Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Oriental Education, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to the local market index [14][21]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a dual improvement in performance and valuation, driven by its strong brand influence in various training sectors such as culinary arts, pastry, information technology, and automotive services [2][14]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to grow by 10.2%, with a gross margin increase to 57.3%, reflecting effective business expansion and cost control [2][14]. - The company operates 234 schools and centers across mainland China and Hong Kong, with a steady increase in training participants [4][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 4,116 million RMB - 2025: 4,585 million RMB (up 11%) - 2026: 5,088 million RMB (up 11%) - 2027: 5,591 million RMB (up 10%) [5][12] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - 2024: 513 million RMB - 2025: 798 million RMB (up 56%) - 2026: 1,004 million RMB (up 26%) - 2027: 1,128 million RMB (up 12%) [5][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: 0.24 RMB - 2025: 0.36 RMB - 2026: 0.45 RMB - 2027: 0.51 RMB [5][12]. Market Performance - The stock price has fluctuated between 2.43 and 9.05 HKD over the past 52 weeks, with a current market capitalization of 13,808 million HKD [8][12]. - The report suggests a target price of 9.0 RMB, equivalent to approximately 9.9 HKD, based on a 20X PE valuation for 2026 [14].

Group 1: Company Performance - China Oriental Education reported a revenue of 2.186 billion yuan for 1H25, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 1H25 was 416 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 49.5% [1] - The adjusted net profit margin reached 19%, an increase of 4.99 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The vocational skills training sector is experiencing a recovery, with new training participants reaching 83,500 in 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [2] - All five major skill training segments (cooking, automotive repair, computer, pastry, and beauty) saw year-on-year growth in new training participants, with the beauty segment leading at 34.1% [2] - The number of high school graduates is expected to rise, driven by an increase of 2.6 million graduates from 2021 to 2024, which will boost the vocational skills training market [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on developing new programs to capture the growing demand for vocational training among high school graduates, launching a 15-month training program that saw a participant increase of approximately 85.4% [3] - The company emphasizes its strengths in core vocational training areas, maintaining a focus on long-term training programs for junior high school graduates, which also saw a year-on-year increase of 4.5% in new participants [3] - The company is implementing refined management practices to enhance operational efficiency, resulting in a gross margin of 57.3%, up 4.3 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 4: Financial Outlook - The company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 to 792 million yuan, 976 million yuan for 2026, and 1.211 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 12.56 HKD, up from 11.06 HKD, while maintaining a buy rating for the company [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [2][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.186 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%. The adjusted net profit reached 416 million RMB, up 49.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19%, an increase of 4.99 percentage points compared to the previous year [5][8] - The vocational training sector is experiencing a recovery, with new training participants reaching 83,500, a 7.1% increase year-on-year. All five major training segments (cooking, automotive repair, computer, pastry, and beauty) saw growth, with the beauty segment leading at 34.1% [6][8] - The company is strategically developing new programs to capture the increasing demand for vocational training among high school graduates, launching a 15-month training program that saw a participant increase of approximately 85.4% [7][8] - The company continues to implement refined management practices to enhance operational efficiency, achieving a gross margin of 57.3%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, while marketing expenses decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 22.5% [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth from 3.979 billion RMB in 2023 to 5.649 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.87% [10][12] - The adjusted net profit is projected to increase from 281 million RMB in 2023 to 1.211 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [10][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.13 RMB in 2023 to 0.55 RMB in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [10][12]