Core Viewpoint - Recent weak labor market data has strengthened Bowman’s support for multiple interest rate cuts this year, suggesting that a rate cut in September would help avoid unnecessary deterioration in labor market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Bowman emphasizes the need for three interest rate cuts this year due to signs of weakness in the labor market, with July data showing only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months [5] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating further labor market concerns [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Bowman has shifted from supporting a stable interest rate policy earlier this year to advocating for rate cuts, having voted against maintaining rates in July alongside fellow board member Waller [4][5] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged throughout the year, but Bowman’s recent statements indicate a more dovish stance [3][4] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Bowman reiterated her view that tariff-induced price increases are unlikely to have a lasting impact on inflation, suggesting that confidence in the absence of sustained inflationary pressure from tariffs is growing [2][5] - She believes that the risks to price stability are diminishing as the outlook on tariffs and inflation becomes clearer [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has shifted to a more dovish stance, supporting three interest rate cuts this year and urging the central bank to initiate a cut in September [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent weak labor market data has reinforced Bowman's view in favor of multiple rate cuts, suggesting that a September cut would help avoid unnecessary deterioration in labor market conditions [1] - In July, employers added only 73,000 jobs, which was below expectations, and previous months' job growth data was revised down by nearly 260,000 [2] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating signs of labor market weakness [2] Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - Bowman reiterated her belief that price increases driven by tariffs are unlikely to sustain upward pressure on inflation, suggesting that the risks to price stability have diminished [1][2] - Confidence is growing that tariffs will not have a lasting impact on inflation, which supports her argument for rate cuts [2] Group 3: Policy Shift - Bowman's shift in monetary policy stance is notable, as she previously supported maintaining interest rates but has now aligned with calls for a 25 basis point cut, marking a significant change in her position [1] - Her support for rate cuts comes after a rare dissenting vote alongside Governor Waller during the July Federal Reserve decision, highlighting a divergence in views among Fed officials [1]

智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部长贝森特周三表示，目前"不急于"确定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，候 选人可能来自现任美联储理事会成员或地区联储主席。不过，他并未透露具体名字。 有报道指出，贝森特本人、美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)、前美联储理事凯文·沃 什(Kevin Warsh)以及现任美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller)都在美国总统特朗普考虑的美 联储主席候选人名单之中。对此，贝森特回应称："名单很长，很长。""我不会讨论具体的遴选流程， 但我们确实已经启动了相关进程。""显然，这将是特朗普总统的决定，我们并不急于做出决定。" 值得一提的是，贝森特在周二表示："没有任何因素表明鲍威尔现在应该辞职，他一直是一位优秀的公 仆。"贝森特在表态中支持美联储主席鲍威尔完成任期，并认为如果鲍威尔希望完成任期至5月，他应该 这样做。这一表态与美国政府其他官员近期对鲍威尔的批评形成鲜明对比。但与此同时，贝森特也重申 了希望对美联储进行审查的意愿。 据悉，贝森特在上周接受采访时就曾表示，鲍威尔应在2026年5月美联储主席任期结束后同时辞去美联 储理事职务，如果鲍威 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices remained stable, closing at $3327.60 per ounce, with a slight decline of approximately 0.13% [1] - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, contributing to a price pullback in recent trading days [1] - Investors are focusing on the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [1] Group 2 - The gold market experienced fluctuations, with prices reaching a high of around $3350 before dropping to a low of approximately $3310, indicating a choppy trading environment [2] - The technical outlook suggests a bearish trend in the short term, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact as long as gold does not fall below $3280 [2] - Key price levels to watch include $3355 for resistance and $3300 for support, with a focus on the impact of PCE data on market movements [4] Group 3 - Domestic gold prices showed little movement, fluctuating between gains and losses, with the Shanghai gold price around 775 and other gold products at approximately 768 [5] - There is an expectation for a potential bullish reversal in the gold market, with targets set at 795 for Shanghai gold and 785 for other gold products, contingent on maintaining the bullish trend [5]

南华贵金属日报: 地缘风险缓和PK降息预期回暖 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月25日 【行情回顾】 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线在地缘风险缓和以及贸易关税谈判未进入敏感期等环境下，预计整体仍高位震荡，关 注这些风险短期变化以及降息预期波动，我们仍将短线回调视为中长期做多机会。伦敦金关键支撑3300，伦 敦银关键支撑34.8-35区域。 贵金属期现价格表 | | 单位 | 最新价 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE黄金主连 | 元/克 | 771.86 | -9.44 | -1.21% | | SGX黄金TD | 元/克 | 768.71 | -9.23 | -1.19% | | CME黄金主力 | 美元/盎司 | 3338.5 | -45.9 | -1.36% | | SHFE白银主连 | 元/千克 | 8739 | -31 | -0.35% | | SGX白银TD | 元/千克 | 8709 | -21 | -0.24% | | CME白银主力 | 美元/盎 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The dot plot indicates two expected rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, unchanged from March, but the number of officials not expecting cuts has increased[2] - Economic outlook revisions show a decrease in GDP growth expectations and an increase in unemployment and PCE inflation forecasts for the next two years[2] Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Powell expressed concerns about tariffs potentially raising prices and creating persistent inflationary pressures, with uncertainty about the overall impact of tariffs on inflation[2][6] - The uncertainty index for U.S. trade policy decreased to 5846.74, returning to March levels, indicating reduced negative impacts from tariff policies[6] - Despite stable employment data, inflation risks are heightened, with expectations of noticeable inflation increases in the coming months[8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls showing a decline, reflecting a moderate economic slowdown[7] - Recent data indicates a significant drop in retail sales by 0.9% in May, the largest decline in two years, and a 0.2% decrease in industrial output[12] - Initial jobless claims rose to 248,000, the highest since October 2024, suggesting increasing difficulty in the labor market[12]