职业技能培训赛道景气回升

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海外消费周报:美高梅中国2Q25业绩点评-20250804
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-04 03:14
Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for MGM China is maintained as "Buy" with a target price raised from HKD 15.5 to HKD 19 [1][6]. Group 2: Core Insights - MGM China reported a net revenue of HKD 8.7 billion for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8%, achieving the highest quarterly record in history, with a 72% increase compared to 2019 [1][6]. - The company's adjusted EBITDA reached HKD 2.5 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6, driven by an unexpected increase in market share, which reached 16.6% in Q2 [1][6]. - The strong performance in gaming revenue is attributed to high-end gaming and concert events, attracting more customers seeking new experiences and quality services [1][6]. - MGM China is focusing on high-end gaming strategies, with a positive outlook for the summer season, and the Alpha Villas in Macau began trial operations in July [1][6]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Section 1: MGM China Q2 2025 Performance - MGM China's Q2 2025 net revenue was HKD 8.7 billion, a 9% increase year-on-year and an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter, with adjusted EBITDA at HKD 2.5 billion, marking a 3% year-on-year increase [1][6]. - The company achieved a market share of 16.6% in Q2, the highest increase among gaming companies, with a strong performance driven by high-end gaming and concert events [1][6]. Section 2: Market Outlook - The outlook for MGM China remains positive, with the summer season expected to maintain strong performance, and new villa suites set to open before the Golden Week in October [1][6]. Section 3: Education Sector Insights - China Oriental Education reported a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 45-50%, corresponding to a profit total of HKD 400-420 million, exceeding expectations [2][9]. - The vocational training sector is expected to see continued growth due to an increase in the number of high school graduates and a rise in the number of students seeking vocational training [2][9]. - The company is focusing on developing new programs tailored to high school graduates, with an expected enrollment increase of approximately 81% in the new 15-month training programs [3][10]. Section 4: Operational Efficiency - The company plans to enhance operational efficiency by optimizing marketing expenditures and improving school capacity utilization, with an expected increase in capacity utilization from 72.7% to 75.3% [4][11]. - The marketing expense ratio is projected to decrease from 23.7% to 22.1%, contributing to an anticipated profit margin expansion of approximately 3.7% to 16.4% in FY 2025 [4][11].