安联环球投资公募市场首席投资总监Michael Krautzberger认为，预期美联储本月将降息25个基点，但内 部投票结果或将显示立场不一。美联储主席鲍威尔曾强调12月降息"远非已成定局"。由于政府停摆导致 部分官方数据缺失，加上美国经济表现强于预期，令官员倾向更审慎行事。展望未来，在经济不陷入衰 退的基本情境假设下，他维持预测美联储将额外进行总共50个基点的预防性降息，令联邦基金目标利率 区间在2026年中降至3.25-3.5%，这轮温和宽松虽有助支持经济增长，并缓和下行风险，但仍低于市场 对终端利率低于3%的预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve will continue to monitor economic data and maintain the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50% due to strong economic indicators and potential inflation risks from tariffs [1] Group 1 - Analysts from the German Central Cooperative Bank emphasize the importance of economic data in guiding the Federal Reserve's decisions [1] - The Federal Reserve is adopting a wait-and-see approach to better understand the impact of Trump's economic policies on inflation and the labor market [1] - There is a noted decline in price pressures, although they remain not convincingly low [1]

Core Viewpoint - ANZ Bank suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain the federal funds target rate unchanged in the upcoming meeting, indicating a patient approach from Chairman Powell amidst economic uncertainties [1] Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data shows a cooling job market, yet it remains relatively resilient, providing the Fed with the opportunity to focus on the forthcoming inflation report [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - ANZ Bank expects Chairman Powell to continue emphasizing patience, stating that monetary policy is in a good position to respond appropriately to developments [1]