当地时间26日，特朗普在谈及美联储时称，需要100%光明磊落的人。对于莉萨·库克，特朗普称已准备 好进行法律斗争，心中已有接替库克的合适人选。 特朗普还称，可能会让白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰转任美联储其他长期职位。此前，特朗普提名斯蒂 芬·米兰担任美联储理事。 当地时间8月26日，美联储理事莉萨·库克的律师阿贝·洛厄尔宣布，将对特朗普解雇库克的行为提起诉 讼。 美国总统特朗普25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克。这一被媒体称为"史无前 例"的做法引发争议，库克回应称特朗普无权解雇她，将继续履职。库克通过律师阿贝·洛厄尔回应称， 特朗普总统将其解雇缺乏法律依据及相关权力。"我将继续履行我的职责，帮助美国经济。"洛厄尔表 示："我们将采取一切必要措施，阻止其非法行为。" 特朗普：已有人选接替美联储理事库克 声明称，国会通过《联邦储备法》规定，理事的任期为长期固定，总统只有在"有正当理由"的情况下才 能将其免职。理事的长期任期和免职保护是一项重要的保障，确保货币政策决策基于数据、经济分析和 美国人民的长远利益。美联储将继续履行法律赋予的职责。 声明称，库克已通过其律师表示将寻求司法裁决。美联储将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has accelerated the search for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with speculation surrounding potential candidates, including Kugler's successor and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller [1][3][4]. Group 1: Resignation and Implications - Adriana Kugler announced her resignation effective August 8, which was earlier than expected, raising questions about her successor and the future leadership of the Federal Reserve [1][4]. - The vacancy created by Kugler's departure provides an opportunity for President Trump to appoint a "shadow chair" to the Federal Reserve Board, potentially influencing the selection of the next Fed Chair [1][5]. Group 2: Potential Candidates - UBS analysts suggest that Kugler's successor could be positioned to become the next Federal Reserve Chair, with current Fed Governor Waller also being a potential candidate [3][6]. - The report indicates that the new appointee will likely fill Kugler's position and may be elevated to Chair when Powell's term ends in May next year [3][5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The appointment of a new governor may exacerbate existing divisions within the Federal Reserve, as the potential successor will work alongside current Chair Jerome Powell, complicating communication and increasing internal tensions [6]. - Recent FOMC meetings have already shown dissent among board members, marking the first time since 1993 that two governors opposed a decision, indicating a growing divide within the Federal Reserve [6].

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic negative factors have led to a decline in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, with market focus shifting to the pressures of global trade friction on the economy, particularly after the record trade deficit data was released [1] Trade Deficit - The trade deficit in March expanded to a record $140.5 billion, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year, significantly exceeding economists' expectations [4] - The increase in trade deficit is primarily attributed to businesses importing large quantities of goods to avoid potential tariff costs ahead of new tariffs being implemented [4] - Market analysts believe that as the surge in imports nears its end, this trend is expected to ease in the coming months, supported by declining survey data and port container shipping volumes [4] Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The decline in two-year Treasury yields indicates that investors are increasingly anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with traders expecting three rate cuts this year, the first possibly in September [6] - However, the decision for further easing by the Federal Reserve will depend on economic data performance, with the stronger-than-expected April non-farm payroll report slightly cooling market bets on rate cuts [6] - Investors remain cautious due to increased market uncertainty, as the Fed may not implement comprehensive monetary easing despite concerning economic data [6] Supply Chain Issues - Analysts from BlackRock Investment Institute suggest that U.S. economic performance this year may be hampered by supply-side issues, with tariff policies potentially leading to supply bottlenecks similar to those experienced during the pandemic [7] - This situation will force the Federal Reserve to make difficult choices between supporting economic growth and curbing inflation [7] - Overall, global trade friction, the potential impacts of tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will be key factors influencing the U.S. economic trajectory in the coming months [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment data indicates a slowdown in private sector job growth, raising concerns among economists and investors about the overall economic environment [2][4]. Employment Data Summary - In February, the ADP reported an increase of 77,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 140,000, with the previous month's figure revised up to 186,000, marking the smallest increase since July 2024 [2]. - Job losses were primarily concentrated in the services sector, particularly in trade, transportation, utilities, education, and healthcare [2]. - Employment changes by sector in February: - Trade/Transportation/Utilities: Decreased by 33,000 jobs, following an increase of 56,000 in January [2]. - Construction: Increased by 26,000 jobs, up from 3,000 in January [2]. - Professional/Business Services: Increased by 27,000 jobs, compared to 14,000 in January [2]. - Manufacturing: Increased by 18,000 jobs, reversing a decrease of 13,000 in January [2]. - Financial Services: Increased by 26,000 jobs, up from 13,000 in January [2]. Economic Outlook - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that uncertainty in policy and a slowdown in consumer spending may have contributed to the recent layoffs and hiring hesitance [4]. - The rising number of unemployment claims and concerns about future unemployment rates are indicative of a cooling labor market [4]. - Market attention is focused on the upcoming government non-farm payroll report, which could further confirm fears of an economic slowdown and influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [4][5]. - Economists expect the non-farm payroll report to show an increase of 153,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4% [5].