UNforex 1月2日讯（分析师 Simon）受人工智能资本开支预期、企业盈利稳健以及美联储政策取向多重 因素推动，2026 年开局全球主要风险资产延续偏强格局。美股在 2025 年连续第三年录得双位数涨幅 后，市场风险偏好保持稳定；同时，美元阶段性承压，也为英镑等非美货币提供修复空间。 回顾 2025 年，美国股市在高利率背景下仍保持稳健上涨，标普 500 指数全年涨幅超过 16%，延续自 2022 年 10 月以来的牛市结构。展望 2026 年，机构普遍认为，美股能否延续上行趋势，将取决于三大 核心条件是否同步成立：企业盈利能否向更广泛行业扩散、人工智能相关投资能否持续兑现，以及美联 储是否保持偏鸽立场。 从盈利角度看，市场对 2026 年企业利润增长仍持乐观态度。多家机构预计，标普 500 成分股整体盈利 同比增幅可能超过 15%，且增长动力不再高度集中于少数科技巨头，而是逐步向更广泛行业扩散。这 一趋势有助于缓解估值压力，并延长牛市周期。 在人工智能板块，尽管此前市场对资本开支回报率存疑，但整体来看，基础设施投入与应用场景拓展仍 被视为中期支撑。机构指出，只要企业未出现系统性削减 AI 投资的迹象， ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting, with a 91% probability of another rate cut in December [1] - Market participants are closely watching Chairman Powell's post-meeting speech to gauge the future pace of monetary easing, which could impact the dollar's yield and support for precious metals [1] - The dollar index (DXY) has shown resilience, recovering to around 98.90, despite strong rate cut expectations, influenced by stabilizing US-China relations and some investors closing positions [1] Group 2 - Spot gold is maintaining above $3950, with active buying at lower levels, as traders await the Federal Reserve's decision [2] - If the Fed's policy statement is dovish, gold prices may test the psychological level of $4000 and potentially challenge the $4050 to $4100 range [2] - The upcoming US-China summit may improve trade sentiment, while US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the ongoing government shutdown add to geopolitical uncertainties [2]