过去一段时间，美国总统特朗普频繁批评美联储主席鲍威尔"降息太慢"，并多次暗示将很快公布下一任 美联储主席的人选。对于美联储主席之位将花落谁家，外界猜测纷纷。 而眼下，随着美联储理事库格勒意外宣布提前卸任，谁将填补她在理事会的职位空缺成为市场关注的焦 点。原因在于，库格勒的继任者极有可能成为下一任美联储主席。 上周五，美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒宣布将于8月8日正式辞去职务。库格勒近期主张在"一段时间 内"保持关键利率不变。她上周还因个人原因缺席了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。 库格勒的理事任期原定于2026年1月31日结束，其提前离职为特朗普更快地将"影子主席"安排进美联储 理事会提供了良机。 当地时间8月3日，特朗普表示，未来几天将提名新任美联储理事。 国际大行瑞银日前发布报告称，库格勒的意外辞职，使得鲍威尔继任者的遴选工作被迫提前启动。白宫 提名的接替美联储理事库格勒的人选最终可能成为下一任美联储主席。 不过该行也指出，也存在其他人成为下一任美联储主席的可能性，比如现任美联储理事沃勒。 包括Amanda Wilcox在内的瑞银经济学家指出了一条可能的路径：鲍威尔继任者最初将被任命填补库格 勒的职位空 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic negative factors have led to a decline in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, with market focus shifting to the pressures of global trade friction on the economy, particularly after the record trade deficit data was released [1] Trade Deficit - The trade deficit in March expanded to a record $140.5 billion, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year, significantly exceeding economists' expectations [4] - The increase in trade deficit is primarily attributed to businesses importing large quantities of goods to avoid potential tariff costs ahead of new tariffs being implemented [4] - Market analysts believe that as the surge in imports nears its end, this trend is expected to ease in the coming months, supported by declining survey data and port container shipping volumes [4] Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The decline in two-year Treasury yields indicates that investors are increasingly anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with traders expecting three rate cuts this year, the first possibly in September [6] - However, the decision for further easing by the Federal Reserve will depend on economic data performance, with the stronger-than-expected April non-farm payroll report slightly cooling market bets on rate cuts [6] - Investors remain cautious due to increased market uncertainty, as the Fed may not implement comprehensive monetary easing despite concerning economic data [6] Supply Chain Issues - Analysts from BlackRock Investment Institute suggest that U.S. economic performance this year may be hampered by supply-side issues, with tariff policies potentially leading to supply bottlenecks similar to those experienced during the pandemic [7] - This situation will force the Federal Reserve to make difficult choices between supporting economic growth and curbing inflation [7] - Overall, global trade friction, the potential impacts of tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will be key factors influencing the U.S. economic trajectory in the coming months [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment data indicates a slowdown in private sector job growth, raising concerns among economists and investors about the overall economic environment [2][4]. Employment Data Summary - In February, the ADP reported an increase of 77,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 140,000, with the previous month's figure revised up to 186,000, marking the smallest increase since July 2024 [2]. - Job losses were primarily concentrated in the services sector, particularly in trade, transportation, utilities, education, and healthcare [2]. - Employment changes by sector in February: - Trade/Transportation/Utilities: Decreased by 33,000 jobs, following an increase of 56,000 in January [2]. - Construction: Increased by 26,000 jobs, up from 3,000 in January [2]. - Professional/Business Services: Increased by 27,000 jobs, compared to 14,000 in January [2]. - Manufacturing: Increased by 18,000 jobs, reversing a decrease of 13,000 in January [2]. - Financial Services: Increased by 26,000 jobs, up from 13,000 in January [2]. Economic Outlook - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that uncertainty in policy and a slowdown in consumer spending may have contributed to the recent layoffs and hiring hesitance [4]. - The rising number of unemployment claims and concerns about future unemployment rates are indicative of a cooling labor market [4]. - Market attention is focused on the upcoming government non-farm payroll report, which could further confirm fears of an economic slowdown and influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [4][5]. - Economists expect the non-farm payroll report to show an increase of 153,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4% [5].