美国财政部长贝森特于周一确认了五位接替美联储主席鲍威尔的最终候选人名单。美国总统特朗普表 示，预计将在今年年底前做出最终决定。 贝森特在"空军一号"上透露，候选人范围已缩小至五人，分别是现任美联储理事会成员克里斯托弗沃 勒、米歇尔鲍曼，前美联储理事凯文沃什，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文哈西特，以及贝莱德高管里克 里德。 负责主导此次遴选的贝森特重申，他计划开展新一轮面试，并期望在感恩节假期后向特朗普提交一 份"优质候选人名单"。 特朗普本人也表示，他预计将在今年年底前确定提名人选。 "现在在位的这个人一点都不明智，"特朗普在接受采访时再次对鲍威尔提出一贯批评，称鲍威尔因未能 大幅降息，阻碍了美国经济发展。 目前，外界普遍预计，美联储政策制定者将在10月29日结束的两天政策会议上，宣布将利率下调25个基 点。这将是美联储连续第二次降息。而在政策制定者重启降息之前，特朗普曾表示，希望美联储将利率 下调300个基点。 此外，特朗普周一同时重申，预计贝森特不会离开现任职务执掌美联储。 据了解，下任主席很可能将获得为期14年的美联储理事任期，该职位将于2026年初空缺，而鲍威尔的主 席任期将于明年5月届满。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has accelerated the search for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with speculation surrounding potential candidates, including Kugler's successor and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller [1][3][4]. Group 1: Resignation and Implications - Adriana Kugler announced her resignation effective August 8, which was earlier than expected, raising questions about her successor and the future leadership of the Federal Reserve [1][4]. - The vacancy created by Kugler's departure provides an opportunity for President Trump to appoint a "shadow chair" to the Federal Reserve Board, potentially influencing the selection of the next Fed Chair [1][5]. Group 2: Potential Candidates - UBS analysts suggest that Kugler's successor could be positioned to become the next Federal Reserve Chair, with current Fed Governor Waller also being a potential candidate [3][6]. - The report indicates that the new appointee will likely fill Kugler's position and may be elevated to Chair when Powell's term ends in May next year [3][5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The appointment of a new governor may exacerbate existing divisions within the Federal Reserve, as the potential successor will work alongside current Chair Jerome Powell, complicating communication and increasing internal tensions [6]. - Recent FOMC meetings have already shown dissent among board members, marking the first time since 1993 that two governors opposed a decision, indicating a growing divide within the Federal Reserve [6].

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has accelerated the race for the next Fed Chair, prompting the White House to consider appointing a successor to Jerome Powell to fill Kugler's vacant position [3][4][5]. Group 1: Implications of Kugler's Resignation - Kugler's unexpected resignation opens a window for the White House to strategically position the next Fed Chair candidate [3][4]. - The White House is urged to quickly appoint Powell's successor to fill Kugler's seat, as Powell's continued tenure as a governor after his chairmanship could limit the pool of candidates for the new chair [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Considerations - UBS analysts suggest that appointing a "designated successor" to work alongside the current chair could complicate future policy communications and increase internal tensions within the FOMC [7]. - The early vacancy of Kugler's position allows the White House to submit a nomination to the board, thus advancing the selection process for the next chair [7]. Group 3: Potential Candidates - Discussions regarding potential candidates for the Fed Chair position are intensifying, with names such as Treasury Secretary Becerra, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh being mentioned [8]. - Current Fed Governor Christopher Waller is also seen as a contender, particularly after his dissenting vote in a recent FOMC meeting [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, stated that there is no urgency in determining the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with potential candidates possibly coming from the current Board of Governors or regional Fed presidents [1] - Mnuchin mentioned a long list of excellent candidates, including himself, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and current Governor Christopher Waller [1] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman will end in May next year, while his term as a Board member will last until January 2028 [1] Group 2 - Mnuchin criticized the Fed officials' interpretation of the impact of Trump's tariffs, claiming their analysis is somewhat flawed [2] - He noted that manufacturers and many retailers have absorbed a significant portion of the tariff costs, and many retailers' profit margins became very robust during the pandemic [2] - Mnuchin expressed surprise at Mohamed El-Erian's call for Powell to resign, emphasizing that an internal review of the Fed's activities could benefit both Powell and the institution [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, stated that there is currently "no rush" to determine the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, indicating that candidates may come from current Fed board members or regional Fed presidents [1] - Mnuchin mentioned that he supports Powell completing his term and believes he has been an excellent public servant, contrasting with recent criticisms from other government officials [1][2] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman will end in May next year, while his term as a Fed board member lasts until January 2028 [2] Group 2 - Mnuchin expressed surprise at Mohamed El-Erian's call for Powell to resign, stating that an internal review of Fed activities could benefit both Powell and the institution [3] - He emphasized that the "mission creep" of the Fed is threatening its monetary policy independence and suggested that an internal review could be a good starting point [3] - Mnuchin confirmed that regular meetings with Powell are ongoing, indicating consistent communication between them [3]