格隆汇2月11日｜路透调查：101名受访经济学家中有60人认为，美联储将在6月底前将联邦基金利率下 调25个基点至3.25%-3.50%的区间（1月份调查无共识）。53位受访经济学家中49人认为，主要风险在于 凯文·沃什领导下的美联储可能将货币政策设定得过为宽松。57受访位经济学家中，有41位对鲍威尔任 期结束后美联储独立性受到削弱的情况表示担忧。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup strategists recommend investors to increase bets on a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve and a weakening dollar due to potential threats to the Federal Reserve's independence from President Trump [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Strategists, including Adam Pickett and Dirk Willer, suggest a slight increase in steepening yield curve trades, betting that 30-year Treasuries will underperform 5-year Treasuries [1] - They also recommend going long on the euro against the dollar through derivatives [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - Concerns regarding the weakening of the Federal Reserve's independence are expected to manifest primarily through a weaker dollar and a steepening yield curve [1] - Citigroup had already positioned for this trade in May, anticipating that Trump's tax cuts would increase government debt, thereby putting pressure on long-term Treasuries [1] Group 3: Political Influence - Trump's push to remove a Federal Reserve governor and potentially exert greater influence over regional Federal Reserve banks reinforces the logic behind the steepening yield curve trade [1] - The risk of Trump's intervention may undermine the Federal Reserve's credibility in combating inflation, leading to higher long-term Treasury yields [1]