Core Insights - Gold prices surged past $4,600 per ounce, marking a historic high driven by geopolitical uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy fluctuations [1] - The surge in gold prices reflects heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets amid concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] Geopolitical Factors - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that Iran is prepared for any potential military actions from the U.S., indicating a readiness for a strong response [2] - Hungary's Foreign Minister warned that military involvement by the UK and France in Ukraine could lead to direct conflict between NATO and Russia, potentially dragging Hungary into war [2] - Greenland's autonomous government rejected U.S. takeover, emphasizing its status as part of Denmark and NATO, and warned that military actions could lead to NATO's dissolution [2] Market Reactions - Silver prices also saw a significant increase, reaching a historic high of $86.24 per ounce, closing at $85.15, with a rise of 6.5% [2] - The small market capacity of silver makes it more sensitive to capital inflows, resulting in more pronounced price movements compared to gold [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - Recent price movements indicate a potential "false breakout" above the $4,600 level, driven more by fundamental news than technical indicators [3] - The market is currently experiencing a high volatility phase, with potential for price corrections if supportive news does not materialize [3] - Key support levels to watch include $4,560 and $4,520, while resistance remains at the $4,600 mark [3] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to be released include the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which may influence market sentiment [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The current financial market is experiencing a typical risk-averse trading pattern, with significant inflows into precious metals as U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar face pressure, leading to a surge in gold prices [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices soared nearly 2% on January 13, closing at $4,597 per ounce, with an intraday peak of $4,630, reflecting heightened investor interest in safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy turmoil [1][7]. - Silver prices also surged, reaching a historical high of $86.24 per ounce before closing at $85.15, marking a 6.5% increase, driven by its smaller market capacity and sensitivity to capital inflows [10]. Group 2: Fundamental Drivers - The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the Trump administration has emerged as a key catalyst for the surge in gold prices, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][9]. - The U.S. Department of Justice's threat to pursue criminal charges against Powell regarding his testimony on a $2.5 billion renovation project has intensified market anxieties [2][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif indicated Iran's readiness for any potential U.S. military actions, emphasizing a well-prepared military stance compared to previous conflicts [3][10]. - Hungary's Foreign Minister warned that military involvement by the UK and France in Ukraine could escalate direct conflicts with Russia, posing risks to neighboring countries [3][10]. - Greenland's autonomous government rejected any U.S. takeover, asserting its status as part of Denmark and NATO, warning that such actions could lead to the end of NATO [3][10]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical analysis of gold indicates a complex short-term direction, with recent geopolitical tensions reigniting market risk aversion, leading to emotional trading patterns [4][11]. - A breakthrough above the $4,580-$4,600 resistance level is viewed as a potential "false breakout," reliant on continued positive fundamental support to maintain strength [4][11]. - The market is currently in a corrective phase, with key support levels to watch at $4,560 and potential gaps to fill around $4,520-$4,510 [4][11]. Group 5: Trading Recommendations - A trading strategy suggests short positions near $4,610 with a stop-loss at $4,620, targeting a decline towards $4,580-$4,570, while remaining aware of the market's emotional state and dependence on fundamental news [5][12].