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申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250509
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 02:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the polyolefin market showed weak performance. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable, and the prices of drawn PP from Sinopec were partially stable while those from PetroChina were stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, the consumption of polyolefins has temporarily reached its peak and started to decline. However, due to the fluctuations in the cost side, polyolefins, being undervalued, have resistance to downward price movements. The press conference held by the State Council Information Office yesterday released many positive signals, and the implementation effectiveness of the stimulus policies should be monitored in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6948, 7290, and 7016 respectively, with price changes of -31, 27, and -30 and percentage changes of -0.44%, 0.37%, and -0.43%. The trading volumes were 27193, 792, and 274110, and the open interests were 67019, 4913, and 535267, with changes of 8332, -670, and 14775. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -342, 274, and 68, compared to the previous values of -284, 217, and 67 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6904, 7082, and 6985 respectively, with price changes of -48, -33, and -44 and percentage changes of -0.69%, -0.46%, and -0.63%. The trading volumes were 17713, 701, and 266940, and the open interests were 36215, 4820, and 465901, with changes of 5505, -599, and 35997. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -178, 97, and 81, compared to the previous values of -163, 86, and 77 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2221 yuan/ton, 6530 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6920 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2243 yuan/ton, 6600 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6920 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: The current price ranges in the South China, East China, and North China markets for LL were 7150 - 7350 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7900 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively, and for PP were 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges for LL were the same as the current ones, and for PP in the East China and North China markets were 7150 - 7300 yuan/ton and 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Thursday (May 8th), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.91 per barrel, up $1.84 or 3.17% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.74 - $60.29. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.84 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.00 - $63.36 [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250508
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 06:52
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the 20250508 Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report on Polyolefins (LL&PP) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - LL and PP futures prices showed increases on the previous day, with LL's 1 - month contract rising 58 yuan to 6979 yuan, a 0.84% increase; PP's 1 - month contract rising 53 yuan to 6952 yuan, a 0.77% increase [2] - The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, with significant changes in open interest, such as a decrease of 12,547 in LL's 9 - month contract and an increase of 3,754 in PP's 1 - month contract [2] - The spreads between different contracts also changed, for example, the 1 - month to 5 - month spread of LL increased from - 309 to - 284 [2] Group 3: Raw Materials and Spot Market - The prices of raw materials such as methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane had some fluctuations, while the prices of some (semi) - finished products like PP recycled materials and North China powder remained stable [2] - In the spot market, the price ranges of LL and PP in different regions had minor changes, with some price adjustments by Sinopec and PetroChina [2] Group 4: News and Market Commentary - On Wednesday, May 7, 2025, the settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures decreased, with WTI down 1.02 dollars to 58.07 dollars per barrel, a 1.73% decrease; Brent down 1.03 dollars to 61.12 dollars per barrel, a 1.66% decrease [2] - On Wednesday, the polyolefin futures market closed positive but fell at night. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined, but due to cost fluctuations, there is resistance to downward movement at low valuations. The press conference of the State Council Information Office released many positive signals, and the implementation effect of stimulus policies should be followed up [2]