过去一段时间，美国总统特朗普频繁批评美联储主席鲍威尔"降息太慢"，并多次暗示将很快公布下一任 美联储主席的人选。对于美联储主席之位将花落谁家，外界猜测纷纷。 而眼下，随着美联储理事库格勒意外宣布提前卸任，谁将填补她在理事会的职位空缺成为市场关注的焦 点。原因在于，库格勒的继任者极有可能成为下一任美联储主席。 上周五，美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒宣布将于8月8日正式辞去职务。库格勒近期主张在"一段时间 内"保持关键利率不变。她上周还因个人原因缺席了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。 库格勒的理事任期原定于2026年1月31日结束，其提前离职为特朗普更快地将"影子主席"安排进美联储 理事会提供了良机。 当地时间8月3日，特朗普表示，未来几天将提名新任美联储理事。 国际大行瑞银日前发布报告称，库格勒的意外辞职，使得鲍威尔继任者的遴选工作被迫提前启动。白宫 提名的接替美联储理事库格勒的人选最终可能成为下一任美联储主席。 不过该行也指出，也存在其他人成为下一任美联储主席的可能性，比如现任美联储理事沃勒。 包括Amanda Wilcox在内的瑞银经济学家指出了一条可能的路径：鲍威尔继任者最初将被任命填补库格 勒的职位空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has accelerated the race for the next Fed Chair, prompting the White House to consider appointing a successor to Jerome Powell to fill Kugler's vacant position [3][4][5]. Group 1: Implications of Kugler's Resignation - Kugler's unexpected resignation opens a window for the White House to strategically position the next Fed Chair candidate [3][4]. - The White House is urged to quickly appoint Powell's successor to fill Kugler's seat, as Powell's continued tenure as a governor after his chairmanship could limit the pool of candidates for the new chair [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Considerations - UBS analysts suggest that appointing a "designated successor" to work alongside the current chair could complicate future policy communications and increase internal tensions within the FOMC [7]. - The early vacancy of Kugler's position allows the White House to submit a nomination to the board, thus advancing the selection process for the next chair [7]. Group 3: Potential Candidates - Discussions regarding potential candidates for the Fed Chair position are intensifying, with names such as Treasury Secretary Becerra, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh being mentioned [8]. - Current Fed Governor Christopher Waller is also seen as a contender, particularly after his dissenting vote in a recent FOMC meeting [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, stated that there is no urgency in determining the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with potential candidates possibly coming from the current Board of Governors or regional Fed presidents [1] - Mnuchin mentioned a long list of excellent candidates, including himself, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and current Governor Christopher Waller [1] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman will end in May next year, while his term as a Board member will last until January 2028 [1] Group 2 - Mnuchin criticized the Fed officials' interpretation of the impact of Trump's tariffs, claiming their analysis is somewhat flawed [2] - He noted that manufacturers and many retailers have absorbed a significant portion of the tariff costs, and many retailers' profit margins became very robust during the pandemic [2] - Mnuchin expressed surprise at Mohamed El-Erian's call for Powell to resign, emphasizing that an internal review of the Fed's activities could benefit both Powell and the institution [2]

智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部长贝森特周三表示，目前"不急于"确定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，候 选人可能来自现任美联储理事会成员或地区联储主席。不过，他并未透露具体名字。 有报道指出，贝森特本人、美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)、前美联储理事凯文·沃 什(Kevin Warsh)以及现任美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller)都在美国总统特朗普考虑的美 联储主席候选人名单之中。对此，贝森特回应称："名单很长，很长。""我不会讨论具体的遴选流程， 但我们确实已经启动了相关进程。""显然，这将是特朗普总统的决定，我们并不急于做出决定。" 值得一提的是，贝森特在周二表示："没有任何因素表明鲍威尔现在应该辞职，他一直是一位优秀的公 仆。"贝森特在表态中支持美联储主席鲍威尔完成任期，并认为如果鲍威尔希望完成任期至5月，他应该 这样做。这一表态与美国政府其他官员近期对鲍威尔的批评形成鲜明对比。但与此同时，贝森特也重申 了希望对美联储进行审查的意愿。 据悉，贝森特在上周接受采访时就曾表示，鲍威尔应在2026年5月美联储主席任期结束后同时辞去美联 储理事职务，如果鲍威 ...