Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a polyester data weekly report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 31, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: PX Analysis Core View - Unilateral trend is strong, but do not chase high, buy on dips; 11 - 01 calendar spread is in a positive carry, 1 - 5 is in an inverse carry; for cross - variety, long PX short EB, long naphtha short PX, long PTA short PX in the 11 contract [3] Supply - Asian PX operating rate is 75.6% (-0.7%), domestic PX operating rate is 83.3% (-1.3%). In September, Fujia Dahua plans to conduct maintenance, while Fuhua Group plans to restart, leading to a marginal increase in supply [3][47] Demand - Domestic PTA plants have unexpected maintenance due to environmental issues, and the PTA operating rate has decreased. There are also potential maintenance plans for Xin Fengming's PTA plants at the end of August [3] Valuation - PXN drops to $254/ton (-$16), PX - MX spread is $135 (-$6)/ton [3] Market Indicators - Zhengshang PX futures forward curve declines; PX CFR China price, PX RMB price, and PX futures prices show certain fluctuations, with the 09 contract's foreign - domestic spread and 9 - 1 month spread changing [15][16] Related Factors - China's gasoline export plan decreases, overseas oil product cracking spreads strengthen; Asian octane value rebounds significantly; US gasoline inventory decreases seasonally, and US octane value strengthens month - on - month; MX isomerization unit profit reaches a new high [25][26][33][36] Group 3: PTA Analysis Core View - Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the trend is strong. Buy on dips [4] Supply - After the unexpected shutdown of Hengli Huizhou's device, PTA turns into a de - stocking pattern. Some plants have maintenance or production suspension, and new devices are put into production. The PTA load is 70.4% (-1.2%) [4] Demand - Polyester device load maintains at 90.3% (+0.3%). In September, the polyester operating rate is expected to be around 91% on average. However, the downstream grey fabric has difficulty in raising prices, and the market has doubts about the peak season, resulting in the polyester operating rate recovering slower than expected [4] Valuation - PTA spot processing fee is 235/ton (+28), the 01 contract processing fee is 342 yuan/ton (-2), and the 09 contract processing fee is 230 (-22), rebounding after a decline [4] Market Indicators - Unilateral price rises first and then falls back; the basis weakens; the 1 - 5 month spread is in an inverse carry; the number of PTA warehouse receipts shows certain changes [77][79][81] Related Factors - Container freight rates decline, which is beneficial for exports; PTA exports increase from July to August; PTA inventory declines again [89][91][106] Foreign Investment Position - This week, foreign institutional seats' short positions increase to 26,000 lots; Morgan Qiankun's PTA position turns short again [112][113] Group 4: MEG Analysis Core View - Unilateral is in a sideways market, do not chase high. Above 4550, the valuation is high. Long PTA short MEG [5] Supply - MEG device operating rate continues to rise to 75.1% (+2%). Although some coal - chemical devices have maintenance, the overall load is still at a high level. Overseas arrivals are expected to increase again this week [5][137] Demand - Polyester device load maintains at 90.3% (+0.3%), and the recovery of polyester operating rate is slower than expected, which has a negative impact on raw materials [5] Valuation - Coal - based MEG profit rebounds to 562 (+40) yuan/ton, naphtha - based MEG loss expands to - 700 (-30) yuan/ton, and MTO profit recovers [5][133] Market Indicators - Unilateral price shows an upward trend, and the month spread is at a low level; MEG's relative valuations against ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics all rise to the highest levels of the year [126][130] Related Factors - Sheng Hong's unexpected shutdown has a slight and short - term impact on the load; overall supply increases; MEG imports are expected to increase in September; overseas device, such as Ma You 75, restarts [135][139][141] Group 5: 2025 Polyester Raw Material and Polyester Production Plan - PX production capacity will increase by 3 million tons in the second half of the year; PTA production capacity will increase by 6 million tons; MEG production capacity will increase by 800,000 tons; polyester production capacity will increase by 3.05 million tons throughout the year, with a relatively even distribution [7]