Group 1 - The notion of a "US-Russia alliance" is misleading, as the energy dynamics in Europe have shifted from a heavy reliance on Russian gas to a significant dependence on US liquefied natural gas (LNG), with US LNG now accounting for over half of Europe's supply [3][4] - The US is set to gain financially from this energy transition, with Europe expected to spend €100 billion on US gas over three years, while the price of US LNG is notably higher than other sources [4][6] - The relationship between the US and Russia in the context of the Ukraine conflict is characterized by a strategic maneuvering rather than a true alliance, with the US aiming to shift its focus from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region [3][9] Group 2 - The claim that China is being excluded from the new world order overlooks the reality of global interdependence, as China's exports to the EU grew by 8.9% in the first 11 months, and ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner [6][9] - Despite the US's attempts to isolate China, Russia's increasing cooperation with China in various sectors, including energy and technology, indicates a deepening partnership that counters US influence [6][9] - China's role in the global supply chain is significant, with its competitive edge in electric vehicles and lithium batteries showing robust growth, making it unlikely for any party to effectively exclude China from the global economy [7][9]

Group 1 - The U.S. is facing significant setbacks in its trade war with China, as evidenced by the failure of U.S. strategies to leverage chip exports and sanctions against Russian oil to pressure China [1][5][6] - China has made substantial progress in reducing its reliance on U.S. chips, with domestic companies now avoiding the use of NVIDIA's H20 chip, indicating a shift in the technological landscape [3] - Despite U.S. efforts to impose secondary sanctions on China regarding Russian oil purchases, no European country has complied, highlighting the limitations of U.S. influence [5][6] Group 2 - China has significantly increased its soybean imports from South America, totaling 12 million tons for September and October, leaving U.S. soybean stocks unsold and indicating a shift in trade dynamics [8] - The U.S. administration's attempts to negotiate increased soybean purchases from China have been met with failure, as China has opted for alternative suppliers [8] - In a surprising move, the U.S. is considering a partnership with Russia for rare earth elements, although this strategy may be unrealistic given Russia's interests in strengthening ties with China [11]