Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical [3] Core Insights - The polyurethane industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in supply and demand, indicating a cyclical recovery [4] - Wanhua Chemical is positioned as a leading player in the polyurethane market, benefiting from its scale and cost advantages [6][7] - The global MDI market is characterized by high barriers to entry, with Wanhua holding a significant market share [6][25] Summary by Relevant Sections Polyurethane Industry - The global polyurethane market is expected to grow from USD 91.49 billion in 2024 to USD 135.1 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 4.4% [5][22] - MDI demand is projected to grow at a rate approximately double that of GDP, with global consumption expected to reach 8.54 million tons in 2024 [6][32] - The TDI market is also expected to see growth, with China's consumption projected to increase at an annual rate of 4.7% from 2023 to 2028 [6][8] Wanhua Chemical - Wanhua's core polyurethane raw material production capacity is set to increase from 4.16 million tons/year in 2021 to 6.86 million tons/year by the end of 2024 [6][7] - The company has a competitive edge due to its advanced MDI technology, which has undergone seven iterations, resulting in significant energy savings and lower production costs [7][8] - Wanhua's profitability is expected to recover, with projected net profits of CNY 12.31 billion, CNY 16.53 billion, and CNY 22.30 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a net profit growth rate of -6%, 34%, and 35% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.6x, 16.1x, and 11.9x [7][8]

化学制品 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524050001 1、《Q3 利润同比正增，持续看好周 期龙头》2025-10-26 2、《费用下降&产销量增，Q2 业绩 表现超预期》2025-08-12 长期发展》2025-07-26 万华化学（600309.SH） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 Email：zhangkun06@zts.com.cn 联系人：郝文阳 Email：haowy@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 3,130.47 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 3,130.47 | | 市价(元) | 84.96 | | 市值(百万元) | 265,964.87 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 265,964.87 | 股价与行业-市场走势对比 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | ...