Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of PE followed the cost side to stop falling and rebound due to a slight increase in the international oil price center, but the short - term cost side may still be limited. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand follow - up is limited. The price has fallen to a phased low, and the downward space may be limited [2]. - The cost - side support of PP has slightly recovered due to the rebound of oil prices and the stop - falling rebound of external propane. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, suppressing the price. The supply is expected to increase, the demand follow - up is insufficient, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. - The strategy suggests to wait and see for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05, and shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract was 6936 yuan/ton (+53), and that of the PP main contract was 6619 yuan/ton (+36). LL and PP spot prices and basis also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), and the PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit was 491.8 yuan/ton (-23.8), the PP oil - based production profit was - 138.2 yuan/ton (-23.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit was 168.0 yuan/ton (+45.7) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit was - 147.4 yuan/ton (-0.2), the PP import profit was - 451.7 yuan/ton (+108.4), and the PP export profit was 32.2 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), the PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), the PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost - side support is limited, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand follow - up is limited. The price has fallen to a low level, and the downward space may be limited [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support has slightly recovered, but the supply - demand pattern is loose, the demand follow - up is insufficient, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see; short - term weak and volatile [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is under pressure due to the continued loose supply - demand situation. PE and PP prices have weakened recently, affected by factors such as cost - end weakness, supply increases, and insufficient downstream demand [1][2][3]. - For PE, the continuous decline in its price is due to loose supply - demand fundamentals, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakened cost support from falling crude oil prices. Although the demand for agricultural films has improved seasonally, overall demand remains limited [2]. - For PP, the weakening of the price is dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices, and the loose supply - demand pattern also fails to support it. The supply continues to increase, while the downstream demand recovery is slow, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,874 yuan/ton (-55), and that of the PP main contract is 6,551 yuan/ton (-67). The LL North China spot price is 6,850 yuan/ton (-50), and the LL East China spot price is 6,950 yuan/ton (+0). The PP East China spot price is 6,570 yuan/ton (-50). The LL North China basis is -24 yuan/ton (+5), the LL East China basis is 76 yuan/ton (+55), and the PP East China basis is 19 yuan/ton (+17) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 81.8% (-2.2%), and the PP operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 492.1 yuan/ton (-17.4), the PP oil - based production profit is -127.9 yuan/ton (-17.4), and the PDH - based PP production profit is 131.8 yuan/ton (+66.9) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is -150.5 yuan/ton (+14.5), the PP import profit is -523.3 yuan/ton (+14.6), and the PP export profit is 25.2 US dollars/ton (-1.8) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 42.9% (+7.3%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.2% (-0.7%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The recent decline in PE is due to loose supply - demand, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakened cost support from falling crude oil prices. The supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand is limited except for the agricultural film sector, and the cost support is weakening [2]. - **PP**: The recent weakening of PP is dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices, and the loose supply - demand pattern. The supply continues to increase, the downstream demand recovery is slow, the inventory removal pressure is large, and the cost support is weakening [3]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - **Inter - period**: Conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core View - The military conflict between Israel and Iran continues, the macro - atmosphere persists, and polyolefins are running strongly, but the impact of the sentiment side is narrowing. International oil prices and propane prices are running strongly, and the cost support for polyolefins is strengthening. The previously shut - down PE plants have resumed operation, and some plants are scheduled for maintenance, with overall high - level operation. PP maintenance plants have returned, resulting in greater supply - side pressure. The overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction in the de - stocking range. The overall operating rates of downstream polyolefin industries have not changed much, and terminal enterprises have a small number of new orders, with cautious procurement [2] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7462 yuan/ton (+44), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7274 yuan/ton (+60). The spot price of LL in North China is 7450 yuan/ton (+80), the spot price of LL in East China is 7470 yuan/ton (+50), and the spot price of PP in East China is 7280 yuan/ton (+30). The basis of LL in North China is - 12 yuan/ton (+36), the basis of LL in East China is 8 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis of PP in East China is 6 yuan/ton (-30) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (-0.5%), PP operating rate is 78.6% (+1.6%). PE oil - based production profit is - 271.7 yuan/ton (+47.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 681.7 yuan/ton (+47.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 110.1 yuan/ton (-76.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - The document does not provide specific data for this part 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 4.3 yuan/ton (+22.4), PP import profit is - 347.3 yuan/ton (-31.0), and PP export profit is 0.4 US dollars/ton (-1.8) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.1% (-0.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.2% (+0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.6% (-0.8%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The document does not provide specific data for this part, only mentions that the overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction in the de - stocking range [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there is no recommendation for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a strong trend in crude oil prices, driving up polyolefins from the cost side. Propane prices are also strong, and the production profit of PDH - made PP remains in the red. The previously shut - down PE plants have resumed operation, and some plants are under planned maintenance, with overall high - level operation. The shut - down PP plants have returned, putting great pressure on the supply side. The overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction. In the seasonal consumption off - season, downstream demand remains weak, mainly with terminal rigid - demand procurement. The agricultural film operation has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a low level, and demand cannot drive the market [2] Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7418 yuan/ton (+101), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7214 yuan/ton (+89). The LL North China spot price is 7370 yuan/ton (+60), the LL East China spot price is 7420 yuan/ton (+70), and the PP East China spot price is 7250 yuan/ton (+60). The LL North China basis is - 48 yuan/ton (-41), the LL East China basis is 2 yuan/ton (-31), and the PP East China basis is 36 yuan/ton (-29) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 79.2% (+1.8%), and the PP operating rate is 78.6% (+1.6%). The PE oil - based production profit is - 318.7 yuan/ton (-251.0), the PP oil - based production profit is - 718.7 yuan/ton (-251.0), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 33.7 yuan/ton (-40.2) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given content IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 26.6 yuan/ton (-3.6), the PP import profit is - 316.3 yuan/ton (+6.4), and the PP export profit is 2.2 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (-0.5%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.4% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.4% (-0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+0.0%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral strategy of polyolefins and no rating for the inter - period strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins [2] - PE's previous maintenance devices have resumed operation, and some devices are under planned maintenance, with overall high - level operation. PP's maintenance devices have returned, resulting in greater supply - side pressure, and the upstream inventory level has a small de - stocking amplitude [2] - It is the seasonal consumption off - season, and downstream demand remains weak, mainly for terminal rigid - demand procurement. The agricultural film operation rate has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a low level, and demand is difficult to drive [2] - The production profit of PDH - made PP remains in the loss state. New maintenance of PDH devices in Shaoxing Sanyuan and Haitian Petrochemical, and the extended maintenance of Juzhengyuan have strengthened the cost support for PP [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - It includes the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts, and the basis between LL/PP in East China and their main contracts [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operation Rate - It covers the production profit of LL (crude - oil - made), PE operation rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude - oil - made and PDH - made), PP operation rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [18][21][30] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - It involves the price differences between HD injection molding/HD hollow/HD film/LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding in East China and PP drawing [29][37][38] 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - It includes the import and export profits of LL and PP, and the price differences between different regions' FOB/CFR prices and China's CFR price [42][54][62] 5. Downstream Operation and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - It contains the operation rates of PE's downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film, and PP's downstream plastic weaving, BOPP film, and injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP's downstream plastic weaving and BOPP film [63][64][72] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - It includes the inventories of PE and PP in oil - making enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [74][78][82]