1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to the lack of support from supply and demand, the polyester sector will undergo weak adjustments. It is advisable to be cautiously bearish in the short - term. Crude oil affects the market's fluctuation rhythm, and attention should be paid to the risk of price reversals [37]. - In the medium - to - long - term, as it is the off - season for terminal demand, the polyester sector will generally continue to fluctuate within a low - level range [38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important Information - OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) reaffirmed the importance of full compliance with quotas on Monday and made no adjustments to future production policies. Eight member countries will hold a separate meeting on Sunday to discuss further production increases in September [5]. - Trump stated that if Russia fails to make progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the US will start imposing tariffs on Russia in 10 days and take other measures, which has raised concerns about supply in the market [6]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the 4.25% - 4.5% range in its July meeting, in line with market expectations. The monetary policy statement indicated that economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, the labor market remained stable, and inflation was still slightly high [7]. - EIA data showed that last week, US crude oil inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels, while analysts expected a decrease of 1.3 million barrels. US gasoline inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels, and distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 3.6 million barrels [8]. - Trump announced that starting from August 1, the US will impose a 25% tariff on goods from India and additional punitive fees, which may affect Russia's oil exports of 2.3 million barrels per day [8]. - On July 31, Trump signed an executive order to set "reciprocal tariff" rates ranging from 10% to 41% for multiple countries and regions [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil continuous futures price rose from $66.2 per barrel on July 24 to $69.22 per barrel on July 31, with a weekly increase of $3 and a week - on - week increase of 4.56%. The price of naphtha increased from $576.13 per ton to $611 per ton, with a weekly increase of $34.87 and a week - on - week increase of 6.05% [11]. - For PX509 futures, the price decreased from 6956 yuan/ton to 6928 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 28 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The PX CFR price in Taiwan Province increased from 7040.31 yuan/ton to 7072.98 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 32.67 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 0.46% [11]. - TA509 futures price decreased from 4850 yuan/ton to 4808 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 42 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%. The PTA spot benchmark price increased from 4810 yuan/ton to 4826 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 16 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 0.33% [11]. - EG509 futures price decreased from 4485 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 71 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 1.58%. The mainstream price of ethylene glycol in East China decreased from 4529 yuan/ton to 4492 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 37 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.82% [11]. - PF507 futures price decreased from 6520 yuan/ton to 6464 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 56 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.86%. The mainstream price of polyester staple fiber in East China decreased from 6605 yuan/ton to 6595 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% [11]. - PR507 futures price decreased from 6042 yuan/ton to 5974 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 68 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 1.13%. The mainstream price of polyester bottle chips in East China decreased from 6005 yuan/ton to 5990 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% [11]. - The PX basis increased from 84.31 yuan/ton to 144.98 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 60.67 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 71.96%. The price of POY150D/48F increased from 6675 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 75 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [11]. - The PTA basis increased from - 40 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 58 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of - 145.00%. The price of FDY150D/96F increased from 6925 yuan/ton to 7050 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 125 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 1.81% [11]. - The ethylene glycol basis increased from 44 yuan/ton to 78 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 77.27%. The price of DTY150D/48F increased from 7925 yuan/ton to 7950 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 25 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 0.32% [11]. - The staple fiber basis increased from 85 yuan/ton to 131 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 46 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 54.12% [11]. - The polyester bottle chip basis increased from - 37 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 53 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of - 143.24% [11]. 3.3 PX - Due to the maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical and the continued maintenance of plants such as Fuhai Chuang, Weilian Chemical, and Fujia Dahua, domestic PX production decreased slightly. As of August 1, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 82.35% (- 0.46%), and the weekly output was 69.06 tons (- 0.56%) [16]. - The 400,000 - ton plant of Idemitsu in Japan had a malfunction and shut down, while the Asian load remained stable. As of August 1, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 71.98%, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.02% [16]. - Next week, plants such as Dalian Fujia's 700,000 - ton plant, Fuhai Chuang's 1.6 - million - ton plant, Weilian's 1 - million - ton plant, and Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton plant will continue maintenance, and Ningbo Daxie is expected to increase its load. The weekly output of PX is expected to increase slightly [16]. 3.4 PTA - This week, there were both plant shutdowns and load reductions. Taihua shut down, and New Materials and Yihua reduced their loads, resulting in a tightened supply. As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA was 79.67% (- 1.09%), and the weekly output was 1.4261 million tons (- 18,900 tons) [22][23]. - The 3.2 - million - ton new plant of Hailun Petrochemical may start production. A 2.2 - million - ton plant in Jiaxing began maintenance for two weeks on August 1, and a 1.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Taihua had a short - term shutdown of about 3 days on July 31. PTA output is expected to continue to decline next week [23]. - This week, PTA social inventories continued to accumulate slightly. As of July 25, 2025, the available days of PTA inventory in factories were 3.82 days (- 0.17 days), the PTA inventory in polyester factories was 7 days (+ 0.05 days), and the PTA social inventory was about 3.8205 million tons (+ 16,700 tons) [23]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - Yangmei Shouyang's 300,000 - ton plant restarted and increased its load, while Shanxi Meijin's 300,000 - ton plant slightly reduced its load. Some plants made minor adjustments, and domestic ethylene glycol supply increased slightly this week. As of July 31, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic ethylene glycol was 60.67% (+ 1.47%) [24][25]. - Affected by typhoon weather, port inventories decreased. As of July 31, the inventory in East China ports was 427,200 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons from Monday and 47,800 tons from last Thursday. Next week, the arrival of imported goods will increase slightly, and the pace of port inventory reduction will slow down [25]. 3.6 Polyester End - The weekly average polyester operating rate was 85.82%, a decrease of 0.58% compared with last week [26]. 3.7 Polyester Inventory - During the week, the inventory of polyester filament increased slightly [29]. 3.8 Terminal - As of July 31, the operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 55.51% (- 0.08%) [35]. - The order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 7.33 days (+ 0.39 days) [35]. - The inventory days of grey cloth were 30.57 days (- 0.17 days) [35].