股指期货温和整理 市场仍在消化政策层面的不稳定因素 来源：外汇百科堂 周二亚洲时段，黄金延续前一日的上行走势，在4230美元附近保持稳固整理。近期美国公布的多项宏观 指标持续走软，市场围绕美联储12月可能进一步放松政策的讨论重新升温。在股指期货整体平稳的背景 下，交易员正依据疲弱制造业数据、政策路径的潜在延迟以及美联储领导层相关消息，对仓位进行再平 衡。 黄金高位盘整 更接近关键阻力区间 早盘中，金价一度逼近4230美元水平，创下近六周高点。ISM制造业PMI连续九个月维持在收缩区间， 最新读数降至48.2，使市场对美国实际增长动能的信心再度承压。利率市场也随之调整，目前针对12月 降息25个基点的押注升至87%，成为支撑金价的重要因素。不过，高位区域也在不断产生压力。随着金 价阶段性走高，中国内地实物购金因成本与税负的双重因素而略有降温，使得金价在突破时容易出现反 复拉锯的行情。 数据发布不完整 12月决议面临信息空白期 因美国政府停摆时间已久，多项关键官方数据发布节奏受到影响，市场目前能依赖的核心指标并不多。 本周ADP就业数据与ISM服务业指数因此格外受到关注，而核心PCE通胀数据同样是影响短线预期的重 ...

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury bonds experienced a mild increase on Tuesday, with yields fluctuating within a narrow range as the stock market faced declines, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors regarding high valuations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - US Treasury yields fell by 2-3 basis points across various maturities, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.085%, down 2.5 basis points, approaching the day's low [1] - The S&P 500 index declined by approximately 1.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 index fell by about 2% during the trading session [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Wall Street executives warned investors to prepare for a potential pullback in the stock market from high valuation levels, contributing to the negative sentiment [1] - There was a notable demand for upward hedging in SOFR options, reflecting an increasing expectation for a loosening of Federal Reserve policies [1] Group 3: SOFR Options Activity - A significant trade in SOFR options involved a dovish hedge, betting on two rate cuts before the March 18 policy meeting next year, which is more dovish than the current market's implied expectation of a total cut of 35 basis points over the next three meetings [1] Group 4: Treasury Futures Trading - Trading volume in Treasury futures remained subdued, reaching only 75% of the 20-day average by 3 PM Eastern Time [1] Group 5: Yield Data - As of 3 PM Eastern Time, the following Treasury yields were reported: - 2-year yield at 3.5799% - 5-year yield at 3.6993% - 10-year yield at 4.0871% - 30-year yield at 4.6676% - The spread between the 5-year and 30-year yields was 96.65 basis points, while the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields was 50.51 basis points [1]