Core Insights - The total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remain unchanged at 1,038.92 tons as of October 28, 2025, despite fluctuations in gold prices [5] - Gold prices have experienced a downward trend, dropping to a low of $3,886.80 per ounce, the lowest level since October 6, 2025, with a closing price of $3,952.54 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of $28.56 or 0.72% [5] - The signing of a rare earth supply agreement between the U.S. and Japan has injected optimism into the market, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5] Market Trends - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the second cut since September and the first since December 2024 [6] - The focus will shift to Jerome Powell's speech, where dovish comments could boost gold prices, while hawkish tones may limit upward momentum [6] - Central banks, including the Bank of Korea, are considering increasing gold reserves, which could provide additional support for gold prices [6] Technical Analysis - Gold has seen a correction after a more than 30% increase since late August, with potential for further downside [7] - Key support levels are identified between $3,900 and $3,890, with a decisive break below this range opening up further declines towards $3,800 [7] - Initial resistance is near $4,000, with stronger resistance between $4,050 and $4,150, where multiple moving averages converge [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has faced a significant technical correction, leading to substantial declines in gold ETFs and related stocks, while other metals like copper and rare earths are undergoing a revaluation process [1][4]. Summary of Gold ETFs and Stocks - Following a record high on October 20, gold prices plummeted on October 21, with London spot gold dropping 5.31% to $4,124.36 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013 [1]. - Gold stock ETFs experienced notable declines, with the Guotai CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF falling 7.60%, leading the market, while several others saw declines exceeding 6% [1][2]. - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains for various gold ETFs, with some increasing over 80%, while others rose more than 50% [2]. Cautious Approach to Gold Volatility - Analysts indicate that gold price fluctuations reflect market confidence in the global monetary system, with gold often becoming a key asset during shifts in central bank policies [3]. - The recent downturn is attributed to an overheated market following rapid price increases, necessitating a technical correction [3][4]. Revaluation of Non-Gold Metals - The precious metals market is experiencing volatility, with copper maintaining strong performance despite concerns over supply and demand [4]. - The investment landscape for non-gold metals is categorized into three segments: precious metals, industrial metals, and rare metals, each influenced by different factors such as geopolitical risks and supply-demand dynamics [4][5]. Investment Outlook for Various Metals - The recent correction in gold is linked to easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking, yet it retains long-term asset allocation value [5]. - Silver's future remains uncertain, closely tied to geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve actions [5]. - Copper faces a "double weakness" scenario in supply and demand, while rare earths are expected to maintain a positive outlook due to their strategic importance [5][6].

黄金在创下历史高位后快速下跌，现货金从4179.47美元/盎司跌约60美元至4125美元附近。市场避险需 求有所回落，加之美联储降息预期已充分反映，金价上涨承压。尽管地缘风险仍在，黄金避险属性未消 失，但短期技术性回调难以避免。相对强弱指数（RSI）显示，金价可能需经过一段盘整期。若跌破 4060-4055美元支撑区，黄金或进一步回落至心理关口4000美元。 在当前环境下，黄金短期承压，尤其在美元与美债表现强势背景下。投资者应关注美联储降息路径和风 险情绪变化，避免情绪化操作。外汇市场方面，欧元兑美元技术弱势仍存，若空头格局未有效修复，欧 元可能继续承压。交易黄金和欧元时，应合理控制仓位，关注即将公布的宏观经济数据与政策信号。 全球不确定性上升背景下，美元避险需求持续增加。美元指数稳定在99.00附近，美国利率相对较高， 进一步强化美元避险属性。美国政府停摆、贸易紧张以及全球经济疲软，为美元提供持续支撑。10年期 美债收益率突破4.0%大关，凸显美债避险需求。全球资金流入美债，也支撑了美元短期走势，使其强 势格局延续。 全球资产波动加剧，美元与美债避险需求预计持续吸引资金。投资者将关注美联储降息路径、中美贸易 ...

Group 1 - Recent surge in gold prices has reached a historical high of over $3,500, attracting global investor attention [1] - The Composite Regional Fed Planned Capex Index has recently dropped below -4, indicating potential economic slowdown [3][6] - Historical data shows that when this index falls significantly into negative territory, actual core capital goods orders tend to decline sharply, reflecting the impact of tariff policies on the real economy [4] Group 2 - Nomura's report indicates that three key indicators are signaling a potential "technical correction" in the gold market, with the adjustment possibly being substantial [7] - The report highlights that when the Composite Regional Fed Planned Capex Index drops below -4, gold performance tends to be poor in the following two months [8] Group 3 - A significant anomaly in fund flows has been observed, with GLD experiencing over 95% historical levels of inflow followed by a similar level of outflow, indicating potential panic selling among late investors [10][11] - Historical patterns suggest that such "big in, big out" scenarios have preceded gold price corrections, typically within the next two months [11] Group 4 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are currently more than 25% above the 200-day moving average, a level described as "pretty absurd," indicating a need for market correction [14][15] - Historical data indicates that significant deviations from the 200-day moving average often lead to noticeable corrections in gold prices within the subsequent two months [15] Group 5 - Recent data indicates that investors withdrew $1.27 billion from the SPDR Gold ETF, marking the largest single-day outflow since 2011, coinciding with gold prices reaching historical highs [13] - The 2011 outflow was associated with the peak of the last super cycle in gold, leading to a prolonged consolidation period until 2020, providing a historical reference for current market conditions [13]