UNforex 1月2日讯（分析师 Simon）受人工智能资本开支预期、企业盈利稳健以及美联储政策取向多重 因素推动，2026 年开局全球主要风险资产延续偏强格局。美股在 2025 年连续第三年录得双位数涨幅 后，市场风险偏好保持稳定；同时，美元阶段性承压，也为英镑等非美货币提供修复空间。 回顾 2025 年，美国股市在高利率背景下仍保持稳健上涨，标普 500 指数全年涨幅超过 16%，延续自 2022 年 10 月以来的牛市结构。展望 2026 年，机构普遍认为，美股能否延续上行趋势，将取决于三大 核心条件是否同步成立：企业盈利能否向更广泛行业扩散、人工智能相关投资能否持续兑现，以及美联 储是否保持偏鸽立场。 从盈利角度看，市场对 2026 年企业利润增长仍持乐观态度。多家机构预计，标普 500 成分股整体盈利 同比增幅可能超过 15%，且增长动力不再高度集中于少数科技巨头，而是逐步向更广泛行业扩散。这 一趋势有助于缓解估值压力，并延长牛市周期。 在人工智能板块，尽管此前市场对资本开支回报率存疑，但整体来看，基础设施投入与应用场景拓展仍 被视为中期支撑。机构指出，只要企业未出现系统性削减 AI 投资的迹象， ...

"美国投资者在大力投资中国人工智能""外国投资者重返中国股市""市场对中国的兴趣和求知欲空前高 涨"……连日来，国际社会高度关注中国经济部署，多以"增长""稳定性""投资""人工智能"等为关键词进 行报道。今年以来，国际资本以显著态势回流中国市场，尤其是围绕人工智能等新技术领域，外资加 码、机构回流、长期资金增配的信号更趋清晰。早在今年2月，英国《金融时报》即发表文章，称"中国 市场究竟是否值得投资？答案是肯定的，而且一直如此"。 当前中国科技企业在多个赛道上出现的集体性上扬，正体现出穿越成长期后的爆发式增长。国际资本对 中国科技资产的回流，是看好中国企业由能力积累转向规模扩张、由局部突破转向体系竞争的阶段性变 化。在这背后，是中国为发展人工智能产业提供稳定政策支持，并致力于从根本上增强对全球优质要素 资源的吸附力与粘合力。 近日举行的中央经济工作会议部署了"深化拓展'人工智能+'，完善人工智能治理""深化外商投资促进体 制机制改革"任务；"加快人工智能等数智技术创新""落实好'准入又准营'，缩减外资准入负面清单"等也 作为中国未来五年的发展目标被写入"十五五"规划建议。这对外释放出一个清晰的信号：中国的开放 ...

格隆汇12月10日｜三个月前，甲骨文强劲的盈利前景推动股价创下三十年来最佳单日表现，但仅仅一个 季度后，公司及整个AI板块的形势已大不相同。甲骨文将于盘后公布财报，其股价自9月10日触及历史 高点以来已暴跌33%。人工智能公司正面临一波质疑浪潮，原因在于巨额资本支出以及部分合作安排存 在循环交易性质。"他们几乎已将资产负债表拉伸到极限，自由现金流为负，杠杆率极高，"持有甲骨文 股票的Argent Capital Management投资组合经理Jed Ellerbroek表示。甲骨文的债务风险尤其令投资者担 忧。近几个月来，该公司通过直接发债及间接支持的项目已发行数百亿美元债券。上周针对甲骨文债务 违约的保险成本升至2009年3月以来最高水平。分析师表示，这种不确定性远超其季度财报可能带来的 任何利好。 ...

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's latest report highlights the complexities and uncertainties facing global trade, predicting a strong performance in the first half of the year but a bleak outlook for the second half and into 2026 [1] Trade Volume and Growth Forecast - Global merchandise trade volume is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, with a significant slowdown to 0.5% in 2026, primarily due to trade policy uncertainties [2] - In the first half of 2025, U.S. companies engaged in stockpiling goods in anticipation of rising tariffs, leading to an unexpected surge in imports, particularly in machinery, equipment, and non-durable goods [2] - The short-term boost in global merchandise trade volume, which saw a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, is not sustainable, with North American trade flows expected to negatively impact growth in 2025 and 2026 [2] Artificial Intelligence Trade Growth - Trade in artificial intelligence-related goods saw a year-on-year increase of over 20% in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing other categories and driving overall trade growth [3] - The growth in AI-related trade is attributed to investments in digital infrastructure and is not limited to developed countries, with emerging markets also playing a crucial role [3] - AI technology is reshaping trade dynamics by enhancing innovation and industrial upgrades, allowing emerging markets to better participate in international trade [3] Service Trade Trends - Global service trade grew by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from previous years, with expectations of continued deceleration due to economic growth slowdowns and geopolitical tensions [4] - Despite current challenges, the long-term outlook for service trade remains optimistic, particularly with the rise of digital services as emerging markets develop economically [4] Trade Policy Impact - Trade policy uncertainties are impacting global trade by affecting corporate investment, consumer spending, and supply chain stability, leading to increased costs [4] - The report emphasizes the need for transparent and coordinated trade policies to enhance business confidence and promote trade investment [5] Recommendations for Trade Development - The report suggests several measures to address current trade challenges, including enhancing policy transparency, coordinating trade policies, and supporting developing countries to improve their trade competitiveness [5] - Promoting digital economy development and green trade initiatives are also highlighted as essential for sustainable global trade growth [5]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's latest report indicates that while global trade showed strong performance in the first half of the year, the outlook for the second half and into 2026 is pessimistic due to rising tariffs and increased trade policy uncertainty [1] Group 1: Global Trade Performance - Global merchandise trade volume is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, but the growth rate is expected to drop to 0.5% in 2026, primarily due to trade policy uncertainty [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. imports surged beyond expectations as companies stockpiled goods in anticipation of future tariff increases, leading to a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global merchandise trade volume [2] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence Trade Growth - Trade in artificial intelligence-related goods grew by over 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing other goods and becoming a key driver of trade growth [3] - The growth in AI-related trade is attributed to investments in digital infrastructure and includes contributions from both developed and emerging markets, with East Asia remaining a major supply chain hub [3] Group 3: Service Trade Trends - Global service trade grew by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, a slowdown compared to previous years, with expectations of continued deceleration in 2025 and 2026 due to economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions [4] - Despite the current slowdown, there is optimism for long-term growth in service trade, particularly driven by the development of the digital economy and increasing demand from emerging markets [4] Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Trade policy uncertainty impacts global trade by affecting business investment, consumer spending, supply chain stability, and trade costs, leading to a more cautious approach from companies [4] Group 5: Recommendations for Trade Development - To address the challenges facing global trade, measures such as enhancing trade policy transparency, improving policy coordination, and supporting developing countries' trade competitiveness are recommended [5] - Promoting digital economy development and green trade initiatives are also suggested to facilitate trade and ensure sustainable growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut reflects ongoing challenges in the labor market and inflation, with a cautious monetary policy stance expected to continue [1][4][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year [1][4] - Future rate cuts are anticipated, potentially lowering rates to around 3.5%, indicating a response to economic data and external pressures [2][5] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Despite signs of economic cooling, there are no large-scale layoffs, and consumer spending remains stable, suggesting the U.S. economy may continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years [6] - The current economic environment is characterized as "neither hot nor cold," with inflation close to neutral levels and a manageable unemployment rate [5][6] Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - Recent stock market gains are primarily driven by corporate earnings growth, particularly from investments in artificial intelligence, which have lowered financing costs and boosted valuations [2][8] - The market's upward trend is supported by declining interest rates and increasing corporate profits, leading to optimistic projections for the S&P 500 index [12] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - Consumer confidence is weakening, with many retail investors becoming more cautious, yet institutional investors remain focused on fundamental factors, leading to a divergence in market sentiment [11][12] - The ongoing investment in AI-related sectors is seen as a key driver for future profitability, although the sustainability of these investments will be crucial for maintaining market valuations [9][13]

Group 1 - The recent decline in U.S. tech stocks indicates the fragility of AI-driven trading, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping approximately 2% over the past week [1] - Nvidia's stock fell by 3.5%, resulting in a market cap loss of over $155 billion, while Palantir Technologies has seen a six-day consecutive decline, losing $73 billion in market value [1] - Tech stocks had previously surged over 50% from their April lows, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 29% increase during the same period, leading to high valuations [1] Group 2 - Investors are cautious about the excessive rise in AI-driven tech stocks, with Nvidia's stock up about 30% and Palantir's stock doubling this year [2] - The tech sector's price-to-earnings ratio has reached around 30 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, the highest level in a year [2] - A study from MIT indicates that 95% of organizations have not seen returns on AI investments, contributing to investor caution [2] Group 3 - Market sentiment is cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual symposium, with an 84% probability of a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [3] - Investors are adjusting their positions in anticipation of Powell's remarks, which could influence market volatility, especially for high-valuation tech stocks [3][4] - Seasonal trends suggest that August and September are traditionally weak months for the S&P 500, prompting investors to reduce risk exposure [4]

Core Insights - The establishment of the Central Innovation District (CID) in Shangcheng is aimed at driving high-quality development through a comprehensive innovation revolution, addressing the challenges of urban growth and development bottlenecks [2][3][4] Strategic Decisions - The CID initiative is characterized by proactive engagement and strategic choices, positioning Shangcheng's development within national and regional frameworks, and contributing to broader goals such as common prosperity and global innovation leadership [2][3] Innovation Framework - The CID represents an evolution from traditional Central Business Districts (CBD) to a model that integrates artificial intelligence, focusing on creating a vibrant innovation ecosystem with enhanced innovation platforms and higher industrial capabilities [5][6] Industry Restructuring - The CID's structure is defined by a "1+5" functional matrix, where "1" refers to the embodiment of intelligent leading areas, and "5" includes various specialized zones such as the Qiantang Financial Harbor and the Smart Fashion Consumption District, all aimed at fostering a comprehensive innovation ecosystem [7][8] Financial Integration - The financial sector in Shangcheng currently accounts for about 25% of GDP, indicating significant potential for deeper integration with industrial development, with ambitions to reach an investment management scale of over 3 trillion yuan by 2030 [8]

Core Insights - Amazon plans to invest $10 billion in North Carolina for artificial intelligence innovation, which will create at least 500 new jobs [1] Investment Details - The investment amount is $10 billion aimed at enhancing artificial intelligence capabilities [1] - The initiative is expected to generate a minimum of 500 new job opportunities in the region [1]