1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Short - term rebound, PXN compression. Demand improvement and cost support lead to a short - term rebound in PX unilateral price, and PXN should be shorted on rallies [3]. - PTA: Enter a positive feedback pattern in the short term, and the unilateral trend is regarded as strong [4]. - MEG: There is a short - term rebound, with positive spreads for month - to - month and basis, and short positions below 4000 should be reduced [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PX Valuation - Domestic PX price rebounded significantly last week, and the forward curve of Zhengshang PX futures shifted downward overall. Overseas PX turned to B structure, and overseas aromatics valuation was supported by strong overseas oil cracking spreads. Attention should be paid to the aromatics blending demand in Asia in the fourth quarter [18][23][29][40]. - PX - MX spread remained around 100 US dollars/ton, and Asian MX blending for oil warmed up [44]. Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rate was at a historical high. In September, PX domestic output was 3220000 tons, and this week's operating rate was 85.9% (+1%). The apparent consumption in September was 4040000 tons, and the loss in September was 377000 tons. Next week, Fujia Dahua's 1.4 million - ton plant will gradually restart [50][51][52][56]. - In September, PX imports were expected to be 850000 tons. China's imports from South Korea were 330000 tons in September, and imports from Saudi Arabia remained low. The operating rate of Asian PX plants this week was 78.5% (+0.5%) [58][60][62]. Inventory - In September, Longzhong's monthly PX inventory decreased to 3.92 million tons (+3) [73]. PTA Valuation - The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread anti - arbitrage should be exited. Attention should be paid to the unplanned production cuts of PTA under low processing fees. PTA spot processing fees fell to 80 yuan/ton [79][82][83]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate remained around 78.8%. In September, PTA production was 6.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. In September, PTA exports were 340000 tons, a month - on - month increase. PTA inventory was at a low level [88][91][106]. Position - The short positions of Morgan Qiankun in PTA decreased, and the short positions of foreign capital seats increased to 202000 lots (-13000) this week [110][112]. MEG Valuation - The price rebounded from the bottom this week, and the basis recovered. The valuation of MEG relative to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics all rebounded to the highest level this year. Coal - based plant profits were - 2 yuan/ton (-50), and oil - based plants continued to be in a loss pattern [120][125][128]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate reached a new high this year. The MEG plant load was 73.3% (-3.9%), and the coal - based operating rate was 82.2% (+0.3%). In September, imports were 620000 tons. Overseas, multiple sets of plants were shut down for maintenance, and the European arbitrage window was gradually closing. Port inventory increased marginally [131][133][134][137][142]. Polyester Supply and Demand - The polyester load remained at 91.4% (-%). Due to the cold air moving south and the continuous improvement of Double Eleven orders, the downstream loom order index rebounded, and the finished fabric inventory continued to decline. The market expected the polyester load to be 91.5% in October, 91% in November, and 90% in December. Polyester production increased by 7% year - on - year [148][152]. Inventory - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the inventory pressure of filament yarn was relieved [155].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a polyester data weekly report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 31, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: PX Analysis Core View - Unilateral trend is strong, but do not chase high, buy on dips; 11 - 01 calendar spread is in a positive carry, 1 - 5 is in an inverse carry; for cross - variety, long PX short EB, long naphtha short PX, long PTA short PX in the 11 contract [3] Supply - Asian PX operating rate is 75.6% (-0.7%), domestic PX operating rate is 83.3% (-1.3%). In September, Fujia Dahua plans to conduct maintenance, while Fuhua Group plans to restart, leading to a marginal increase in supply [3][47] Demand - Domestic PTA plants have unexpected maintenance due to environmental issues, and the PTA operating rate has decreased. There are also potential maintenance plans for Xin Fengming's PTA plants at the end of August [3] Valuation - PXN drops to $254/ton (-$16), PX - MX spread is $135 (-$6)/ton [3] Market Indicators - Zhengshang PX futures forward curve declines; PX CFR China price, PX RMB price, and PX futures prices show certain fluctuations, with the 09 contract's foreign - domestic spread and 9 - 1 month spread changing [15][16] Related Factors - China's gasoline export plan decreases, overseas oil product cracking spreads strengthen; Asian octane value rebounds significantly; US gasoline inventory decreases seasonally, and US octane value strengthens month - on - month; MX isomerization unit profit reaches a new high [25][26][33][36] Group 3: PTA Analysis Core View - Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the trend is strong. Buy on dips [4] Supply - After the unexpected shutdown of Hengli Huizhou's device, PTA turns into a de - stocking pattern. Some plants have maintenance or production suspension, and new devices are put into production. The PTA load is 70.4% (-1.2%) [4] Demand - Polyester device load maintains at 90.3% (+0.3%). In September, the polyester operating rate is expected to be around 91% on average. However, the downstream grey fabric has difficulty in raising prices, and the market has doubts about the peak season, resulting in the polyester operating rate recovering slower than expected [4] Valuation - PTA spot processing fee is 235/ton (+28), the 01 contract processing fee is 342 yuan/ton (-2), and the 09 contract processing fee is 230 (-22), rebounding after a decline [4] Market Indicators - Unilateral price rises first and then falls back; the basis weakens; the 1 - 5 month spread is in an inverse carry; the number of PTA warehouse receipts shows certain changes [77][79][81] Related Factors - Container freight rates decline, which is beneficial for exports; PTA exports increase from July to August; PTA inventory declines again [89][91][106] Foreign Investment Position - This week, foreign institutional seats' short positions increase to 26,000 lots; Morgan Qiankun's PTA position turns short again [112][113] Group 4: MEG Analysis Core View - Unilateral is in a sideways market, do not chase high. Above 4550, the valuation is high. Long PTA short MEG [5] Supply - MEG device operating rate continues to rise to 75.1% (+2%). Although some coal - chemical devices have maintenance, the overall load is still at a high level. Overseas arrivals are expected to increase again this week [5][137] Demand - Polyester device load maintains at 90.3% (+0.3%), and the recovery of polyester operating rate is slower than expected, which has a negative impact on raw materials [5] Valuation - Coal - based MEG profit rebounds to 562 (+40) yuan/ton, naphtha - based MEG loss expands to - 700 (-30) yuan/ton, and MTO profit recovers [5][133] Market Indicators - Unilateral price shows an upward trend, and the month spread is at a low level; MEG's relative valuations against ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics all rise to the highest levels of the year [126][130] Related Factors - Sheng Hong's unexpected shutdown has a slight and short - term impact on the load; overall supply increases; MEG imports are expected to increase in September; overseas device, such as Ma You 75, restarts [135][139][141] Group 5: 2025 Polyester Raw Material and Polyester Production Plan - PX production capacity will increase by 3 million tons in the second half of the year; PTA production capacity will increase by 6 million tons; MEG production capacity will increase by 800,000 tons; polyester production capacity will increase by 3.05 million tons throughout the year, with a relatively even distribution [7]