聚酯产业链经济性分化
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聚酯数据日报-20251215
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 03:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA market declined slightly, and it was still in a state of destocking, with a slight increase in the spot basis. The gasoline cracking profit of PTA declined, and the PX - naphtha spread widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure, but the PX - benzene spread only slightly increased to $210, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit. The polyester new device put into production kept the polyester load at a high level, and the PTA consumption was close to the historical high in May. The cancellation of the Indian BIS certification was expected to drive an increase in exports [2]. - The ethylene glycol futures maintained low - level volatile trading, and the spot price in Zhangjiagang adjusted slightly, with the basis negotiation weakening. The ethylene glycol price was difficult to get effective support due to the continuous decline of coal prices, and the market supply pressure continued to increase with the new devices being put into production. The increase in polyester export inquiries was expected to boost the export demand of textile and clothing, supporting the downstream weaving sector to maintain a high load [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 439.7 yuan/barrel on December 11, 2025, to 437.6 yuan/barrel on December 12, 2025, a decrease of 2.10 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1468.7 yuan/ton to 1433.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.74 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4596 to 1.4509, a decrease of 0.0087 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 836 to 831, a decrease of 5; PX - naphtha spread increased from 277 to 282, an increase of 6 [2]. - PTA主力期价 decreased from 4664 yuan/ton to 4614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4640 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA现货加工费 decreased from 178.7 yuan/ton to 173.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.3 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 202.7 yuan/ton to 182.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.3 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA主力基差 increased from (21) to (20), an increase of 1; PTA仓单数量 decreased from 141,907 to 140,623, a decrease of 1,284 [2]. - MEG主力期价 increased from 3599 yuan/ton to 3627 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (165.94) to (165.13), an increase of 0.8 [2]. - MEG内盘 decreased from 3631 to 3603, a decrease of 28; MEG主力基差 increased from - 20 to - 16, an increase of 4 [2]. - POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6340; POY现金流 increased from (94) to (59), an increase of 35 [2]. - FDY150D/96F decreased from 6580 to 6575, a decrease of 5; FDY现金流 increased from (354) to (324), an increase of 30 [2]. - DTY150D/48F decreased from 7720 to 7690, a decrease of 30; DTY现金流 increased from 86 to 91, an increase of 5 [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6355 to 6305, a decrease of 50; 涤短现金流 decreased from 271 to 256, a decrease of 15 [2]. - 半光切片 decreased from 5510 to 5500, a decrease of 10; 切片现金流 increased from (24) to 1, an increase of 25 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX开工率 remained unchanged at 86.48%; PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 74.77%; MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 59.98%; 聚酯负荷 remained unchanged at 88.41% [2]. 3.3 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China was restarting and was expected to produce products in the near future, and it was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [3].
聚酯数据日报-20251211
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 05:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA market: Crude oil failed to recover Tuesday's decline, downstream polyester filament promotions were ineffective, PTA daily average price fell, PTA was still in de - stocking, and PTA spot basis slightly rose. The PX - naphtha spread widened, but PX - benzene spread only slightly increased, and PTA profit was under pressure. However, integrated enterprises had improved economic benefits. Polyester new device production kept the polyester load high, and PTA consumption was close to the historical high in May. Although domestic demand was seasonally weak, low inventory in polyester factories and the cancellation of India's BIS certification might boost exports [2] - The MEG market: The East China MEG port inventory remained at 750,000 tons. With coal prices falling, MEG prices lacked support. New device production added to supply pressure, especially from coal - based MEG devices. Recently, increased polyester export inquiries were expected to boost textile and clothing export demand, supporting downstream weaving loads [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **Crude oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 446.1 yuan/barrel on 2025/12/9 to 443.7 yuan/barrel on 2025/12/10, a decrease of 2.40 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 1402.1 yuan/ton to 1391.6 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.4325 to 1.4316. PTA主力期价 fell from 4644 yuan/ton to 4616 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4630 yuan/ton to 4605 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee dropped from 184.6 yuan/ton to 160.9 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 198.6 yuan/ton to 171.9 yuan/ton. PTA仓单数量 increased from 125,559 to 133,605 [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 dropped from 3691 yuan/ton to 3682 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from - 170.03 yuan/ton to - 170.22 yuan/ton. MEG内盘 rose from 3654 yuan/ton to 3674 yuan/ton [2] - **PX**: CFR中国PX remained at 832, and PX - naphtha spread increased from 261 to 269 [2] - **Polyester Products** - **Polyester filament**: POY150D/48F dropped from 6415 yuan/ton to 6345 yuan/ton; FDY150D/96F decreased from 6655 yuan/ton to 6620 yuan/ton; DTY150D/48F fell from 7755 yuan/ton to 7720 yuan/ton. POY现金流 decreased from - 18 to - 73; FDY现金流 decreased from - 278 to - 298; DTY现金流 decreased from 122 to 102. Long - filament sales increased from 38% to 60% [2] - **Polyester staple fiber**: 1.4D直纺涤短 dropped from 6350 yuan/ton to 6310 yuan/ton; 涤短现金流 decreased from 267 to 242. Short - fiber sales increased from 64% to 65% [2] - **Polyester chips**: 半光切片 dropped from 5525 yuan/ton to 5510 yuan/ton. 切片现金流 remained at - 8. 切片产销 increased from 61% to 62% [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX开工率 remained at 86.48% - PTA开工率 remained at 74.77% - MEG开工率 decreased slightly from 59.99% to 59.98% - Polyester负荷 remained at 88.41% [2] 3.3 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon. It was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [2]
聚酯数据日报-20251210
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 03:20
ITG 国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/12/10 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/8 | 2025/12/9 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 457.6 | 446. 1 | -11.50 | 成交情况: PTA: 原油行情偏弱,对PTA成本支撑减弱,PTA行情小 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1368. 6 | 1402. 1 | 33. 57 | 跌。PTA仍然去库存,现货基差上涨。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4115 | 1. 4325 | 0. 0210 | | | | CFR中国PX | 841 | 832 | -9 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 278 | 261 | -17 | | | | PT ...