点击小程序查看报告原文 今年1-7月，我国出口同比增速要远高于市场预期。我们认为，在全球产业链重构的背景下，新兴市场和发展中国家工业化加速，而中国完整 的供应链叠加竞争力提升，使得我国中间品出口提速，对我国出口增速形成重要支撑。今年1-7月，我国中间品出口强于资本品、消费品，中 间品的出口增长主要是对新兴市场/发展中国家的中间品出口提升。在中间品出口的推动下，我国对非美地区的出口增速较高。行业上，机 电、贱金属、运输设备、精密仪器的中间品出口增速较高，或反映了我国制造业的规模经济优势，以及科技创新能力的提升。 2025年1-7月，我国出口以美元计价累计同比增长6.1%。而在全球关税扰动之下，市场对2025年的出口增速预期仅为0.88%（图表1）。为什么 我国出口增速要远高于市场预期？我们此前在 《解码出口新常态》 中提出，在全球产业链重构的背景下，新兴市场和发展中国家工业化加 速，带动了我国中间品的出口，是我国出口增速较高的重要支撑，而市场对此有所低估。 图表1：今年1-7月的出口同比增速超出市场预期 资料来源：iFinD，海关总署，中金公司研究部 2025年1-7月，我国中间品出口强于资本品、消费品，是出口 ...

个股表现方面，昂天宏图、开普云涨20%，领涨成分股；浩欧博跌9.01%，跌幅居首。 成交额方面，寒武纪成交额249.9亿元，位居首位；ST帕瓦成交额1299万元，位居末位。 换手率方面，航天南湖换手率为29.91%，位居首位；龙腾光电换手率为0.43%，位居末位。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月25日电 （王媛媛）科创50指数8月25日冲高回落，盘初涨幅一度扩大至6%附近，随后 有所回落。至收盘时，科创50指数报1287.73点，涨幅3.20%，指数振幅为5.44%，总成交额约1345亿 元。 从盘面上看，科创板个股多数上涨，上涨个股364只。高价股和低价股均多数上涨。 细分领域中，航空、医疗保健、运输设备类个股表现活跃，部分半导体、生物制药类个股下跌。 经新华财经统计，8月25日，科创板589只个股平均涨幅1.23%，平均换手率5.19%，合计成交额3473亿 元，平均振幅为5.34%。 ...

Economic Overview - In July, China's economy demonstrated a steady and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, stable employment and prices, and significant advancements in new productive forces, contributing to high-quality development [2][3] Industrial Performance - Industrial production showed a steady upward trend, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in July and 6.3% cumulatively from January to July, surpassing the average of the past five years by 0.42 percentage points [3][4] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing emerged as the main growth engines, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.3% and 8.4%, respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [3][4] - New productive forces are being cultivated, with significant increases in the production of smart drones (80.8%), new energy vehicles (17.1%), and integrated circuits (26.9%) [3][4] Consumer Market Dynamics - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.88 trillion yuan in July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, while the cumulative total for January to July reached 28.42 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% [5][6] - Service consumption showed strong momentum, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in service retail sales from January to July, driven by summer tourism [5][6] - Upgraded products saw significant sales growth, with office supplies increasing by 13.8%, home appliances by 28.7%, and furniture by 20.6% [5][6] Foreign Trade Resilience - In July, China's total goods import and export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8%, indicating strong external demand resilience [7][8] - From January to July, the total value of goods trade reached 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [7][8] - The resilience in foreign trade is attributed to the deepening economic cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road, stable policies from the US-China tariff truce, and the growth of high-value-added product exports [7][8] Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policies are expected to further strengthen in the second half of the year, with high-tech manufacturing and green industries projected to maintain growth rates around 10% [9][10] - Continued support for consumption through policies like trade-in programs and financial assistance for the service sector is anticipated [9][10] - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound with the gradual allocation of special bonds and the introduction of new policy financial tools [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the machinery equipment industry [1] Core Views - The machinery equipment industry has shown strong performance, with a 5.75% increase in the past week, ranking second among all primary industries [5][15] - The report highlights significant growth in the engineering machinery sector, with excavator sales in July reaching 17,138 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.2% [5][22] - The report emphasizes the potential of the humanoid robot industry, predicting that global shipments will double annually, driven by advancements in AI technology [7][8] Summary by Sections Market Review - The machinery industry saw a 5.75% increase in the past week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.23% [15] - Specific segments such as engineering machinery and general equipment experienced notable gains, with increases of 5.95% and 6.97% respectively [16] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Engineering machinery PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [21] - In July, excavator sales reached 17,138 units, with domestic sales at 7,306 units (up 17.2% year-on-year) and exports at 9,832 units (up 31.9% year-on-year) [22] - The report also notes a 40.8% year-on-year increase in industrial robot production for June, totaling 75,000 units [31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the engineering machinery sector such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and XCMG [8] - It also highlights opportunities in the humanoid robot segment, particularly in high-tech components and sensors [8] - Other sectors of interest include semiconductor equipment and energy equipment, with specific companies recommended for investment [8][9]

Group 1 - The AMAC Transportation Equipment Index (AMAC Transportation, H30064) experienced a decline of 0.59%, closing at 2971.02 points with a trading volume of 46.95 billion [1] - Over the past month, the AMAC Transportation Equipment Index has increased by 8.50%, by 17.92% over the last three months, and by 10.82% year-to-date [1] - The index is based on the classification guidelines from the China Securities Association and includes 43 industry classification indices, with a base date of January 1, 2009, set at 1000.0 points [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings of the AMAC Transportation Equipment Index include China CRRC (9.51%), China Shipbuilding (8.92%), AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (6.84%), Guangqi Technology (6.81%), China Heavy Industry (6.02%), Aero Engine Corporation of China (5.64%), AVIC Xi'an Aircraft (4.07%), AVIC Aircraft (3.12%), Aerospace Electronics (3.08%), and Chunfeng Power (2.99%) [1] - The market composition of the AMAC Transportation Equipment Index shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 75.55% and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 24.45% [1] - In terms of industry composition, the sample holdings of the AMAC Transportation Equipment Index are comprised of 92.06% in industrials and 7.94% in consumer discretionary [2]

Group 1 - The core impact of the tariffs is evident, with a significant decline in U.S. imports from Europe, dropping from $56.6 billion in May to $45.2 billion in June, marking the lowest level since February 2024 [2] - The automotive sector is the hardest hit, with a year-on-year decline of 36% in European exports to the U.S. in June due to a 25% additional tariff [3][6] - Other sectors also experienced declines, with transportation equipment and chemicals seeing year-on-year drops of 30% and 19% respectively, while some sectors like base metals and agricultural products remained resilient due to tariff exemptions [7] Group 2 - The report warns that the observed decline is still mild compared to the potential overall losses predicted by models, indicating that more severe impacts are yet to come [4][9] - Starting August 1, the average tariff rate on European exports to the U.S. increased from 12% in June to 16%, with the current 15% rate being more damaging than the previous 10% during the tariff suspension period [11] - The negative impacts of tariffs may have a lagging effect, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, where a significant drop in exports is anticipated as inventory is consumed and tariffs potentially rise further [11]

Core Insights - The chairman of the Egyptian Heavy Industries Export Council, Sherif El-Sayyad, reported that Egypt's heavy industrial exports reached $3.1 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 15% increase compared to the same period in 2024, which is the highest six-month export figure on record for the industry [1] Export Performance - In June, the export value increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching $475 million [1] - Significant exports included cables, automotive parts, electrical and electronic products, home appliances, and transportation equipment, with notable growth in exports to European countries [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Japanese economy and its currency, the yen, in the context of recent political developments and economic challenges [1][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Stagnation and Inflation Risks**: Japan is facing stagflation risks due to external trade war pressures and rising domestic food prices, particularly affecting the export of transportation equipment due to high tariffs, which has weakened overall export data and reduced residents' purchasing power [1][3]. - **Political Landscape**: Following the recent Senate elections, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority, leading to a mismatch in government power and legislative authority. This has raised concerns about fiscal discipline, as the opposition advocates for fiscal expansion and tax cuts, while the ruling party is cautious about increasing debt levels [1][3][4]. - **Monetary Policy Normalization**: The Bank of Japan's move towards normalizing monetary policy has resulted in rising long-term Japanese government bond yields, compounded by high U.S. bond yields, which exacerbates Japan's debt issues and raises market concerns about fiscal management [1][5]. - **Short-term Outlook for Yen Assets**: Yen assets are expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to weak economic fundamentals, stalled U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, and internal political instability. A recovery in market risk appetite is contingent on the resolution of election-related uncertainties and clarity on tax reduction policies [1][3][4]. - **Structural Opportunities in Specific Sectors**: Despite the overall economic challenges, there are structural investment opportunities in sectors such as high-end manufacturing, particularly semiconductors and communication equipment, which are expected to perform well due to policy support [1][6][8]. Additional Important Content - **Military Spending**: Japan's military spending has reached a historical high in the new fiscal year, which could benefit domestic stocks if the opposition pushes for tax cuts. This increase in military expenditure is also a factor to consider in the broader economic context [1][6]. - **Impact of Political Risks on Currency**: The yen's performance is influenced by multiple factors, including internal political risks and debt constraints. While there are concerns about long-term credit risks if the opposition promotes fiscal stimulus, the current political risks are deemed limited, reducing the likelihood of significant currency depreciation [2][7][9]. - **High-end Manufacturing Investment**: The ruling party's cautious fiscal approach does not extend to high-end manufacturing, where there is active investment, indicating potential growth in this sector despite broader economic weaknesses [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the Japanese economy and its currency dynamics.

Group 1 - Italy is facing dual pressures from the US-EU trade tensions, including a proposed 30% tariff on EU goods and a weakening dollar impacting export competitiveness [1][2] - Italy's exports to the US account for 10% of its total exports, with a trade surplus of €39 billion expected in 2024, indicating a higher dependency on the US market compared to the EU average [2][3] - The sectors most affected by the tariffs include beverages, automobiles, and other transportation equipment, with the average tariff impact on Italy being higher than the overall EU level [2][3] Group 2 - If the 30% tariff is implemented, Italy's exports to the US could decrease by nearly 20%, resulting in an economic loss of €12.4 billion [3] - The weakening dollar is creating an "invisible tax" on Italian exports, making US goods cheaper and foreign goods more expensive, which could further exacerbate the impact of any additional tariffs [4][5] - In May, Italy's imports from the US grew by 18.5%, while exports only increased by 2.5%, highlighting the adverse effects of the currency exchange rate [5] Group 3 - Over 6,000 Italian companies are directly exposed to the risks posed by increased US tariffs, with small and medium-sized enterprises being the most affected [6] - The export sector is crucial for Italy's economy, and the combination of tariffs and currency issues could lead to significant economic repercussions [7] - There is a risk that companies may relocate production to the US due to the declining attractiveness of investment in Europe [7]

Group 1 - Brazilian President Lula stated there is no obligation to conduct trade in US dollars and emphasized the need to seek other trade partners [1][2] - Lula mentioned that trade with the US accounts for only 1.7% of Brazil's GDP, indicating that Brazil can survive without the US [1] - The proposed 50% tariff by Trump could severely impact key Brazilian export sectors, including steel products, transportation equipment, and non-metallic minerals [2] Group 2 - The US is Brazil's second-largest trading partner, following China, and the proposed tariffs are politically motivated, linked to the judicial proceedings against former President Bolsonaro [2] - Brazil currently has a trade deficit with the US, importing approximately $44 billion worth of US products while exporting about $42 billion [2]