Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that overall economic activity in the U.S. has not changed significantly, with some regions reporting slight to moderate growth, while others show stagnation or slight declines [1] - The report highlights that inflation is being driven up by tariffs imposed by the government, leading to challenges for businesses in absorbing costs or passing them on to customers [2][3] - The labor market remains stable, but demand is generally weak across most Federal Reserve districts [1][2] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with stable employment levels but low demand for labor across various sectors [1][3] - Employers are resorting to layoffs and natural attrition to reduce workforce numbers due to weak demand and economic uncertainty [1][3] - Immigration policies are contributing to labor shortages in industries such as hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing [1] Inflation and Consumer Spending - Rising costs from imports, tariffs, and service expenses are accelerating input costs for businesses, with some passing these costs onto consumers [2][6] - Overall consumer spending has slightly declined, particularly in retail, with a growing divide in spending patterns among different income groups [2][7] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident, with core goods inflation rising, particularly in categories like clothing and vehicles [6][7] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its trend of interest rate cuts, with a consensus for further reductions in October and December [8][9] - The current economic environment presents a complex scenario of employment risks and inflation pressures, influencing the Fed's monetary policy decisions [9][10] - The potential for a more dovish Federal Reserve leadership in the future could lead to increased rate cuts, especially in response to significant economic downturn signals [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Recent weak labor market data has strengthened Bowman’s support for multiple interest rate cuts this year, suggesting that a rate cut in September would help avoid unnecessary deterioration in labor market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Bowman emphasizes the need for three interest rate cuts this year due to signs of weakness in the labor market, with July data showing only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months [5] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating further labor market concerns [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Bowman has shifted from supporting a stable interest rate policy earlier this year to advocating for rate cuts, having voted against maintaining rates in July alongside fellow board member Waller [4][5] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged throughout the year, but Bowman’s recent statements indicate a more dovish stance [3][4] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Bowman reiterated her view that tariff-induced price increases are unlikely to have a lasting impact on inflation, suggesting that confidence in the absence of sustained inflationary pressure from tariffs is growing [2][5] - She believes that the risks to price stability are diminishing as the outlook on tariffs and inflation becomes clearer [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has shifted to a more dovish stance, supporting three interest rate cuts this year and urging the central bank to initiate a cut in September [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent weak labor market data has reinforced Bowman's view in favor of multiple rate cuts, suggesting that a September cut would help avoid unnecessary deterioration in labor market conditions [1] - In July, employers added only 73,000 jobs, which was below expectations, and previous months' job growth data was revised down by nearly 260,000 [2] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating signs of labor market weakness [2] Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - Bowman reiterated her belief that price increases driven by tariffs are unlikely to sustain upward pressure on inflation, suggesting that the risks to price stability have diminished [1][2] - Confidence is growing that tariffs will not have a lasting impact on inflation, which supports her argument for rate cuts [2] Group 3: Policy Shift - Bowman's shift in monetary policy stance is notable, as she previously supported maintaining interest rates but has now aligned with calls for a 25 basis point cut, marking a significant change in her position [1] - Her support for rate cuts comes after a rare dissenting vote alongside Governor Waller during the July Federal Reserve decision, highlighting a divergence in views among Fed officials [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, stated that there is currently "no rush" to determine the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, indicating that candidates may come from current Fed board members or regional Fed presidents [1] - Mnuchin mentioned that he supports Powell completing his term and believes he has been an excellent public servant, contrasting with recent criticisms from other government officials [1][2] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman will end in May next year, while his term as a Fed board member lasts until January 2028 [2] Group 2 - Mnuchin expressed surprise at Mohamed El-Erian's call for Powell to resign, stating that an internal review of Fed activities could benefit both Powell and the institution [3] - He emphasized that the "mission creep" of the Fed is threatening its monetary policy independence and suggested that an internal review could be a good starting point [3] - Mnuchin confirmed that regular meetings with Powell are ongoing, indicating consistent communication between them [3]

Group 1 - International gold prices remained stable, closing at $3327.60 per ounce, with a slight decline of approximately 0.13% [1] - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, contributing to a price pullback in recent trading days [1] - Investors are focusing on the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [1] Group 2 - The gold market experienced fluctuations, with prices reaching a high of around $3350 before dropping to a low of approximately $3310, indicating a choppy trading environment [2] - The technical outlook suggests a bearish trend in the short term, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact as long as gold does not fall below $3280 [2] - Key price levels to watch include $3355 for resistance and $3300 for support, with a focus on the impact of PCE data on market movements [4] Group 3 - Domestic gold prices showed little movement, fluctuating between gains and losses, with the Shanghai gold price around 775 and other gold products at approximately 768 [5] - There is an expectation for a potential bullish reversal in the gold market, with targets set at 795 for Shanghai gold and 785 for other gold products, contingent on maintaining the bullish trend [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. In the short term, with geopolitical risks easing and trade tariff negotiations not in a sensitive period, the market is expected to remain volatile at high levels. Short - term corrections are seen as medium - to long - term buying opportunities. The key support for London gold is at $3300, and for London silver is in the $34.8 - 35 range [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to adjust. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3338.5 per ounce, down 1.66%; COMEX silver 2507 contract closed at $35.88 per ounce, up 0.41%. SHFE gold 2508 contract closed at 771.86 yuan per gram, down 1.26%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8739 yuan per kilogram, up 0.09%. During the conflict period, London gold rose from $3300 to $3450 and then retraced to around $3300. The warming expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year limited the decline of precious metals [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 81.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 18.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 14.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 70%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 15.4%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 5.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 34.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 50.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 9.8%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.7 tons to 955.7 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 73.5 tons to 14877.5 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 16.9 tons to 1247.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1357.8 tons as of the week ending June 20 [3] This Week's Focus - This week, the focus is on the US PCE data on Friday night. In terms of events, attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, progress in trade tariff negotiations, and changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. On Wednesday at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will give testimony on the semi - annual monetary policy report to the Senate Committee. On Friday at 02:30, ECB President Lagarde will speak, and at 19:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will chair a meeting at the 24th BIS Annual Meeting [4][5] Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: Data on the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver futures, as well as SHFE - TD spreads and CME gold - silver ratio are provided [7] - **Inventory and Holdings**: Data on the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE gold and silver holdings, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings are presented [17] - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview**: Data on the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil, LmeS copper, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread are provided [23]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The dot plot indicates two expected rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, unchanged from March, but the number of officials not expecting cuts has increased[2] - Economic outlook revisions show a decrease in GDP growth expectations and an increase in unemployment and PCE inflation forecasts for the next two years[2] Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Powell expressed concerns about tariffs potentially raising prices and creating persistent inflationary pressures, with uncertainty about the overall impact of tariffs on inflation[2][6] - The uncertainty index for U.S. trade policy decreased to 5846.74, returning to March levels, indicating reduced negative impacts from tariff policies[6] - Despite stable employment data, inflation risks are heightened, with expectations of noticeable inflation increases in the coming months[8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls showing a decline, reflecting a moderate economic slowdown[7] - Recent data indicates a significant drop in retail sales by 0.9% in May, the largest decline in two years, and a 0.2% decrease in industrial output[12] - Initial jobless claims rose to 248,000, the highest since October 2024, suggesting increasing difficulty in the labor market[12]