近期，黄金价格突破3500美元创下历史新高，吸引全球投资者的目光。 然而，野村证券最新研究显示，三大关键指标同时发出警报信号，预示黄金市场可能即将迎来一波"技术性回调"，且调整幅度或"相当可观"。 野村经济学家团队追踪的"美联储综合预期资本开支指数"(Composite Regional Fed Planned Capex Index)最近跌破-4。 该指数汇总了各区域联储调查数 据，按经济贡献度加权平均计算。 直观地看，当该指数大幅跌入负值区间时，"实际核心资本货物订单"通常会在随后出现断崖式下滑，反映关税政策已对实体经济产生实质拖累。 野村在报告中写道， 这一指标的预警能力极强——在过去6次触发中，有5次成功预示了经济衰退。 同时，罗素指数（代表经济敏感型/周期性行业）在未来3 个月内通常呈现极度负面走势，而10年期国债收益率在随后2周至1个月内先上升，之后转为下行。 | | | | | RTY Forward Returns Composite Fed Planned Capex Index Falls Below -4 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - Recent surge in gold prices has reached a historical high of over $3,500, attracting global investor attention [1] - The Composite Regional Fed Planned Capex Index has recently dropped below -4, indicating potential economic slowdown [3][6] - Historical data shows that when this index falls significantly into negative territory, actual core capital goods orders tend to decline sharply, reflecting the impact of tariff policies on the real economy [4] Group 2 - Nomura's report indicates that three key indicators are signaling a potential "technical correction" in the gold market, with the adjustment possibly being substantial [7] - The report highlights that when the Composite Regional Fed Planned Capex Index drops below -4, gold performance tends to be poor in the following two months [8] Group 3 - A significant anomaly in fund flows has been observed, with GLD experiencing over 95% historical levels of inflow followed by a similar level of outflow, indicating potential panic selling among late investors [10][11] - Historical patterns suggest that such "big in, big out" scenarios have preceded gold price corrections, typically within the next two months [11] Group 4 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are currently more than 25% above the 200-day moving average, a level described as "pretty absurd," indicating a need for market correction [14][15] - Historical data indicates that significant deviations from the 200-day moving average often lead to noticeable corrections in gold prices within the subsequent two months [15] Group 5 - Recent data indicates that investors withdrew $1.27 billion from the SPDR Gold ETF, marking the largest single-day outflow since 2011, coinciding with gold prices reaching historical highs [13] - The 2011 outflow was associated with the peak of the last super cycle in gold, leading to a prolonged consolidation period until 2020, providing a historical reference for current market conditions [13]