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国内油厂开工率高位 预计豆二期货震荡偏空运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-23 06:54
Group 1 - Domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a downward trend, with soybean futures experiencing a significant drop of 4.63%, settling at 3544.00 CNY/ton [1] - As of September 19, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 7.52 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 320,000 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 30,000 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 50,000 tons compared to the past three-year average [2] - The U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rating was reported at 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%, and down from 63% the previous week and 64% the same time last year [2] Group 2 - New Century Futures predicts a short-term rebound for soybean futures, but a medium-term bearish trend, influenced by drought conditions affecting U.S. soybeans and high inventory levels in domestic oil mills [3] - The report highlights that the supply of soybeans is abundant, with domestic oil mills operating at high capacity, leading to pressure on soybean meal inventories [3] - Future supply expectations are influenced by U.S.-China trade relations, the realization of U.S. soybean yields, and adjustments in the purchasing rhythm and direction of domestic firms [3]
油脂日报:CBOT大豆偏弱,油脂承压震荡-20250806
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 05:09
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The CBOT soybean price was weak. There were some differences in the market regarding the results of the autumn negotiations between China and the United States. Coupled with the strong expectation of a bumper harvest of US soybeans and the record - high soybean production in Brazil, the overall soybean supply was unlikely to have a large gap, and the market was under pressure and oscillated [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9064.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +226 yuan and a change amplitude of +2.56%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8344.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +94.00 yuan and a change amplitude of +1.14%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9615.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +73.00 yuan and a change amplitude of +0.77% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8970.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +170.00 yuan and a change amplitude of +1.93%. The spot basis was P09 + - 94.00, with a month - on - month change of - 56.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8440.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +70.00 yuan/ton and a change amplitude of +0.84%. The spot basis was Y09 + 96.00, with a month - on - month change of - 24.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9730.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +100.00 yuan and a change amplitude of +1.04%. The spot basis was OI09 + 115.00, with a month - on - month change of +27.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Soybean Oil Volume - On August 5th, the trading volume of soybean oil was 18,500 tons, a 41.27% decrease compared to the previous trading day. On August 4th, it was 31,500 tons, a 27.59% decrease. On August 1st, it was 43,500 tons, a 29.85% increase. On July 31st, it was 33,500 tons, a 67.32% decrease. On July 30th, it was 102,500 tons, a 113.54% increase. The average trading volume of soybean oil last week was 49,300 tons [2] Soybean Oil Inventory - As of August 5th, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1.055 million tons, an increase of 43,000 tons compared to the same period last week [2] Commodity Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 568 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 558 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 446 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 440 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 477 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (September shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged; the US West Coast (September shipment) was 193 cents/bushel, unchanged; the Brazilian port (September shipment) was 305 cents/bushel, an increase of 17 cents/bushel. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1149 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1127 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton. The C&F quote of imported rapeseed oil: the Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1035 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1015 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]