Group 1 - The core argument is that Nvidia's financial practices are characterized as blatant accounting fraud, masking weak performance under the guise of financial engineering [1] - Nvidia intentionally delayed disclosing key information regarding cloud service repurchase contracts until major shareholders had sold their stakes, indicating a manipulation of information to benefit select investors [1] - The article suggests that this behavior is not isolated to Nvidia but is part of a broader conspiracy among top U.S. capital firms, which are portrayed as working together to inflate stock prices and mislead the market [1] Group 2 - The underlying logic of the current market is described as a greed-driven frenzy, where AI narratives are used to attract investment while relying on excessive liquidity from the dollar supply [2] - The article warns that the market bubble is unsustainable and will burst once the Federal Reserve tightens liquidity, leading to a collapse of inflated stock prices [2] - It is argued that the current economic situation in the U.S. lacks the possibility of a soft landing, with politicians and capitalists depicted as self-serving actors in a failing system [3]

Core Viewpoint - Mark Spitznagel, manager of Universa Investments, predicts a significant rise in the U.S. stock market, potentially reaching 8000 points on the S&P 500, which represents about a 20% increase from current levels, but warns of an impending severe market correction akin to the 1929 crash [1][4]. Market Euphoria and Warning Signals - Spitznagel compares the current market environment to the early stages of the 1929 crash, noting that significant price increases often signal market tops [4]. - Historical data supports this pattern, showing that the S&P 500 index had an average annualized return of 26% in the 12 months leading up to bear markets since 1980, with the final 12 months before the 1929 peak seeing returns more than double this average [4]. - Institutional investors' stock exposure has reached its highest level since November 2007, just before the financial crisis, and household stock allocation has surpassed levels seen during the tech bubble [4]. - Other indicators of market euphoria include investment-grade bond risk premiums dropping to their lowest since 1998 and trading volumes on U.S. stock exchanges nearing historical highs [4]. Accumulation of Risks - Spitznagel attributes the potential upcoming crash to prolonged market interventions by central banks and governments, which have inflated market valuations to near historical highs, setting the stage for a significant correction [6][8]. - He uses the analogy of extinguishing small forest fires to describe how these interventions prevent immediate losses but allow systemic risks to accumulate, leading to potentially catastrophic outcomes when a major crisis occurs [6][8]. - Spitznagel emphasizes that the greatest risk for investors is not the market itself but their own behavior, advocating for long-term holding strategies rather than market timing [8].

黄金暴涨30%对标美股崩盘！标普500真会跌到与金价1:1？分析师称，原油的低价或在每桶X美元左 右，而黄金的下一个阻力位在.....点击阅读。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...