's exports to the US could decrease by nearly 20%, resulting in an economic loss of €12.4 billion [3] - The weakening dollar is creating an "invisible tax" on Italian exports, making US goods cheaper and foreign goods more expensive, which could further exacerbate the impact of any additional tariffs [4][5] - In May, Italy's imports from the US grew by 18.5%, while exports only increased by 2.5%, highlighting the adverse effects of the currency exchange rate [5] Group 3 - Over 6,000 Italian companies are directly exposed to the risks posed by increased US tariffs, with small and medium-sized enterprises being the most affected [6] - The export sector is crucial for Italy's economy, and the combination of tariffs and currency issues could lead to significant economic repercussions [7] - There is a risk that companies may relocate production to the US due to the declining attractiveness of investment in Europe [7]