成本端波动

Search documents
供应端又生变数,能源化工:MEG
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 13:58
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expected price range for ethylene glycol (MEG) is 4,250 - 4,450 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. - In the short - term, MEG prices are affected by supply - demand dynamics and external factors. The supply - demand structure is weakening, but the Red Sea shipping risk impacts imports and supports prices [6]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1盘面及现货情况 (Disk and Spot Market Conditions) - **Disk Trends**: The price of MEG futures oscillated upwards. The trading volume for the week was 754,900 lots, and the open interest was 281,400 lots, a decrease of 82,000 lots compared to the previous period. From July 8th to July 15th, the closing price rose by 55 yuan/ton (1.29%), and the settlement price increased by 65 yuan/ton (1.52%) [8][10][12]. - **Spot Market**: The high - end domestic spot price was 4,408 yuan/ton on July 11th, and the low - end was 4,332 yuan/ton on July 8th. The average basis this week was 75.0 yuan/ton, down from 81.6 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign prices of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 90 - 115 US dollars/ton [14]. 3.2 MEG装置、库存及生产利润情况 (MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit) - **Device Operation**: The overall MEG operating rate changed little, with an operating rate of 61.41% from July 9th - 15th, down from 62.33% in the previous period. The oil - based operating rate was 63.05%, coal - based was 58.87%, and methanol - based was 62.40%. This week, some devices restarted, and some adjusted their loads. For example, Far Eastern Union planned to switch from MEG to ethylene oxide, reducing MEG production [18][21][23]. - **Production Profit**: Coal - based production profit remained at a high level this year. The MTO production profit was - 1,716.23 yuan/ton (previous: - 1,828.84 yuan/ton), coal - based was 639.82 yuan/ton (previous: 617.17 yuan/ton), and ethylene - based was - 121.65 US dollars/ton (previous: - 135.35 US dollars/ton) [31][33]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10th, the MEG port inventory was 494,800 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month change of - 10.30%. Polyester production cuts affected port pick - up volumes [37][38]. 3.3 基本面分析 (Fundamental Analysis) - **Cost**: Crude oil prices continued to fluctuate, with strong bottom support but weakening demand and ongoing trade issues. Cost decline was negative for downstream product prices [6]. - **Demand**: The polyester factory's average weekly load was 87.04%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms' average weekly load was 60.17%. The prices of polyester products generally declined. The market for polyester downstream products was weak, with new orders scarce, and the weaving comprehensive operating rate continued to decline. From July 8th - 14th, the average weekly polyester sales were estimated at 50%. Polyester factory inventories increased, with POY, FDY, and DTY average inventory days at 24.20 days, 24.70 days, and 29.40 days respectively as of July 10th [48][53][58].
大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250704
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 03:26
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年7月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA: 1、基本面:昨日PTA期货震荡收跌,现货市场商谈氛围较昨日回落,贸易商商谈为主,零星聚酯工厂递盘,现货基差跌幅扩大。 下周货在09+120~145有成交,个别略低在09+100附近,价格商谈区间在4860~4920附近。7月中下在09+110~140有成交。7月下在 09+105~125有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+127。中性 2、基差:现货4872,09合约基差126,盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存:PTA工厂库存4.09天,环比减少0.06天 偏多 4、盘面:20日均线向上,收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏多 5、主力持仓:净 ...
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250509
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 02:29
| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 (从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 | | | | | | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6948 | 7290 | 7016 | 6904 | 7082 | 6985 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 6979 | 7263 | 7046 | 6952 | 7115 | 7029 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -31 | 27 | -30 | -48 | -33 | -44 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.44% | 0.37% | -0.43% | -0.69% | -0.46% | -0.63% | | 场 | 成交量 | 27193 | 792 | 274110 | 17713 | 701 | 266940 | | | 持仓量 | 6 ...
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250508
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 06:52
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the 20250508 Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report on Polyolefins (LL&PP) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - LL and PP futures prices showed increases on the previous day, with LL's 1 - month contract rising 58 yuan to 6979 yuan, a 0.84% increase; PP's 1 - month contract rising 53 yuan to 6952 yuan, a 0.77% increase [2] - The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, with significant changes in open interest, such as a decrease of 12,547 in LL's 9 - month contract and an increase of 3,754 in PP's 1 - month contract [2] - The spreads between different contracts also changed, for example, the 1 - month to 5 - month spread of LL increased from - 309 to - 284 [2] Group 3: Raw Materials and Spot Market - The prices of raw materials such as methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane had some fluctuations, while the prices of some (semi) - finished products like PP recycled materials and North China powder remained stable [2] - In the spot market, the price ranges of LL and PP in different regions had minor changes, with some price adjustments by Sinopec and PetroChina [2] Group 4: News and Market Commentary - On Wednesday, May 7, 2025, the settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures decreased, with WTI down 1.02 dollars to 58.07 dollars per barrel, a 1.73% decrease; Brent down 1.03 dollars to 61.12 dollars per barrel, a 1.66% decrease [2] - On Wednesday, the polyolefin futures market closed positive but fell at night. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined, but due to cost fluctuations, there is resistance to downward movement at low valuations. The press conference of the State Council Information Office released many positive signals, and the implementation effect of stimulus policies should be followed up [2]