[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 2025年9月30日 周 浩 +852 2509 7582 hao.zhou@gtjas.com.hk 4.00 4.02 4.04 4.06 4.08 4.10 3.40 3.50 3.60 (%) (%) 美国2年期国债收益率 美国10年期国债收益率（右轴） 2:30 鲍威尔讲话 2:00 决议发布 [Table_Summary] 降息大幕开启，美债能看多做多么？ 9 月 FOMC 会议前后美债利率走势呈 V 字形 资料来源： Bloomberg, 国泰君安国际。 研 究 报 告 研 究 报 告 海 外 宏 观 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 6 证 券 宏 观 美联储召开 9 月 FOMC 会议，仅新任理事米兰投票反对并支持 50bp 降息，包括 上次会议投出反对票的理事沃勒和鲍曼在内的其他 11 位委员均赞成降息 25bp， 并未出现市场预期的较大分歧。但是，看似"团结"的美联储背后实则面临劳动 力市场与通胀数据相悖的困境，2026 年或许才是对美联储独立性的真正考验。 本次会议展现出美联储超出市场预期的一致独立性，使市场短期内不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic research and its continuous evolution, highlighting the team's commitment to providing valuable independent research outcomes for 2025 and beyond [8][10]. Group 1: Macro Investment - The article outlines ten essential readings for macro investment, tracking major asset performances and macro trends since the beginning of the year, including changes in gold, RMB/USD exchange rates, and bond yields [8]. Group 2: Domestic Economy - Six key judgments regarding the domestic economy have been made, addressing areas such as tariff impacts, policy framework shifts, and new economic drivers, which differ from mainstream market expectations [8]. Group 3: 2025 Outlook - The year 2025 is positioned as a pivotal year for the research team, focusing on restructuring research frameworks and systematically presenting research findings, adhering to the principle of providing actionable insights [8]. Group 4: Classic Review - A review of Trump's "big cycle" and the re-evaluation of the dollar exchange rate is presented, discussing global trade imbalances and the U.S. twin deficits, along with potential solutions to these issues [10]. Group 5: Excess Savings - The article discusses the phenomenon of excess savings surpassing 10 trillion, questioning who is contributing to this increase and exploring potential release paths compared to international experiences [12]. Group 6: Interest Rate Trends - The article analyzes the implications of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, examining historical patterns of long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the associated market dynamics [16]. Group 7: High-Frequency Tracking - Following the Federal Reserve's September meeting, global stock indices have generally continued to rise, indicating a positive market response to the anticipated interest rate cuts [18].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25% during its September meeting, while also revising up its economic and inflation forecasts, indicating a potential for three more rate cuts by 2025 [42][46] - The U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of a decline of 0.2%, driven by improvements in online shopping and dining services [46] Group 2 - The fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks concluded with a consensus on the TikTok issue, focusing on data security and content management, but limited progress on broader trade topics [28] - As of July, the average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on global imports was 9.75%, with a significantly higher rate of 40.36% on imports from China, contributing approximately $10.1 billion in tariff revenue [28][31]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly falling below 4.0% [1][3] - Since the early 1970s, the Federal Reserve has experienced 12 interest rate cut cycles, with 5 occurring in a soft landing environment and 7 in a hard landing context [5][6] - In soft landing scenarios, the average interest rate cut is about 234 basis points (bps) over an average duration of 9 months, while in hard landing scenarios, the average cut is 647 bps over 20 months [5][6] Group 2 - The macroeconomic logic behind different interest rate patterns is influenced by the nature of the economic landing, affecting the slope and space of U.S. Treasury yields [2][27] - In preventive rate cuts, the decline in Treasury yields is smaller and rebounds sooner, while in recessionary cuts, the recovery in yields occurs later [2][28] - The low point of the 10-year Treasury yield is often associated with the pace of rate cuts, with faster cuts leading to earlier lows [2][28] Group 3 - Despite the restart of rate cuts, the potential for further declines in the 10-year Treasury yield may be limited due to rising long-term nominal neutral rates in the range of 3-3.5% [3][50] - The market has priced in 4-5 rate cuts by the end of 2026, but economic forecasts suggest the Fed may only cut rates once if inflation remains above target [3][50] - The increase in term premium is expected to dominate the direction of long-term Treasury yields, with significant upward pressure from debt supply expansion and policy uncertainty [3][56]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25bps as expected during the September FOMC meeting, with indications of two more rate cuts within the year and an additional cut next year, which is more hawkish than market expectations[2] - Following the FOMC meeting, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.31bps to 4.127%, while the 2-year yield increased by 1.59bps to 3.572%[3] - The market initially reacted to a more dovish 2025 dot plot but later adjusted to a more hawkish outlook for 2026, influenced by Powell's statements[3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 1.22% and 2.21% respectively, driven by the Fed's rate cut and positive developments in U.S.-China TikTok negotiations[3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.10% to 97.64, reflecting a mixed response to the Fed's actions and economic data[3] - Gold prices initially rose by 1.16% to $3685 per ounce but later declined, indicating volatility in response to the Fed's hawkish stance[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, surpassing expectations of 0.2%, with core retail sales (excluding autos) rising by 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4%[3] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 fell to 231,000, below the expected 240,000, indicating a strengthening labor market[3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a Q3 2025 GDP growth of 3.3%, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates it at 2.1%[3] Group 4: Political Risks - The failure of temporary spending bills in the Senate raises the risk of a federal government shutdown on October 1, increasing political uncertainty in the market[4] - The potential for Trump to gain more influence over the Federal Reserve could lead to a shift from a data-dependent to a Trump-dependent policy framework, impacting future monetary policy decisions[4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly falling below 4.0% [1][3] - Since the early 1970s, the Federal Reserve has experienced 12 interest rate cut cycles, with 5 occurring in a soft landing environment and 7 in a hard landing context [5][6] - In soft landing scenarios, the average interest rate cut is about 234 basis points (bps) over an average duration of 9 months, while in hard landing scenarios, the average cut is 647 bps over 20 months [5][6] Group 2 - The macroeconomic conditions determine the slope and space of the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with preventive cuts resulting in smaller declines and earlier rebounds [2][27] - The low point of the 10-year Treasury yield often occurs 1-2 months before or after the last rate cut in preventive cut scenarios [28][75] - The timing of the low point in Treasury yields is closely related to the pace of interest rate cuts, with faster cuts leading to earlier lows [2][75] Group 3 - Despite the restart of interest rate cuts, the potential for further declines in the 10-year Treasury yield may be limited due to the rise in the long-term nominal neutral interest rate to the 3-3.5% range [3][50] - The market has priced in 4-5 rate cuts by the end of 2026, but the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once if the PCE inflation is projected at 2.6% and unemployment at 4.4% [3][50] - The increase in term premium is expected to dominate the direction of long-term Treasury yields, with the term premium rising to around 0.9% in 2025 due to expanded debt supply and policy uncertainty [3][56]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing significant challenges, particularly due to the Trump administration's attempts to influence its leadership and monetary policy decisions [2][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The Trump administration plans to appeal a court ruling that prevents the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, highlighting ongoing tensions regarding the independence of the Fed [1]. - Stephen Milan, nominated by Trump, has taken office and participated in the Fed's September interest rate decision, indicating a shift in the Fed's dynamics [1]. - Trump's potential nomination of a more dovish Fed chair next year could further influence the Fed's monetary policy direction [1][6]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - Analysts suggest that Trump's interventions may lead to a more dovish monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts exceeding current market expectations [7]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining predictable interest rate paths, and any political pressure could undermine this stability [8]. - The risk of inflation may increase if the Fed aligns its policies with Trump's preferences, potentially leading to a repeat of the inflationary trends seen in the 1970s [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - The challenges to the Fed's independence may result in higher risk premiums for U.S. dollar assets, affecting investor confidence [8][9]. - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds may steepen, with short-term rates declining more significantly than long-term rates due to changing market expectations [8]. - Concerns over fiscal sustainability and monetary independence could lead to a decline in the dollar's credit risk, prompting a shift away from the dollar by international investors [9].

Group 1 - UBS analysts suggest that the European Central Bank's rate-cutting cycle may have ended, with expectations to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the September policy meeting. This is based on anticipated large-scale fiscal stimulus from the EU, including increased defense spending and infrastructure investment in Germany, which are expected to support the economy starting in early 2026 [1] - Saxo Bank reports that silver prices have surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since September 2011, driven by macroeconomic support, industrial demand growth, and supply shortages. The current price is $40.70 per ounce, with expectations that rising US rate cut expectations will continue to boost silver alongside gold [1] - ING analysts indicate that the upcoming US non-farm payroll report will significantly influence gold prices, which have been on an upward trend. A weak report could strengthen the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September [2][3] Group 2 - MUFG analysts predict that a weak US non-farm payroll report could lead to further declines in the dollar and potentially prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, with current market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point cut [3] - Societe Generale highlights that the pound is facing downward pressure due to high inflation and low growth in the UK, presenting challenges for the Bank of England's policy [5] - CICC forecasts that US inflation pressures may continue to rise, suggesting that if rate cuts occur during high inflation periods, it could lead to a steepening of the yield curve, with the 10-year rate potentially reaching 4.8% by year-end [6] Group 3 - Huatai Securities emphasizes that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September could drive down real interest rates, benefiting gold investments. They suggest that unless the US economy returns to a high-growth, low-inflation scenario, the upward trend in gold prices may persist [6] - CITIC Securities notes that the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD may require additional catalysts to break the 7 level, with current market conditions providing support for the currency [7] - CITIC Securities also indicates that the bond market's pricing may reflect a more dominant domestic influence, suggesting that the relationship between equity and bond markets is not necessarily oppositional [8] Group 4 - CITIC Jinpu reports that lithium carbonate production in China reached a new high of over 85,000 tons in August, with a 5% month-on-month increase and a 39% year-on-year increase. The downstream demand is entering a traditional peak season, providing support for lithium prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating a shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance due to rising unemployment risks and a reassessment of inflation dynamics [2][3]. Summary by Sections Jackson Hole Meeting Insights - The annual Jackson Hole meeting serves as a platform for central bank leaders to outline future monetary policy directions, with Powell's speech focusing on the review of the monetary policy framework [2]. Shift to Dovish Stance - Powell's remarks suggest an increased concern over rising unemployment risks in a weak labor market, indicating a potential for a swift rise in unemployment rates [3]. - He downplayed previous concerns regarding tariffs' impact on persistent inflation, suggesting that any price level changes are likely to be one-time events rather than ongoing inflationary pressures [3]. Future Monetary Policy Adjustments - Powell's speech indicates a potential adjustment in policy stance if inflation data does not show significant increases, with market expectations leaning towards at least two rate cuts by the end of the year [3]. Long-term Interest Rate Dynamics - The article highlights that a decrease in short-term policy rates does not necessarily lead to a reduction in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, citing factors such as strong household balance sheets and expanding fiscal deficits [4]. - The yield curve has shown a steepening trend since the Jackson Hole meeting, with the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields increasing by 10 basis points [4].

Group 1 - The core CPI in the US for July 2025 ended a five-month streak of underperformance, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose by 0.32% [1] - The US economy is facing uncertainties, with signs of weakening consumer market momentum and cautious corporate investment, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts despite current inflation data [1] - Market expectations have shifted towards a "rate cut anticipation leading to a reinforced soft landing expectation," resulting in declines in the 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar index, while 10-year TIPS, 10-year Treasury yields, and US stocks have risen [1] Group 2 - The July PPI data indicates that tariff pressures may have been transmitted to US wholesalers, with a month-on-month increase of 0.95%, significantly exceeding the expected 0.2%, and core PPI rising by 0.92%, the highest since 2022 [2] - The impact of tariffs on wholesale, retail, and end-consumer prices remains uncertain, and the market's expectation for a September rate cut is not guaranteed due to the variability in data quality [2] - In optimistic scenarios, the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice this year, while in pessimistic scenarios, only once in October; looking ahead to mid-2026, a new Fed chair may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy with potential rate cuts ranging from 4 to 6 times next year [2] Group 3 - Prior to the September FOMC meeting, the dollar index and 2-year Treasury yield are expected to rise, reflecting a correction of overly optimistic rate cut expectations [3] - Following the September FOMC, market bets on rate cuts in 2026 are anticipated to increase, with concerns about the Fed's independence and debt sustainability likely to widen the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries [3] - Recent discussions between Trump and Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict may enhance short-term market risk appetite, potentially leading to downward pressure on gold prices as safe-haven sentiment diminishes [3]