景气回暖，估值修复潜力大 中国东方教育(0667) 中国东方教育跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 许樱之(分析师) | 0755-82900465 | xuyingzhi@gtht.com | S0880525040012 | 本报告导读： 2025 年上半年，公司的收入增长 10.2%，毛利率提升至 57.3%，体现出业务扩张与 成本控制的双重优势。凭借其在烹饪、西点、信息技术和汽车服务等赛道品牌影响 力，公司有望迎来业绩与估值的双重提升。 投资要点： 公司业务覆盖全国，培训人次稳步增长。截至 2025H1，公司以七大 知名学校品牌经营业务，在中国内地几乎所有省份及中国香港共运 营 234 所学校及中心（+1 所），并在期内收购山西冶金技师学院。 2025H1 公司长期课程平均培训人次 13.41 万人，同比增长 4.9%，占 比 87.8%；其中 1-2 年/2-3 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - China Oriental Education reported a revenue of 2.186 billion yuan for 1H25, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 1H25 was 416 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 49.5% [1] - The adjusted net profit margin reached 19%, an increase of 4.99 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The vocational skills training sector is experiencing a recovery, with new training participants reaching 83,500 in 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [2] - All five major skill training segments (cooking, automotive repair, computer, pastry, and beauty) saw year-on-year growth in new training participants, with the beauty segment leading at 34.1% [2] - The number of high school graduates is expected to rise, driven by an increase of 2.6 million graduates from 2021 to 2024, which will boost the vocational skills training market [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on developing new programs to capture the growing demand for vocational training among high school graduates, launching a 15-month training program that saw a participant increase of approximately 85.4% [3] - The company emphasizes its strengths in core vocational training areas, maintaining a focus on long-term training programs for junior high school graduates, which also saw a year-on-year increase of 4.5% in new participants [3] - The company is implementing refined management practices to enhance operational efficiency, resulting in a gross margin of 57.3%, up 4.3 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 4: Financial Outlook - The company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 to 792 million yuan, 976 million yuan for 2026, and 1.211 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 12.56 HKD, up from 11.06 HKD, while maintaining a buy rating for the company [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [2][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.186 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%. The adjusted net profit reached 416 million RMB, up 49.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19%, an increase of 4.99 percentage points compared to the previous year [5][8] - The vocational training sector is experiencing a recovery, with new training participants reaching 83,500, a 7.1% increase year-on-year. All five major training segments (cooking, automotive repair, computer, pastry, and beauty) saw growth, with the beauty segment leading at 34.1% [6][8] - The company is strategically developing new programs to capture the increasing demand for vocational training among high school graduates, launching a 15-month training program that saw a participant increase of approximately 85.4% [7][8] - The company continues to implement refined management practices to enhance operational efficiency, achieving a gross margin of 57.3%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, while marketing expenses decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 22.5% [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth from 3.979 billion RMB in 2023 to 5.649 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.87% [10][12] - The adjusted net profit is projected to increase from 281 million RMB in 2023 to 1.211 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [10][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.13 RMB in 2023 to 0.55 RMB in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [10][12]