Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an addition of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 110,000, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%. However, the private sector job growth was only 74,000, marking the smallest increase since October 2024 [3][5] - The rise in the U.S. dollar and bond yields has diminished market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby reducing the attractiveness of gold [4] - The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remains at 4.25%-4.5%. The strong non-farm data and potential inflationary pressures from the Trump administration's new policies increase the likelihood of the Fed maintaining a cautious stance [5][6] - The Trump administration's large tax cuts and spending bill, projected to add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, may exacerbate inflationary pressures, although the current strong dollar and rising bond yields are temporarily overshadowing this [6] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the gold market experienced a bullish trend at the beginning of the week, followed by a bearish reversal on Thursday, resulting in a doji candle that suggests indecision in the market [8] - Key support levels to watch include 3319, which aligns with the 60-day moving average, and 3311, the previous low. Resistance levels are identified at 3345 and 3350, corresponding to the 30-day and 20-day moving averages [9] - On the four-hour chart, after a drop to 3247, a strong upward movement was observed, but the price faced resistance at 3365/3366, entering an adjustment phase. Key support levels are at 3307/3306 and 3293/3292, while resistance levels are at 3345, 3354, and 3365/3366 [11]

Group 1: Trump's Policy Logic - The logic behind Trump's policy is structured, focusing on increasing government revenue through tariffs, promoting manufacturing return, and adjusting tariffs based on industry rather than country [2][3] - The "Big and Beautiful" plan aims to reduce taxes and spending while raising the debt ceiling, with projected federal revenue loss of approximately $4 trillion over the next decade [3] - Deregulation is intended to stimulate the economy by removing banking regulations related to cryptocurrency and expediting government approval processes [3] Group 2: Market and Election Pressures - Market pressure plays a significant role in Trump's policy adjustments, particularly in response to movements in the U.S. Treasury market, with a tendency to ease policies when 10-year Treasury yields rise significantly [4][5] - Election pressures are also a factor, as economic downturns and inflation from tariff wars could negatively impact Trump's voter base, necessitating a softening of tariff policies [6] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - High U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to be sustained due to the Federal Reserve's current stance and the need for policy space amid economic uncertainties [8][9] - The long-term outlook suggests that U.S. Treasury yields may exceed nominal economic growth rates, which could suppress economic growth [9][10] - A new framework for long-term Treasury pricing is proposed, incorporating a sovereign risk premium to account for market concerns about U.S. debt [20][22] Group 4: Broader Economic Considerations - The U.S. is seeking new support for the dollar through high-tech exports and controlling supply chains, which may mitigate inflation domestically [23][24] - The U.S. Treasury's debt ceiling situation is critical, with current measures to manage liquidity potentially leading to a "fiscal window" before a new debt agreement is reached [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - Harvard University is negotiating with other universities to assist international students affected by Trump administration policies [1] Group 1 - Harvard University is taking proactive steps to support international students who have been impacted by recent policy changes [1] - The discussions involve collaboration with other universities to create a supportive environment for these students [1]

Employment Data Insights - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, slightly above the forecast of 126,000 but down from the previous month's increase of 177,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.24%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points month-on-month, while the labor participation rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 62.37%[3] - The household survey indicated a reduction of 696,000 jobs in May, with full-time employment decreasing by 623,000, accounting for 89.5% of the total job loss[3] Data Quality Concerns - April's non-farm employment figure was revised down by 30,000 to 147,000, and March's figure was revised down by 65,000 to 120,000, totaling a downward revision of 90,000 over two months[2] - The first quarter of this year saw a total downward revision of 189,000 in non-farm employment, representing a 36.2% adjustment, similar to last year's 36.9%[2] - Systematic errors in initial non-farm data are suggested, as companies with poorer conditions tend to report later, affecting data accuracy[2] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. Treasury yields rose by approximately 10 basis points, with the 10-year yield returning to above 4.5%[1] - The market's expectation for interest rate cuts has decreased from over 50 basis points to 44 basis points, indicating a cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve[7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to delay any interest rate cuts until at least September, as employment data does not show significant deterioration[5]

殷拓EQT总裁Conni Jonsson：美国总统特朗普的那些政策对美国私募行业构成逆风。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 A股供需格局展望重回临界值 申万宏源策略关键验证期之后的观点更新 证券分析师： 傅静涛 A0230516110001 韦春泽 A0230524060005 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.05.16 主要观点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 一、4月验证期已过，基本面主要矛盾切换，外需回落担忧犹存，国内实际对冲力度成为主要矛盾，而5月以来，有两个重要催化：5月7日国新办发布会、5月12日中美 日内瓦经贸会谈，A股震荡区间中枢抬升，短期将试探震荡区间上沿。 ◼ 国新办发布会：金融政策全面宽松，且与稳定资本市场预期直接关联。央行价格工具、数量工具、稳定资本市场工具全面布局，金监局扩大险资长期投资试点范围 + 调 降保险公司股票投资风险因子，证监会总结平准基金定位。单个细项政策可能不会明显超出市场期待，但政策落地的全面性、集中性，一致性，以及金融政策布局与稳 定资本市场预期直接关联，都明显超出市场期待。另外，发布会召开节点本身就体现了稳定资本市场的政策目标。市场政策布局和业绩关键验证期刚过，后续外需回落 压力可能逐步显现，稳增长政策的落地执行成为影 ...

Group 1 - Orbis International Equity Fund has doubled its investment in Japanese stocks, increasing the allocation from 10% to 24%, resulting in a year-to-date return of 16% [1][2] - The fund manager, Graeme Foster, highlights that the depreciation of the yen over the past decade has led to undervaluation of Japanese companies, creating a "golden pit" of investment opportunities [1][2] - The yen has appreciated nearly 10% against the dollar this year, making it the best-performing major currency globally, which is expected to provide "dual benefits" for foreign investors in Japanese import-oriented companies [1][2] Group 2 - Foster has allocated 4% of the fund to the Japanese pharmacy sector, focusing on companies like Tsuruha Holdings and Sundrug, which are expected to benefit from increased market concentration and bargaining power [2] - The fund holds significant positions in Asahi Group and Mitsubishi Estate, with the former showing a 40% dividend payout ratio and stock buyback plan, while the latter benefits from rising rental prices [2] - Outside of Japan, the fund has also seen gains from European defense and banking sectors, although it has exited positions in Rheinmetall due to high gains, while maintaining holdings in Hanwha Aerospace and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries [2] Group 3 - Foster emphasizes a strategy focused on free cash flow yield, seeking companies that can generate 12%-14% cash flow returns, which allows for less concern over external factors like AI advancements or political policies [3] - The fund is validating the potential for traditional "value traps" to transform into "growth soil" as Japan emerges from deflation [3]

美国高校逃离私募股权，一场因流动性压力和特朗普政策引发的投资者"抢跑"大戏正在上演。 根据贝恩咨询公司的数据，截至2024年底，私募行业在29000家未售出的投资组合公司中持有约3.6万亿 美元的未实现价值。去年，投资者分配到的资金占资产净值的比例降至创纪录的11%，而长期平均水平 约为25%。 美国大学在过去十年中蜂拥进入风险投资和私募股权，现在却发现自己对难以估值的资产过度敞口。这 打乱了他们捐赠基金的结构平衡，而这些基金是他们建设图书馆、资助财政援助和支付教授薪酬的资金 来源。 Gaurav Patankar指出，如今许多大学更加依赖捐赠基金来满足运营预算，这使得捐赠基金董事会和委员 会处于"高度警戒状态"。 5月7日，据彭博社报道，据知情人士透露，普林斯顿大学捐赠基金最近几周一直在研究私募股权份额潜 在出售的可行性。 由于多年来回报缓慢和资金分配不频繁，德克萨斯理工大学规模超20亿美元的捐赠基金遇到了挑战。德 克萨斯理工大学负责私募股权投资的Christopher White表示，该校计划减少部分私募股权敞口。 华尔街见闻此前提及，哈佛大学已将其530亿美元捐赠基金中近40%的资产配置给私募股权，目前 ...

每经编辑 杜宇 据央视新闻4月29日消息，当地时间4月28日获悉，美国有线电视新闻网民调机构进行的一项最新民调显示，59%的民众认为美国总统特朗普的政策恶化了美 国经济状况，这一比例较3月份的51%有所上升。 调查还发现，美国人对本国经济状况普遍不满，对白宫新贸易政策缺乏热情。60%的民众称特朗普政策提高了所在社区生活成本，仅12%的民众认为其政策 有助于降低物价。此外，仅有34%的美国人对经济持乐观态度，29%的人感到悲观，37%的人表示担忧。 据央视新闻，当地时间4月19日，美国多地举行抗议活动，首都华盛顿、纽约、旧金山、波士顿等城市的民众走上街头，抗议现政府大规模裁员、加征关 税、驱逐移民等政策。民调结果显示，特朗普在经济问题上的支持率降至最低。 在华盛顿的白宫门口，抗议人群手持"停止非法驱逐""宪法危机已经到来"等各色标语牌表达不满。 在华盛顿一家非营利组织工作的弗兰克说，现任政府在没有进行任何审理的情况下，取消学生签证、驱逐移民，把他们赶出美国，这违反正当法律程序。 图片来源：视觉中国 图片来源：央视新闻 另据央视新闻此前消息，总台记者当地时间4月21日获悉，路透社/益普索民意调查结果显示，美国总统 ...

文 ｜ 明明 周成华 王楠茜 虽然今年4月美国国会通过了2 0 2 5财年预算决议，但该决议并不具有法律效力也不能直接拨款。预计今年预算法案需要在9月3 0 日前通过，否则国会则需通过临时拨款法案以避免政府停摆风险。特朗普减税法案今年若落地，美国财政赤字压力将进一步攀 升。市场对于财政压力的担忧以及对于通胀风险的担忧将持续导致美债利率中期限溢价以及通胀预期部分高位运行，进而1 0年 期美债利率中枢或一段时间在4 . 0%以上，后续美债利率下行空间的打开或需观察特朗普政策、美国经济承压状况和美联储表 态。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年4月1 0日美国众议院以2 1 6票对2 1 4票通过了参议院修订的2 0 2 5财年预算决议。 预算决议是国会内部指导文件，设定了政府在特定时期内的财政收支预期，不具有法律效力、无需总统签署和直接拨款。只要 参众两院通过相同的预算决议，该年度决议即被采纳。预算决议主要为后续立法确定财政方向和规模，以及为国会内部的预算 协调和审议提供基础。按照《1 9 7 4年国会预算法》，预算决议应在4月1 5日前通过，但实际较多财年未有决议通过。若无新决 议通过，前一决议的支出限额和收入下限会自动在剩 ...