智通财经APP获悉，东方财富陈果团队发布研究报告称，此前提示美债利率呈现上升迹象，日本央行加 息在即，需留意外部扰动，从上周市场表现来看，A股有扰动，但增量资金抢跑春季行情意愿也较强 烈，结构上内需板块尤其是非耐用品消费明显占优。春季行情经历长时间高胜率演绎，已经从日历效应 迈过抢跑博弈，进入反身性阶段，后续除可能的1月业绩预告扰动外，利空因素能见度不高，可顺应抢 跑，逢低布局。结构上具备足够赔率吸引力且胜率在上升的内需板块重视程度上移，重点关注：保险、 券商、有色、AI算力/半导体、零售/美护/社服/乳品、航空、新能源、创新药等。 春季行情演化论 随着市场参与者结构变化、信息传播速度加快、投资者学习效应增强、经济新旧动能转换，春季行情经 历了深刻的演化，可以划分为三个阶段：第一阶段，2017年及以前，日历效应阶段。行情发酵于春节 后，依赖政策驱动和流动性回流；第二阶段，2018-2023年，抢跑博弈阶段。行情启动时点明显前移至 12月，源于学习效应与市场参与结构变化；第三阶段，2024-2025年，反身性阶段。"抢跑"消耗增量资 金，遇利空易致"深坑式调整"，后续依赖产业趋势+流动性驱动。 最新的美国CPI ...

红利风格择时周报（1208-1212） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 本报告导读： 本周（20251208 至 20251212）红利风格择时模型综合因子值为-0.72，相对于上周 （20251201 至 20251205）的-0.65 略有下滑，仍保持小于 0，未发出正向信号。 投资要点： 金融工程 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.13 | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 梁誉耀(分析师) | | | 021-38038665 | | | liangyuyao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080003 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 绝对收益产品及策略周报（251201-251205） 2025.12.10 上周估值因子表现较好，本年中证 2000 指数增强 策略超额收益为 28.22% 2025.12.10 红利风格择时周报（1201-1205） 2025.12.08 风格 Smart beta ...

【 宏观】美联储如期降息，开启技术性扩表——2025年12月美联储议息会议点评 美东时间 2025 年 12 月 10 日，美联储发布议息会议声明和经济预测表格（ SEP ），随后鲍威尔例行召开新闻发布会，我们认为主要有四处边际变化： 一 是美联储降息 25BP 基本符合预期，但是美联储内部分歧加大。 12 位 FOMC 投票委员中， 3 人反对， 9 人赞成，这是 2019 年以来首次美联储利率决议 遭到三名投票委员反对。此外，在美联储点阵图中， 12 月的对于 2026 年降息预测比 9 月份更离散，也反映内部分歧加大。 二是美联储对美国经济和通胀 边际上更加乐观。 根据经济预测表格，相对于 9 月份来说，本次美联储全面上修 2025 至 2028 年的 GDP 增速预测，下修了 2027 年失业率预测，同时全 面下修了 2025 年和 2026 年 PCE 和核心 PCE 预测，美联储对美国经济和通胀更加乐观。 三是美联储开启技术性扩表，主要为应对短期隔夜市场出现的 压力。 美联储会后宣布，将在 12 月开始扩大资产负债表，购买 400 亿美元的短期国债，购买规模预计会在几个月内保持高位，随后会显著缩减 ...

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 13498, with an opening price of 13631 CNY/kg and a current price of 13563 CNY/kg, reflecting an increase of 0.48% [1] - The highest price reached was 13882 CNY/kg, while the lowest was 13450 CNY/kg, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The overall trend for silver TD remains bullish despite a slight pullback, with support levels identified between 13000-13500 and resistance levels between 13800-14000 [3] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett is reported as the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, with potential implications for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [2] - The timeline suggests that Hassett's nomination could be announced by Christmas, with the earliest he could officially take over being June 2026 [2] - The first quarter following the new chair's nomination is critical for market expectations, with potential for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar to experience fluctuations based on the new chair's stance [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if Hasset becomes the new Federal Reserve Chairman, it could lead to a temporary decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, ultimately benefiting U.S. stocks [1] - The timeline indicates that Trump will announce the new chairman nomination in early 2026, and Hasset must first be nominated as a Federal Reserve Governor and confirmed by the Senate before becoming Chairman [1] - The first quarter of next year is critical for market expectations following the new chairman's nomination, with potential for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar to decline if Hasset adopts a dovish stance [1] Group 2 - If Hasset's dovish stance does not raise concerns about the Fed's independence, expectations may align with the recovery of the U.S. economy, leading to a potential increase in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [1]

红利风格择时周报（1124-1128） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 本报告导读： 本周（20251124 至 20251128）红利风格择时模型综合因子值为-0.69，相对于上周 （20251117 至 20251121）的-0.66 基本持平，仍保持小于 0，未发出正向信号。 投资要点： | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 梁誉耀(分析师) | | | 021-38038665 | | | liangyuyao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080003 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20251128） 2025.11.30 低频选股因子周报（2025.11.21-2025.11.28） 2025.11.29 权益黄金尽墨，全球资产 BL 模型 2 本周微录正 收益 2025.11.28 绝对收益产品及策略周报（251117-251121） 2025.11.27 上周价量因子表现较 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is trading steadily above $4150, with the core driver being the strong consolidation pattern before the December policy path is finalized. The overall situation is in a "strong consolidation - waiting for a catalyst" phase [1]. - The continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year is the core factor for gold to maintain a narrow - range consolidation above $4150. Although the initial jobless claims and durable goods orders in the US are generally strong, they do not change the market's judgment on the December interest rate cut. The weak rebound of the US dollar and the low - level long - term US Treasury yields keep the downward trend of real interest rates stable, providing a clearer medium - term support for gold. In the context of thin holiday liquidity, the market shows the characteristics of "weak pullback and strong support" [3]. - If the December FOMC meeting continues the loose path, the gold price is expected to further break through $4200 and approach the previous high range again [3]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Information - Multiple US policymakers pointed out in public speeches that the slowdown in employment and the decline in inflation will continue to affect the policy direction, and they did not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts in December [2]. - European economic officials said that the eurozone needs to speed up internal capital expenditure and industrial chain adjustment to reduce its structural dependence on external demand, and the EU is studying a new round of industrial and trade coordination plan [2]. - Ukraine and Russia have carried out multiple rounds of communication on border security and infrastructure protection, and Russia reiterated the need to establish a verifiable mechanism for security arrangements to promote subsequent discussions [2]. - As of the week ended November 22, the number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 216,000, the lowest since April this year; the number of continued claims was 1.96 million; the four - week average of initial claims dropped to 223,800 [2]. - In September, non - defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased by 0.9%, orders excluding transportation equipment increased by 0.6%, and orders excluding defense increased by 0.1%. The overall durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5%, with the previous value revised up to 3%, and multiple manufacturing sub - items continued to show signs of recovery [2]. 2. Price Logic - Gold maintains a narrow - range consolidation above $4150, mainly due to the continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year. The strength of initial jobless claims and durable goods orders does not change the market's judgment on the December interest rate cut. The weak rebound of the US dollar and the low - level long - term US Treasury yields keep the downward trend of real interest rates stable, providing a clearer medium - term support for gold. In the context of thin holiday liquidity, the market shows the characteristics of "weak pullback and strong support" [3]. - The stable ETF holdings and continuous central bank gold purchases form a solid bottom for the price. Although there is still short - term technical overbought pressure, the trend momentum is gradually accumulating [3]. 3. Outlook - The weekly range for London gold is maintained at [4030 - 4200], and for London silver at [50 - 55] [4]. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices and sector indices. Among the special indices, the commodity index is 2241.06, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index is 2543.53, up 0.04%; the industrial products index is 2200.67, up 0.03%; the PPI commodity index is 1336.40, down 0.13% [46]. - For the precious metals index on November 26, 2025, the current value is 3370.94, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 4.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 52.36% [47].

- The dividend timing model's comprehensive factor value for the week of November 10-14, 2025, is -0.88, showing an improvement compared to the previous week's value of -1.06, but still below 0, indicating no positive signal[6][4] - The dividend timing model includes sub-factors such as market sentiment trend factor and dividend momentum factor. This week, the market sentiment trend factor decreased, while the dividend momentum factor increased, both contributing positively to the dividend style. However, the downward trend in U.S. Treasury yields and the recovery in analyst industry sentiment continue to negatively impact the dividend scoring, with the negative contribution from U.S. Treasury yields slightly reduced[7][4] - Factor values for specific indicators as of November 14, 2025, include: - Non-manufacturing PMI (China): -0.12 (unchanged from previous weeks)[11] - M2 YoY (China): 0.83 (unchanged from previous weeks)[11] - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: -1.51 (slightly improved from -1.55 last week)[11] - Dividend relative net value: 0.17 (improved from -0.37 last week)[11] - Dividend yield relative to 10-year Chinese bond yield: -0.40 (declined from -0.33 last week)[11] - Net financing purchases: -0.25 (declined from 0.85 last week)[11] - Industry average sentiment: 2.14 (slightly declined from 2.23 last week)[11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Recent liquidity crisis in the US led to a "bond market blood - sucking → risk asset blood - loss" chain. The market is in a capital re - pricing cycle, and the current decline is due to capital cost rather than fundamental deterioration [9]. - The wave of US Treasury issuance and fiscal deficit expansion will strengthen the mid - term pattern of liquidity tightening and asset re - pricing. Dollar liquidity will remain tight from November to December, and rising bond yields will push up global capital pricing and suppress high - valuation assets [9]. - The market is in a phased switch from liquidity flooding to pricing callback. Once fiscal spending resumes and the Fed stops liquidity withdrawal or shifts policy, asset prices will rise again. This is a valuation adjustment, not a structural breakdown [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review - As of November 7, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 9bp in two weeks, reaching 4.11%. The 2 - year yield rose 7bp and the 30 - year yield rose 11bp compared to two weeks ago [5]. 3.2 US Treasury Market Changes - In late October, the duration of US Treasury issuance slightly rebounded. The issuance amounts were $68.47 billion for 2 - year, $69.902 billion for 5 - year, and $43.95 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US fiscal deficit in September was $197.9 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.78 trillion [5]. 3.3 Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers dropped to 5.738 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained net short, rising to 395,400 contracts [5]. 3.4 US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy 3.4.1 Monetary Policy - On October 30, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced to stop balance - sheet reduction in December and reinvest all MBS principal repayments in short - term bonds. Powell emphasized that the decision on further rate cuts in December depends on data [6]. 3.4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of November 5, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance expanded by $37.63 billion in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool expanded by $18.06 billion, increasing short - term uncertainty in the liquidity buffer [6]. 3.4.3 Economic Situation - As of November 1, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.22 (2.13 two weeks ago), indicating short - term economic improvement after stability [6].

Macro News - The U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded significantly, with the 10-year Treasury yield returning to 4.11%, primarily due to high corporate bond issuance and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy following hawkish comments from Powell last week [1] - The dollar index has shown a notable rebound, approaching the critical level of 100, influenced by expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the weakening of non-U.S. currencies [1] - The Federal Reserve's mixed signals create uncertainty in the market, with various officials expressing differing views on the potential for a rate cut in December, indicating that while risks to employment and inflation are rising, a rate cut is not guaranteed [1] Economic Data - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 48.7, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction, falling short of the expected 49.5 and down from the previous value of 49.1 [2] - New orders have declined for the second consecutive month, and the production index remains weak, with the price payment index hitting a new low for the year [2] - The ongoing government shutdown continues to pose risks, with the latest vote failing to pass, which may enhance market uncertainty and increase safe-haven demand for precious metals [2] Institutional Views - Precious metals are currently in a volatile trend, facing pressure from the significant rebound in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a weaker performance [2] - Previous short-term corrections have lowered volatility, and recent optimistic expectations have not materialized, suggesting a higher likelihood of renewed risks in the future [2] - Despite the challenges, there are indications that precious metals may have support for recovery in the medium to long term, although fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index need to be monitored closely [2]