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宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20251106
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 01:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is to observe the 4000 - dollar mark's long - short game due to short - term pressure from a strong dollar index and a 10% high - level retracement, with a mid - term view of oscillation and a reference view of waiting and seeing [1][3] - For copper, the long - term view is positive, considering the tight supply situation after the price correction. The mid - term view is upward, and the short - term is to pay attention to overseas COMEX copper inventory and domestic policy implementation [1][4] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Situation**: Last week, the gold price dropped to $4000 and then oscillated, with the domestic Shanghai gold stabilizing around 900 yuan. The short - term gold price has retreated about 10% from its high [3] - **Driving Factors**: The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index has significantly pressured the gold price. After the October Fed meeting, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts decreased, leading to the continuous strengthening of the US dollar index [3] Copper - **Price Situation**: At the end of October, the main copper contract reached a record high of 89,000 yuan/ton and then declined. The price has fallen back to around the key support level of 85,000 yuan/ton [4] - **Driving Factors for the Correction**: - Macro - sentiment change: The previous macro - level positives such as Fed rate cuts and new Sino - US tariff agreements have been digested by the market, and the sentiment has returned to rationality [4] - US dollar strengthening: The rebound of the US dollar index has made copper more expensive for holders of other currencies, suppressing demand [4] - Technical pressure: After the price reached a record high, it triggered profit - taking by long - position holders [4] - **Future Outlook**: The tight supply situation has limited further price drops. It is necessary to continue to monitor overseas COMEX copper inventory and the implementation of domestic "anti - involution" policies [4]
宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2025年11月5日)-20251105
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are respectively "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with a reference view of "wait - and - see". The core logic is the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance. For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "rise", "rise", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with a reference view of "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - economic easing, mine - end production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **View**: Intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" [1][3]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, the gold price weakened again. The main contract price of Shanghai gold futures dropped from around 920 yuan to below 910 yuan. The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index has significantly pressured the gold price. After the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts decreased, leading to a continuous strengthening of the US dollar index. The New York gold price fell below $4000 again, and the technical support at $3900 can be continuously monitored [3]. Copper (CU) - **View**: Intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", medium - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" [1][4]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, the domestic macro - economic situation weakened, and the copper price decreased significantly with a reduction in positions. Short - term bulls had a strong willingness to close their positions. Overseas, after the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, LME copper prices dropped significantly. The Fed's hawkish stance and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations led to a rebound in the US dollar index, which is negative for the copper price. In addition, the copper price has risen significantly since late September and is facing pressure at historical highs in the short term, so bulls have a strong willingness to close their positions. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support at the 85,000 - yuan mark [4].
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20251031
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 03:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term and mid - term views are "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term and mid - term views are "rising", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight downward bias", and the reference view is "bullish in the long - term". The core logic is macro - economic easing, mine production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: The gold price has rebounded recently, approaching the $4050 mark [3]. - **Market Expectation**: After the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut in October, the internal policy divergence and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts have led to a decline in the market's expected probability of a December rate cut. After the APEC Sino - US summit, tariff relaxation policies were introduced, and the market showed a rebound trend after the positive news was digested. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $4000 mark [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: After the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, LME copper prices dropped significantly. Copper prices have increased significantly in the short - term and are facing historical high - level pressure, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Since late October, as the gold price has weakened, the copper price has been strong, and the gold - copper ratio has dropped significantly [4]. - **Market Expectation**: The Fed's internal policy divergence and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts have cooled the rate - cut expectation, which is negative for copper prices. In the long run, since late September, the expectation of supply contraction has increased, and copper prices have risen significantly with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $11,000 mark for LME copper [4].