格隆汇2月4日｜美国参议院银行委员会的民主党成员周二要求共和党委员会主席、参议员蒂姆-斯科特 （Tim Scott）推迟对前美联储理事沃什的提名程序，沃什是特朗普总统选定的下一任美国中央银行主 席。信中说："几个月来，特朗普总统及其政府一再试图通过恐吓来影响美联储，包括对美联储理事丽 莎-库克和美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔展开刑事调查，"信中提到司法部对库克涉嫌在抵押贷款申请中弄 虚作假以及鲍威尔涉嫌向参议院银行委员会谎报美联储总部翻修工程一事展开调查。库克否认自己有不 当行为，并在最高法院审理的一起案件中提起诉讼，要求阻止特朗普解雇她。鲍威尔说，司法部对他的 调查是政府试图对美国中央银行的货币政策决策施加不当控制的广泛企图的一部分。委员会排名第一的 成员伊丽莎白-沃伦和她在委员会中的所有10位民主党同事写道："我们要求你们推迟对沃什先生的任何 提名程序，直到涉及鲍威尔主席和库克行长的借口性犯罪调查结束之后。"特朗普周五表示，他已选定 沃什在鲍威尔领导美联储的任期于5月中旬结束后接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席。 ...

以此衡量，目前第一项仍然成立——1月21日最高法院计划就特朗普试图罢免美联储理事库克一案听取 的口头辩论或将揭示其能否延续。第二项将在特朗普提名（且参议院审议）接替鲍威尔出任主席的人选 时面临严峻考验。第三项已经在发挥作用，多名美国共和党参议员对刑事调查表达了不同程度的不安。 曾经在美联储担任高级经济学家的上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授胡捷在接受第一财经采访也表 示，更换美联储主席并不一定能解决特朗普对美联储的主要不满：特朗普希望降低利率，但新任主席无 法单独实现这一目标。利率由联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）设定，该委员会目前由鲍威尔领导。 威尔康认为，政府近期加大对美联储施压反而损害了特朗普的利益。 1月11日，美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔启动刑事调查的消息将特朗普与美联储之间的斗争推向了新 高度。 到目前为止，对美联储的最新攻击似乎未能奏效。但美国总统特朗普能在他离任前，成功"掌控"美联储 吗？ 彭博经济研究美国经济研究主任威尔康（David W Wilcox）在最新一期深度分析报告中提出，传统上， 美联储货币政策决策要摆脱总统政治控制的三大关键要素包括：确保美国总统撤换理事必须有"正当理 由"，不能因 ...

当地时间26日，特朗普在谈及美联储时称，需要100%光明磊落的人。对于莉萨·库克，特朗普称已准备 好进行法律斗争，心中已有接替库克的合适人选。 特朗普还称，可能会让白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰转任美联储其他长期职位。此前，特朗普提名斯蒂 芬·米兰担任美联储理事。 当地时间8月26日，美联储理事莉萨·库克的律师阿贝·洛厄尔宣布，将对特朗普解雇库克的行为提起诉 讼。 美国总统特朗普25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克。这一被媒体称为"史无前 例"的做法引发争议，库克回应称特朗普无权解雇她，将继续履职。库克通过律师阿贝·洛厄尔回应称， 特朗普总统将其解雇缺乏法律依据及相关权力。"我将继续履行我的职责，帮助美国经济。"洛厄尔表 示："我们将采取一切必要措施，阻止其非法行为。" 特朗普：已有人选接替美联储理事库克 声明称，国会通过《联邦储备法》规定，理事的任期为长期固定，总统只有在"有正当理由"的情况下才 能将其免职。理事的长期任期和免职保护是一项重要的保障，确保货币政策决策基于数据、经济分析和 美国人民的长远利益。美联储将继续履行法律赋予的职责。 声明称，库克已通过其律师表示将寻求司法裁决。美联储将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has accelerated the search for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with speculation surrounding potential candidates, including Kugler's successor and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller [1][3][4]. Group 1: Resignation and Implications - Adriana Kugler announced her resignation effective August 8, which was earlier than expected, raising questions about her successor and the future leadership of the Federal Reserve [1][4]. - The vacancy created by Kugler's departure provides an opportunity for President Trump to appoint a "shadow chair" to the Federal Reserve Board, potentially influencing the selection of the next Fed Chair [1][5]. Group 2: Potential Candidates - UBS analysts suggest that Kugler's successor could be positioned to become the next Federal Reserve Chair, with current Fed Governor Waller also being a potential candidate [3][6]. - The report indicates that the new appointee will likely fill Kugler's position and may be elevated to Chair when Powell's term ends in May next year [3][5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The appointment of a new governor may exacerbate existing divisions within the Federal Reserve, as the potential successor will work alongside current Chair Jerome Powell, complicating communication and increasing internal tensions [6]. - Recent FOMC meetings have already shown dissent among board members, marking the first time since 1993 that two governors opposed a decision, indicating a growing divide within the Federal Reserve [6].

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic negative factors have led to a decline in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, with market focus shifting to the pressures of global trade friction on the economy, particularly after the record trade deficit data was released [1] Trade Deficit - The trade deficit in March expanded to a record $140.5 billion, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year, significantly exceeding economists' expectations [4] - The increase in trade deficit is primarily attributed to businesses importing large quantities of goods to avoid potential tariff costs ahead of new tariffs being implemented [4] - Market analysts believe that as the surge in imports nears its end, this trend is expected to ease in the coming months, supported by declining survey data and port container shipping volumes [4] Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The decline in two-year Treasury yields indicates that investors are increasingly anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with traders expecting three rate cuts this year, the first possibly in September [6] - However, the decision for further easing by the Federal Reserve will depend on economic data performance, with the stronger-than-expected April non-farm payroll report slightly cooling market bets on rate cuts [6] - Investors remain cautious due to increased market uncertainty, as the Fed may not implement comprehensive monetary easing despite concerning economic data [6] Supply Chain Issues - Analysts from BlackRock Investment Institute suggest that U.S. economic performance this year may be hampered by supply-side issues, with tariff policies potentially leading to supply bottlenecks similar to those experienced during the pandemic [7] - This situation will force the Federal Reserve to make difficult choices between supporting economic growth and curbing inflation [7] - Overall, global trade friction, the potential impacts of tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will be key factors influencing the U.S. economic trajectory in the coming months [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment data indicates a slowdown in private sector job growth, raising concerns among economists and investors about the overall economic environment [2][4]. Employment Data Summary - In February, the ADP reported an increase of 77,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 140,000, with the previous month's figure revised up to 186,000, marking the smallest increase since July 2024 [2]. - Job losses were primarily concentrated in the services sector, particularly in trade, transportation, utilities, education, and healthcare [2]. - Employment changes by sector in February: - Trade/Transportation/Utilities: Decreased by 33,000 jobs, following an increase of 56,000 in January [2]. - Construction: Increased by 26,000 jobs, up from 3,000 in January [2]. - Professional/Business Services: Increased by 27,000 jobs, compared to 14,000 in January [2]. - Manufacturing: Increased by 18,000 jobs, reversing a decrease of 13,000 in January [2]. - Financial Services: Increased by 26,000 jobs, up from 13,000 in January [2]. Economic Outlook - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that uncertainty in policy and a slowdown in consumer spending may have contributed to the recent layoffs and hiring hesitance [4]. - The rising number of unemployment claims and concerns about future unemployment rates are indicative of a cooling labor market [4]. - Market attention is focused on the upcoming government non-farm payroll report, which could further confirm fears of an economic slowdown and influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [4][5]. - Economists expect the non-farm payroll report to show an increase of 153,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4% [5].