聚丙烯：短期反弹，中期趋势仍偏弱 观点综述 1 本周PP观点：短期反弹，中期趋势仍偏弱 | | 本周国内聚丙烯产量80.68万吨，相较上周的80.83万吨减少0.15万吨，跌幅0.19%；相较去年同期的67.4万吨增加13.28万吨，涨幅19.7%。 | | --- | --- | | | 周内赛科、大港石化及巨正源等装置恢复开工，但上海石化、茂名石化等装置停车检修，聚丙烯损失量量数据窄幅走高，受此影响，产量 | | | 数据小幅下滑。 | | | 周产能利用率变化分析：本期聚丙烯平均产能利用率78.14%，环比下降0.14%；中石化产能利用率79.65%，环比下降1.59%。周内茂名 | | 供应 | 石化二线30万吨/年及上海石化三线20万吨/年等装置检修，使得中石化产能利用率下降。上海赛科25万吨/年及独山子石化老二线等装置 | | | 停车，使得聚丙烯平均产能利用率下降。 | | | 下周来看，中化泉州二线35万吨/年计划检修，东莞巨正源、天津渤化等存重启计划，计划内检修损失量预期下降。计划外检修来看， | | | 丙烷/丙烯等原料价格强势，挤占下游PP生产企业利润，聚丙烯边际装置运行压力增加，关注后 ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 幅下滑趋势。海外需求季节性偏弱，支撑有限。成本方面，伊朗、以色列同意全面停火，近期国际油价大 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 幅下挫。中东地缘因素影响逐渐减弱，短期PP2509预计震荡走势，关注7030附近支撑与7130附近压力。 免责声明 聚丙烯产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7084 | 10 1月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7026 | -1 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7006 | 0 9月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7084 | 10 | | | 成交量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 268911 | -298157 持仓量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 424343 | -24092 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:聚丙烯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The mismatch between supply and demand growth restricts the polypropylene market. With capacity expansion and weak consumption recovery, polypropylene prices are in a downward trend. The cost - end crude oil also faces supply - and - demand pressures, and its price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, providing limited cost support for polypropylene. The polypropylene futures main contract shows a bearish pattern, but the short - term downward space is limited, and it may show a low - level consolidation pattern. There is potential for a low - level rebound during the consumption season, but the seasonal features will be weakened by negative factors [1][12] Summary by Directory 1. Supply Pressure under Capacity Expansion Background - From January to April 2025, the cumulative maintenance loss of propylene in China was 2.318 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.15%. However, due to the continuous release of new production capacity, China's polypropylene output from January to April reached 12.611 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The total supply growth rate from January to April was 10.8%. Although the increase in maintenance losses and exports has alleviated domestic supply pressure to some extent, the supply pressure cannot be effectively relieved in the continuous capacity expansion cycle [1] - As of now, 1.95 million tons of new polypropylene plants have been put into production in 2025, and there are still multiple plants planned to be put into production in the middle of the year. The supply pressure in the second half of the year will continue, but the arrival of the consumption peak season may offset some of the supply - side pressure. Delays in plant commissioning due to poor profitability may also reduce the pressure [3] 2. Consumption Recovery below Expectations - After the Spring Festival this year, the downstream start - up of polypropylene recovered quickly but lacked stamina. In April, the traditional peak season, consumption recovery was significantly below expectations. Domestic demand was weak, and external demand was under pressure due to trade disputes. The operating rates of major downstream sectors declined, and the overall showed a high - level decline. In May, it was in the transition to the seasonal off - season, and the downstream start - up was expected to further decline. Although the Sino - US trade negotiation alleviated market concerns to some extent, the demand side still had many uncertainties, and the growth momentum of the terminal consumer market was insufficient [7] 3. Oil Price Decline Pressuring the Cost End - Since the beginning of this year, the crude oil price has dropped from about $82 in mid - January to a low of $58. The main reasons include intensified international trade rectification, accelerated production increase by OPEC +, and easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation. The decline in the cost end is an important factor leading to the drop in polypropylene prices. Although there are expectations of some improvement in oil prices in the later stage, such as the upcoming US summer demand peak and the easing of trade disputes, the overall low - level operation logic of oil prices is difficult to reverse [10]