Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting, with a 91% probability of another rate cut in December [1] - Market participants are closely watching Chairman Powell's post-meeting speech to gauge the future pace of monetary easing, which could impact the dollar's yield and support for precious metals [1] - The dollar index (DXY) has shown resilience, recovering to around 98.90, despite strong rate cut expectations, influenced by stabilizing US-China relations and some investors closing positions [1] Group 2 - Spot gold is maintaining above $3950, with active buying at lower levels, as traders await the Federal Reserve's decision [2] - If the Fed's policy statement is dovish, gold prices may test the psychological level of $4000 and potentially challenge the $4050 to $4100 range [2] - The upcoming US-China summit may improve trade sentiment, while US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the ongoing government shutdown add to geopolitical uncertainties [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Trump regarding a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 has triggered a significant sell-off in global capital markets, particularly affecting U.S. tech stocks and Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [1][10] Market Impact - U.S. stock markets faced their most severe challenge of the year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 878.82 points (1.9%), the S&P 500 falling 182.6 points (2.71%), and the Nasdaq Composite plunging 3.56%, marking its largest single-day decline since April [2][4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 6.1%, with a cumulative weekly decline of 8.37%, indicating a sharp downturn in Chinese stocks [1][8] Sector Performance - The technology sector was particularly hard hit, with major tech stocks experiencing significant declines: TSMC ADR down over 6%, Nvidia, Amazon down over 4%, and Apple, Meta down over 3% [4][7] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw a substantial drop of 6.32%, with ARM down over 9% and AMD, Qualcomm down over 7% [7] Chinese Stocks - Chinese companies listed in the U.S. faced a dual blow, with notable declines: NIO and Kingsoft Cloud down over 10%, Bilibili down over 9%, and Baidu, Alibaba, and XPeng down over 8% [1][9] - The FTSE A50 futures also suffered, dropping over 4%, suggesting potential pressure on A-shares at the upcoming opening [9] Broader Economic Context - The market turmoil is compounded by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has entered its 10th day, leading to significant layoffs of federal employees, marking a departure from previous practices during government shutdowns [10]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - Clients believe that China's growth target of around 5% is likely to be achieved due to resilient export demand, although concerns exist about a significant slowdown in exports after the summer [1] - There is a prevailing pessimism regarding the real estate market, with expectations of continued declines in housing prices and a contraction in real estate investment extending into next year [1] - Many clients anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation may remain negative for the year, and there is little hope for additional policy stimulus unless economic data deteriorates rapidly [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Clients express concerns about potential escalation in trade tensions as the July 9 deadline approaches, but most believe that the peak of uncertainty has passed [2] - Despite trade uncertainties, some international clients are increasing investments in Chinese production infrastructure due to cost efficiency and product quality advantages [2] - Investors expect the USD/CNY exchange rate to remain stable, although there are notable downside risks, with many anticipating a further weakening of the dollar in the medium term [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In a low-yield and low-volatility environment, investors are seeking alternative investment opportunities, with some asset management firms increasing their equity allocations for better returns [3] - The upcoming QDII quota issuance allows qualified investors to expand their investments in overseas securities, with attention on potential improvements to the interconnectivity mechanism during the upcoming Bond Connect anniversary summit [3] Group 4: Views on U.S. Interest Rates - There is a divergence in client views regarding U.S. fiscal risks, with some preferring tactical trading in the middle of the yield curve while others are increasing holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 20-year bonds, due to attractive yields [5] - Clients are considering hedging duration risk as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 4.3% [5]

今天美国那边又双叒叕整出新活，这剧情比八点档还刺激，反转多得让人直呼"救命"，我愿称之为《美中贸易风云之迷惑行为大赏》！ 咱就是说，美国这波操作，妥妥的"精分现场"！一会释放缓和信号，给市场喂颗"定心丸"；一会又搞点幺蛾子，让人摸不着头脑。就像一个人，这边说要 和你好好做朋友，转头又在背后说你坏话，主打一个"迷惑行为"。也难怪网友调侃："这剧情，编剧都不敢这么写！" 咱们先把镜头对准美国财政部长贝森特。这位大佬一开口，直接在私人投资者会议上甩出"重磅炸弹"——美中贸易谈判虽然是场"马拉松"，但大家都知道 关税僵局是"死胡同"，贸易战在"不远的将来"会踩刹车！这话一放出来，美股三大指数瞬间"打鸡血"，集体飙升超2.5%！好家伙，资本市场这反应，简直 像听到"全场五折"的剁手党，跑得比兔子还快。 话说回来，美中贸易关系这盘大棋，可不是美国单方面"自嗨"就能决定的。谈判桌上的博弈，讲究的是诚意和共赢，光靠嘴上说说、搞点"烟雾弹"，可糊 弄不了人。咱就搬好小板凳，坐等后续剧情发展，看看美国这场"戏"还能整出什么新花样！毕竟，在国际舞台上，实力才是硬道理，光靠"嘴皮子功夫"， 终究是纸老虎，一戳就破！ 这边贝森特刚"画 ...