聚烯烃：趋势仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年11月9日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 本周PP观点：趋势仍偏弱 | | 周产量变化分析：本周国内聚丙烯产量79.65万吨，相较上周的78.92万吨增加0.73万吨，涨幅0.92%；相较去年同期的66.9万吨增加12.75万 | | --- | --- | | | 吨，涨幅19.06%。虽广西石化新装置暂未出合格品，但周内泉州国亨、中景石化及安庆百聚等检修装置恢复开工，聚丙烯损失量数据继续下 | | | 滑，受此影响，产量数据延续涨势 | | 供应 | 下周来看，安庆百聚、东华能源（张家港）等装置如期重启，广东石化二线20万吨/年装置计划检修，聚丙烯计划内检修损失量下降预期 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have declined, weakening the cost support for polyolefins. The capacity expansion is significant, with rising operating rates and high production levels, resulting in substantial supply - side pressure. Currently, the downstream operating rates are low, but as the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the downstream operating rates are expected to continue rising. Polyolefin supply and demand are both increasing, with no obvious driving factors. With positive macro - sentiment, prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - For futures trading, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for single - sided futures trading and sell straddle options for options trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies - **Inventory**: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 460,000 tons, with inventory expected to change from an upward to a downward trend due to inventory pressure on production enterprises and the intention to actively reduce inventory. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 590,000 tons, a decrease from the current period, as upstream enterprises are actively reducing inventory and there is certain rigid demand downstream [6]. - **Supply**: Market supply is expected to increase as some devices such as those of Yanchang Zhongmei, Wanhua Chemical, and Liaoyang Petrochemical are planned to restart, and only Guoneng Xinjiang has a new planned maintenance device. The next - period total polyethylene output is expected to be 675,100 tons, an increase of 14,900 tons from the current period. China's polypropylene total output is estimated to be 785,000 tons, continuing the upward trend, as some previously maintained devices have gradually resumed operation, and the loss of polypropylene production has decreased [6]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries increased by 0.63%, with relatively little change in demand. Enterprises' operations are stable, and demand may improve in the middle of the month. Short - term orders for functional composite films and e - commerce packaging are being supplemented. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season approaches, it is expected that some terminal industries will start pre - stocking in mid - to late August, and the polypropylene operating rate is expected to continue rising [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The losses of oil - based PE and PP production have narrowed. Ethylene - based PE production has a slight loss, propylene - based PP production has a slight profit, and the losses of PDH - based PP production have also narrowed. The cost - side support has weakened [6]. 3.2 PP Single - Side Strategy - **Strategy**: Short PP2509 [8]. - **Price and Trend**: It has shown a fluctuating upward trend, reaching 7,075 yuan/ton as of August 7th [8]. - **Logic**: PP has significant new capacity in 2025, and downstream demand remains weak, so its medium - to long - term trend is relatively weak [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see [8]. 3.3 L - P Arbitrage Strategy - **Strategy**: Go long on the L - P spread [11]. - **Price and Trend**: It has shown a fluctuating trend. For the 2509 contract, it was 225 yuan/ton as of August 7th [11]. - **Logic**: PP has greater supply pressure, which is conducive to the expansion of the L - P spread [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see [11]. 3.4 Supply - Side - **PE Production**: The planned production capacity of PE in 2024 was large, but the actual production capacity put into operation was small. In 2024, the production capacity base was 3.696 million tons, and the actual new production capacity was 105,000 tons, with most devices postponed to 2025. In 2025, the planned new production capacity of PE is 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [84][91]. - **PP Production**: In 2024, China's PP production capacity reached about 345,000 tons, with a production capacity base of 4.321 million tons, an 8.6% increase from 2023. In 2025, the global polyolefin production capacity expansion is mainly concentrated in China. The planned new production capacity of PP in 2025 is 1.2805 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%, but considering the poor production profits, the actual production capacity put into operation is limited [90][92]. 3.5 Demand - Side - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries increased by 0.63% this week. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season approaches, it is expected that some terminal industries will start pre - stocking in mid - to late August, and the polypropylene operating rate is expected to continue rising [6]. - **Exports**: There are data on the export volumes of PE and PP, but no in - depth analysis of trends and impacts is provided [120]. - **Plastic Products**: There are data on the production volume of plastic products and the inventory of the rubber and plastic products industry, but no in - depth analysis is provided [126]. - **Terminal Products**: There are data on the monthly year - on - year growth rates of automobile and home appliance production, home appliance export volumes, domestic automobile production, and Chinese automobile exports, but no in - depth analysis is provided [129][135].