Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global major risk assets continue to show a strong trend at the beginning of 2026, driven by expectations of artificial intelligence capital expenditure, robust corporate earnings, and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1][2] - The S&P 500 index recorded an annual increase of over 16% in 2025, maintaining a bull market structure since October 2022, despite a high interest rate environment [1] - Institutions are optimistic about corporate profit growth in 2026, with expectations that the overall profit growth of S&P 500 constituents may exceed 15%, indicating a broader industry expansion rather than being concentrated in a few tech giants [1][3] Group 2 - In the artificial intelligence sector, infrastructure investment and application scenario expansion are viewed as medium-term support, as long as there are no signs of systemic cuts in AI investment by companies [2] - The path of interest rates remains a significant factor influencing market sentiment, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may further ease in 2026, especially if the economy slows moderately and inflation continues to decline [2] - The Bank of England has lowered its benchmark interest rate to 3.75% and emphasized a cautious approach to future rate cuts, indicating that the pound's performance will depend more on dollar fluctuations than solely on UK factors [3] Group 3 - The current market is in a phase of "support with verification needed," where the upward potential of risk assets coexists with volatility risks until corporate earnings, AI investment sustainability, and policy direction become clearer [3] - The combination of resilient corporate earnings, AI investment expectations, and major central bank policy tendencies is driving the synchronized strength of global risk assets at the beginning of the year [3] - Despite the overall stability in the market, there are multiple uncertainties in 2026, including mid-term elections, international relations, and policy communication risks, which may lead to structural differentiation in asset performance [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting, with a 91% probability of another rate cut in December [1] - Market participants are closely watching Chairman Powell's post-meeting speech to gauge the future pace of monetary easing, which could impact the dollar's yield and support for precious metals [1] - The dollar index (DXY) has shown resilience, recovering to around 98.90, despite strong rate cut expectations, influenced by stabilizing US-China relations and some investors closing positions [1] Group 2 - Spot gold is maintaining above $3950, with active buying at lower levels, as traders await the Federal Reserve's decision [2] - If the Fed's policy statement is dovish, gold prices may test the psychological level of $4000 and potentially challenge the $4050 to $4100 range [2] - The upcoming US-China summit may improve trade sentiment, while US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the ongoing government shutdown add to geopolitical uncertainties [2]