Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyethylene (PE) futures main contract oscillated within a range this week due to the tug - of - war between weak supply - demand and rising coal costs. The L2509 contract closed at 7,290 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, down 0.37% from last week's close. - In terms of fundamentals, supply increased as multiple plants restarted, with PE production rising 3.89% to 660,200 tons and capacity utilization up 3.75% to 85.72%. Demand saw a slight improvement, with the average downstream operating rate up 0.4%. Inventory increased, but the overall inventory pressure was not significant. - Looking ahead, the next round of intensive maintenance for domestic PE is expected to start on August 15. Next week, more plants will restart, and production and capacity utilization are expected to rise. Due to the leap June, the demand for domestic greenhouse films is delayed, extending the off - season for downstream industries. The international oil price is expected to oscillate. The L2509 contract is expected to oscillate slightly in the 7,200 - 7,400 range, while the L2601 contract still faces pressure, with technical support around 7,200 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Price**: The PE futures main contract oscillated in the range of 7,251 - 7,344 yuan/ton. The L2509 contract closed at 7,290 yuan/ton, down 0.37% from last week [7]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: Multiple plants restarted, PE production rose 3.89% to 660,200 tons, and capacity utilization increased 3.75% to 85.72% [7]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate increased 0.4%, with the agricultural film operating rate up 0.4% [7]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory increased 19.09% to 515,400 tons, and social inventory rose 2.49% to 575,700 tons [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased 2.04% to 7,702 yuan/ton, and the profit increased 139 yuan/ton to - 352 yuan/ton. The cost of coal - based LLDPE increased 2.50% to 6,243 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased 206 yuan/ton to 989 yuan/ton [7]. - **Outlook**: The next round of intensive maintenance is expected to start on August 15. Next week, more plants will restart, and production and capacity utilization are expected to rise. The demand for greenhouse films is delayed, and the international oil price is expected to oscillate. The L2509 contract is expected to oscillate slightly in the 7,200 - 7,400 range, while the L2601 contract still faces pressure [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The PE futures main contract oscillated, and trading volume decreased [9]. - **Open Interest and Warehouse Receipts**: As the delivery month approached, the open interest of the 09 contract decreased, and the number of registered warehouse receipts remained stable [14]. - **Calendar Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread weakened slightly, the 1 - 5 spread oscillated slightly, the 5 - 9 spread strengthened slightly, and the L - PP spread strengthened slightly [20][27]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Prices**: Domestic LLDPE prices ranged from 7,270 - 7,480 yuan/ton, and the CFR China quote was 856 US dollars/ton [33]. - **Basis**: The futures market was at a discount, and the basis weakened [38]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Ethylene Price**: The RMB price of ethylene remained stable this week [42]. - **Ethylene Production and Imports**: In June, ethylene production decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Supply**: In July, PE production was 2.726 million tons, an increase from the previous month. This week, PE capacity utilization increased [49][54]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased, while the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased. The profit of oil - based LLDPE increased, and the profit of coal - based LLDPE decreased. The import profit of LLDPE fluctuated slightly, and the import window was open [59][64][69]. - **Inventory**: PE inventory increased this week, but the inventory pressure was not significant [74]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - **Prices**: The prices of PE downstream products remained stable [77]. - **Operating Rates and Production**: The average downstream operating rate increased 0.4% this week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products increased 5.0% year - on - year. The operating rates of agricultural film, pipes, and packaging film all increased. From January to June 2025, the export value of plastic products decreased 1.30% year - on - year [80][86][91]. 3.7 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PE was 12.30%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 12.61% [95].

塑料产业日报 2025-07-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7247 | -35 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7220 | -23 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7197 | -24 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7247 | -35 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 255068 | -46228 持仓量(日,手) | 448912 | 231 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 23 | 1 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 363249 | 8937 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 408346 | 8225 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -45097 | 712 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7314.35 | 17.83 LLDPE(7042)均价:华 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 聚乙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 添加客服 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：本周聚乙烯主力期货在7219-7340区间震荡。截至2025年7月2日收盘，L2509合约报收于7282 元/吨，较上周收盘下跌0.27%。 基本面：供应端，本周停车、重启装置变动密集，PE产量环比+3.95%至61.89万吨，产能利用率环比 +3.02%至79.46%。需求端，本周PE下游制品平均开工率环比-0.09%，持续季节性下降。库存方面， 生产企业库存环比-2.19%至43.84万吨，社会库存环比+9.09%至50.71万吨，总库存压力不大。成本利 润方面，本周油制LLDPE成本环比-4.23%至7646元/吨，油制利润环比+152元/吨至-310元/吨；煤制 LLDPE成本环比+0.22%至5869元/吨，煤制利润环比-189元/吨至1364 ...

塑料产业日报 2025-07-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7249 | -12 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7214 | -14 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7195 | -15 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7249 | -12 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 232978 | -14066 持仓量(日,手) | 457867 | -2631 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 19 | 1 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 370890 | 1781 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 411285 | 1563 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -40395 | 218 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7339.13 | -3.48 LLDPE(7042)均价 ...

塑料产业日报 2025-05-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7221 | -1 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7158 | 3 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7140 | 5 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7221 | -1 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 321016 | 6224 持仓量(日,手) | 517489 | 5582 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 18 | -2 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 377787 | 2559 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 421443 | 3632 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -43656 | -1073 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7387.83 | -26.09 LLDPE(7042)均价:华东(日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, L2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 6970 and resistance around 7160. The inventory pressure is not significant. There is a possibility of two sets of devices in Shandong New Era going into production in May. Industry - wide maintenance will start from the middle and late of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to be high in the early stage and low in the later stage. Attention should be paid to the latest progress of tariff negotiations between China and the US. The tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a strong rebound in international oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 7046 yuan/ton, with a change of 59. The 1 - month contract closes at 6979 yuan/ton (up 58), the 5 - month contract at 7263 yuan/ton (up 33), and the 9 - month contract at 7046 yuan/ton (up 59). The trading volume is 348,273 lots (up 51,423), and the open interest is 520,492 lots (down 12,547). The spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month contracts is - 284 (up 25). The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 358,474 lots (down 4,789), the short positions are 438,448 lots (down 7,249), and the net long positions are - 79,974 lots (up 2,460) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7389.55 yuan/ton (down 31.36), and in East China is 7370.49 yuan/ton (down 42.44). The basis is 402.55 (up 64.64) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 60.22 US dollars/barrel (up 0.8), the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 554.75 US dollars/ton (up 8.5). The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 871 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Northeast Asia is 791 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 84.39% (up 0.64) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film is 47.85% (down 0.96), the operating rate of polyethylene pipes is 31.83% (unchanged), and the operating rate of polyethylene agricultural film is 23.39% (down 2.7) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 22.44% (up 0.46), the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.7% (up 0.19). The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.57% (up 0.2), and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.57% (up 0.24) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On May 7, the central bank announced ten measures in three categories, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and reduction of individual housing provident fund loan interest rates. From April 25 to May 1, China's polyethylene production totaled 651,100 tons, a 1.35% increase from the previous week. From April 18 to 24, China's polyethylene capacity utilization rate was 83.75%, a 0.06 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. From April 25 to 30, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 1.32% from the previous period. As of April 29, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 414,000 tons, a 21.31% decrease from the previous period. As of May 2, the social inventory of polyethylene was 611,700 tons, a 1.98% increase from the previous period [2].