Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The polyolefin market continued to rebound overnight. In the medium - term, the market focuses on actual demand fulfillment and pre - holiday terminal stocking. Attention should also be paid to potential policy changes in the overall supply side in the fourth quarter in China. Due to the cost - driven nature, polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [2][3]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7159, 7197, and 7225 respectively, with price drops of - 10, - 12, and - 6, and declines of - 0.14%, - 0.17%, and - 0.08% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 195523, 9491, and 39, and open interests were 554591, 46752, and 172, with changes of - 7269, 245, and 3 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 38, - 28, and 66 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6893, 6936, and 6908 respectively, with price drops of - 5, - 5, and - 6, and declines of - 0.07%, - 0.07%, and - 0.09% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 229349, 14353, and 521, and open interests were 609770, 78694, and 2230, with changes of - 18267, 1335, and 351 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, 28, and 15 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2358 yuan/ton, 6475 yuan/ton, 586 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6730 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of methanol futures and PP recycled materials remained unchanged, while Shandong propylene decreased by 10 yuan/ton, South China propane decreased by 3 dollars/ton, North China powder decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and plastic film remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Consumption Information - On Friday (September 26), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.72 per barrel, up $0.74 or 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.66 - $66.42. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.13 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.11 - $70.76 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is under pressure due to the increase in supply from OPEC+ and concerns about supply - overcapacity, with the IEA suggesting a possible surplus in 2026. The price of crude oil is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The fuel oil market is also in a state of oscillation. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by factors such as weak demand before the refinery maintenance season and after the end of summer power generation demand. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply in Singapore may increase, and the market should focus on the cost - side fluctuations of crude oil [3]. - The asphalt price is expected to rise further as the supply pressure is limited and the seasonal demand in September and October is expected to increase. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the cost - side fluctuations of oil prices [3]. - The polyester market is expected to be weak with oscillations. Although the fundamentals of PX are improving, TA and ethylene glycol still face challenges such as weak downstream demand and uncertain supply recovery [5]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The demand is stable, the inventory is decreasing, but the weather in the production areas during the peak - production season needs to be closely monitored [7]. - The methanol price is expected to reach a temporary bottom. Although the supply will gradually increase, the demand from MTO devices in the East China region is expected to increase, and the port inventory will peak in the middle of the month [7]. - The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the demand is picking up with the arrival of the peak season, the cost pressure restricts the price upward movement [7]. - The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply remains high, the domestic demand recovers slowly, and the export is affected by anti - dumping policies, with large inventory pressure [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the oil price dropped. The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.7 million barrels per day and predicted an increase of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC+ is increasing supply, which has led to concerns about overcapacity and pressured the oil price. The demand growth is slower than the supply growth, and the OPEC monthly report shows an increase in production in August [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose 0.47%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract fell 0.53%. The supply in Singapore may increase, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is affected by weak demand [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose 0.76%. The domestic refinery asphalt inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the device operating rate decreased. The supply pressure is limited, and the price may rise with the arrival of the demand peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA and EG prices fell, and PX prices rose slightly. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. Some production devices have maintenance or restart plans, and the market is expected to be weak with oscillations [5]. - **Rubber**: The prices of various rubber varieties dropped. The operating rate of tire enterprises in Shandong increased, the demand is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a temporary low due to domestic device maintenance, but it will gradually increase. The Iranian device has high load and stable shipping volume, but there is an expected maintenance. The MTO device in the East China region may start up, and the port inventory will peak in the middle of the month [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of various polyolefin products show different trends. The supply will remain high, the demand is picking up with the peak season, but the cost pressure makes the market expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in different regions are adjusted slightly. The domestic real - estate construction is recovering, but the demand for pipes and profiles has limited growth. The supply is high, the export is affected by policies, and the inventory pressure is large, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on September 12, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc., and also shows the changes in these data compared with the previous period and their positions in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 and suggested a possible surplus in 2026 due to the increase in supply from OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries. The OPEC monthly report shows an increase in OPEC+ crude oil production in August [14][15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., through charts [17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., through charts [35]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., through charts [48]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc., through charts [64]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc., through charts [75]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [84].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expected price range for ethylene glycol (MEG) is 4,250 - 4,450 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. - In the short - term, MEG prices are affected by supply - demand dynamics and external factors. The supply - demand structure is weakening, but the Red Sea shipping risk impacts imports and supports prices [6]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1盘面及现货情况 (Disk and Spot Market Conditions) - **Disk Trends**: The price of MEG futures oscillated upwards. The trading volume for the week was 754,900 lots, and the open interest was 281,400 lots, a decrease of 82,000 lots compared to the previous period. From July 8th to July 15th, the closing price rose by 55 yuan/ton (1.29%), and the settlement price increased by 65 yuan/ton (1.52%) [8][10][12]. - **Spot Market**: The high - end domestic spot price was 4,408 yuan/ton on July 11th, and the low - end was 4,332 yuan/ton on July 8th. The average basis this week was 75.0 yuan/ton, down from 81.6 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign prices of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 90 - 115 US dollars/ton [14]. 3.2 MEG装置、库存及生产利润情况 (MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit) - **Device Operation**: The overall MEG operating rate changed little, with an operating rate of 61.41% from July 9th - 15th, down from 62.33% in the previous period. The oil - based operating rate was 63.05%, coal - based was 58.87%, and methanol - based was 62.40%. This week, some devices restarted, and some adjusted their loads. For example, Far Eastern Union planned to switch from MEG to ethylene oxide, reducing MEG production [18][21][23]. - **Production Profit**: Coal - based production profit remained at a high level this year. The MTO production profit was - 1,716.23 yuan/ton (previous: - 1,828.84 yuan/ton), coal - based was 639.82 yuan/ton (previous: 617.17 yuan/ton), and ethylene - based was - 121.65 US dollars/ton (previous: - 135.35 US dollars/ton) [31][33]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10th, the MEG port inventory was 494,800 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month change of - 10.30%. Polyester production cuts affected port pick - up volumes [37][38]. 3.3 基本面分析 (Fundamental Analysis) - **Cost**: Crude oil prices continued to fluctuate, with strong bottom support but weakening demand and ongoing trade issues. Cost decline was negative for downstream product prices [6]. - **Demand**: The polyester factory's average weekly load was 87.04%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms' average weekly load was 60.17%. The prices of polyester products generally declined. The market for polyester downstream products was weak, with new orders scarce, and the weaving comprehensive operating rate continued to decline. From July 8th - 14th, the average weekly polyester sales were estimated at 50%. Polyester factory inventories increased, with POY, FDY, and DTY average inventory days at 24.20 days, 24.70 days, and 29.40 days respectively as of July 10th [48][53][58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PTA: After the sharp decline in oil prices, it returned to a volatile state. The PTA futures market fluctuated following the cost side. Although the fundamentals of PTA itself weakened month - on - month, there was no inventory accumulation. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will continue to fluctuate weakly following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of polyester load [6]. - MEG: At the beginning of July, the arrival of foreign ships was concentrated, and the subsequent visible inventory will gradually increase. Supply at home and abroad is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation in the third quarter, with an overall increase of about 200,000 tons. The spot liquidity in the market will continue to be released. Recently, the sales of polyester products have been weak, and the inventory pressure of polyester products has continued to increase. Bottle chip factories will gradually implement maintenance, and the polyester load will decrease. In the short term, the market sentiment will be boosted by the short - term shutdown of Saudi Arabian plants, and ethylene glycol may show a small - scale rebound, but the overall sustainability is not strong, and the fundamentals cannot form effective support [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - PTA: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated and closed down. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market declined compared with the previous day. The negotiation was mainly among traders, with sporadic inquiries from polyester factories. The decline of the spot basis widened. The inventory of PTA factories was 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, but the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position increased [6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely. The buying sentiment in the market was good. The price of ethylene glycol was mainly adjusted within a certain range during the day, and the buying sentiment improved significantly in the afternoon. Some contract merchants actively replenished their stocks, and the spot basis strengthened to a premium of about 80 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The trading in the market was active. The inventory in East China was 504,700 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The main contract was net short, and the short position decreased [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory changes [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory changes [12]. 5. Price - It includes multiple price - related charts such as bottle chip spot price, bottle chip production profit, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, and spot spread, which reflect the price trends of different products over the years [14][27][30]. 6. Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of various products such as PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory, which reflect the inventory trends of different products over the years [40]. 7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工 - It includes the opening rate data of polyester upstream products (such as PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol) and downstream products (such as polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms), which reflect the production activity trends of different products over the years [51][55]. 8. Profit - It includes the profit data of various products such as PTA processing fee, MEG production profit (from different production methods), polyester fiber short - fiber production profit, and polyester fiber long - filament production profit, which reflect the profit trends of different products over the years [59][62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the polyolefin market showed weak performance. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable, and the prices of drawn PP from Sinopec were partially stable while those from PetroChina were stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, the consumption of polyolefins has temporarily reached its peak and started to decline. However, due to the fluctuations in the cost side, polyolefins, being undervalued, have resistance to downward price movements. The press conference held by the State Council Information Office yesterday released many positive signals, and the implementation effectiveness of the stimulus policies should be monitored in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6948, 7290, and 7016 respectively, with price changes of -31, 27, and -30 and percentage changes of -0.44%, 0.37%, and -0.43%. The trading volumes were 27193, 792, and 274110, and the open interests were 67019, 4913, and 535267, with changes of 8332, -670, and 14775. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -342, 274, and 68, compared to the previous values of -284, 217, and 67 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6904, 7082, and 6985 respectively, with price changes of -48, -33, and -44 and percentage changes of -0.69%, -0.46%, and -0.63%. The trading volumes were 17713, 701, and 266940, and the open interests were 36215, 4820, and 465901, with changes of 5505, -599, and 35997. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -178, 97, and 81, compared to the previous values of -163, 86, and 77 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2221 yuan/ton, 6530 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6920 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2243 yuan/ton, 6600 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6920 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: The current price ranges in the South China, East China, and North China markets for LL were 7150 - 7350 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7900 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively, and for PP were 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges for LL were the same as the current ones, and for PP in the East China and North China markets were 7150 - 7300 yuan/ton and 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Thursday (May 8th), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.91 per barrel, up $1.84 or 3.17% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.74 - $60.29. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.84 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.00 - $63.36 [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the 20250508 Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report on Polyolefins (LL&PP) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - LL and PP futures prices showed increases on the previous day, with LL's 1 - month contract rising 58 yuan to 6979 yuan, a 0.84% increase; PP's 1 - month contract rising 53 yuan to 6952 yuan, a 0.77% increase [2] - The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, with significant changes in open interest, such as a decrease of 12,547 in LL's 9 - month contract and an increase of 3,754 in PP's 1 - month contract [2] - The spreads between different contracts also changed, for example, the 1 - month to 5 - month spread of LL increased from - 309 to - 284 [2] Group 3: Raw Materials and Spot Market - The prices of raw materials such as methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane had some fluctuations, while the prices of some (semi) - finished products like PP recycled materials and North China powder remained stable [2] - In the spot market, the price ranges of LL and PP in different regions had minor changes, with some price adjustments by Sinopec and PetroChina [2] Group 4: News and Market Commentary - On Wednesday, May 7, 2025, the settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures decreased, with WTI down 1.02 dollars to 58.07 dollars per barrel, a 1.73% decrease; Brent down 1.03 dollars to 61.12 dollars per barrel, a 1.66% decrease [2] - On Wednesday, the polyolefin futures market closed positive but fell at night. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined, but due to cost fluctuations, there is resistance to downward movement at low valuations. The press conference of the State Council Information Office released many positive signals, and the implementation effect of stimulus policies should be followed up [2]