Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell unexpectedly released dovish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting, leading to a significant rise in the three major U.S. stock indices [2] - Powell's shift in focus from inflation to employment pressures raises questions about the Fed's stance in September [2] - The implications of potential interest rate cuts on U.S. fiscal health are being debated [2] Group 2 - The upcoming content will cover macroeconomic strategies for the 2025 market and new opportunities in the commodity market for 2024 and 2025 [4] - Insights into the behavior of sovereign funds and their impact on the market will also be discussed [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. fiscal pressure is expected to impact U.S. Treasury yields, particularly with concerns over budget resolutions and potential government shutdowns [1] - The U.S. Congress passed a budget resolution for the fiscal year 2025 in April, but it lacks legal effect and cannot directly allocate funds [1] - If the budget bill is not passed by September 30, a temporary funding bill will be required to avoid government shutdown risks [1] Group 2 - The implementation of the Trump tax cuts this year is anticipated to further increase the U.S. fiscal deficit pressure [1] - Market concerns regarding fiscal pressure and inflation risks are likely to keep U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the mid-term premium and inflation expectations, elevated [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to remain above 4.0% for some time, with future downward movement dependent on Trump’s policies, the economic pressures in the U.S., and Federal Reserve statements [1]

文 ｜ 明明 周成华 王楠茜 虽然今年4月美国国会通过了2 0 2 5财年预算决议，但该决议并不具有法律效力也不能直接拨款。预计今年预算法案需要在9月3 0 日前通过，否则国会则需通过临时拨款法案以避免政府停摆风险。特朗普减税法案今年若落地，美国财政赤字压力将进一步攀 升。市场对于财政压力的担忧以及对于通胀风险的担忧将持续导致美债利率中期限溢价以及通胀预期部分高位运行，进而1 0年 期美债利率中枢或一段时间在4 . 0%以上，后续美债利率下行空间的打开或需观察特朗普政策、美国经济承压状况和美联储表 态。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年4月1 0日美国众议院以2 1 6票对2 1 4票通过了参议院修订的2 0 2 5财年预算决议。 预算决议是国会内部指导文件，设定了政府在特定时期内的财政收支预期，不具有法律效力、无需总统签署和直接拨款。只要 参众两院通过相同的预算决议，该年度决议即被采纳。预算决议主要为后续立法确定财政方向和规模，以及为国会内部的预算 协调和审议提供基础。按照《1 9 7 4年国会预算法》，预算决议应在4月1 5日前通过，但实际较多财年未有决议通过。若无新决 议通过，前一决议的支出限额和收入下限会自动在剩 ...