Report Overview - The report is a weekly data report on the energy and chemical sector, including the polyester and methanol segments, released by New Era Futures Research on November 7, 2025 [1][2][4][30] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the PX supply pressure is not significant, the PTA supply is expected to tighten, and their盘面 performance is relatively strong, but the demand - side drive is insufficient, limiting the rebound space. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase slightly, and with rigid demand, it has insufficient rebound momentum and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the demand drive is insufficient, and supply changes dominate the market rhythm. In the fourth quarter, the polyester sector shows a differentiated trend, with PX and PTA being relatively strong and ethylene glycol being under pressure. For methanol, in the short - term, the high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, MTO is continuously losing money, and the main demand support weakens, so it may fluctuate in the bottom range. In the long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point, and if the medium - and long - term signals are positive, methanol has the basis for a stable rebound [28][47] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price (OSP) for Asian customers in December, indicating a cautious attitude towards the crude oil demand outlook. OPEC+ will maintain the production increase rhythm in December but suspend the increase plan in the first three months of 2026. The US sanctions on Russian oil companies have led to a significant reduction in Russia's crude oil exports to India. US commercial crude oil inventories increased due to a large increase in imports, while gasoline inventories continued to decline [5][6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.34% week - on - week, while naphtha spot prices increased by 0.54%. PX601 futures prices increased by 6.96%, and PX CFR in Taiwan increased by 1.19%. TA601 futures prices increased by 2.58%, and PTA spot benchmark prices increased by 0.22%. EG601 futures prices decreased by 2.68%, and ethylene glycol's East China mainstream price decreased by 4.03%. PF512 futures prices increased by 1.12%, and polyester staple fiber's East China mainstream price decreased by 0.55%. PR601 futures prices increased by 0.75%, and polyester bottle chip's East China mainstream price increased by 0.17% [9] 3.3 Supply - side Analysis 3.3.1 PX - Dalian Fujia's 70 - ton device restarted and ran at full capacity, and another 70 - ton device is planned to restart next week. As of November 7, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.03%, a 1.25% increase from last week, and the PX output was 74.67 tons, a 1.25% increase [13] 3.3.2 PTA - Dongying Weilian reduced its load, Yisheng Dahua increased its load after reduction, Dushan Energy's old 250 - ton device was under maintenance after the new 300 - ton device was put into production, and Xinjiang Zhongtai's 120 - ton device restarted. As of November 7, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 77.69%, a 0.69 - percentage - point decrease from last week, and the weekly output was 148.483 tons, a 3.45 - ton increase. PTA social inventory increased slightly. Under low processing fees, large PTA manufacturers have maintenance expectations, but the implementation needs attention [14] 3.3.3 Ethylene Glycol - Fujian United restarted, Sanjiang Chemical increased its load, and some devices were under maintenance. As of November 7, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 65.88%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase. Coal - based devices are planned to restart, and the domestic supply is expected to increase slightly. Port inventory increased, but the inventory accumulation rhythm may slow down [15][16] 3.3.4 Methanol - As of November 6, the methanol production start - up rate was 87.79%, a 1.18 - percentage - point increase, and the domestic output was 199.2 tons, a 1.37% increase. This week, the total restored production capacity was about 2.91 million tons/year, and the total lost production capacity was about 2 million tons/year. Next week, the planned restored production capacity is about 1.6 million tons/year, with no new maintenance plans [39][40] 3.4 Demand - side Analysis 3.4.1 Polyester - The weekly average start - up rate of the polyester end was 87.8%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase. Polyester staple fiber and filament inventories decreased slightly. New device production was postponed, and large - scale maintenance was postponed. Next week, polyester device changes are limited, and production is expected to increase slightly. Weaving orders decreased, and procurement was mainly rigid [17][20] 3.4.2 Methanol - The MTO start - up rate continued to decline, and Shandong Hengtong entered maintenance. Traditional downstream industries entered the off - season, and the overall start - up rate decreased, with weak demand support [43] 3.5 Inventory Analysis 3.5.1 PTA - As of November 6, PTA factory inventory was available for 4.09 days (a 0.06 - day increase), polyester factory PTA inventory was 6.10 days (a 0.35 - day decrease), and PTA social inventory was about 316.08 tons (a 2.53 - ton increase) [14] 3.5.2 Ethylene Glycol - As of November 6, the East China port inventory was 56.4 tons, a 6.5 - ton increase from last Thursday and a 5.3 - ton increase from Monday [16] 3.5.3 Methanol - As of November 5, the port inventory was 151.71 tons, a 1.06 - ton increase, and the inland inventory was 38.64 tons, a 1.03 - ton increase. The port inventory increased slightly due to the unmet unloading expectations, and the inland inventory continued to increase due to high supply and reverse flow of port goods [46] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations 3.6.1 Polyester Sector - Short - term: PX supply pressure is not significant, PTA supply is expected to tighten, and the disk is relatively strong, but the demand - side drive is insufficient, and the rebound space is limited. Ethylene glycol may fluctuate at a low level. Long - term: The demand drive is insufficient, and the supply change dominates the market rhythm. PX and PTA are relatively strong, and ethylene glycol is under pressure [28] 3.6.2 Methanol - Short - term: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, MTO is continuously losing money, and methanol may fluctuate in the bottom range. Long - term: Focus on the port inventory inflection point and the import reduction caused by Iran's gas restriction. If the long - term signal is positive, methanol has the basis for a stable rebound [47] 3.7 Next Week's Concerns - For the polyester sector, concerns include the change in the Russia - Ukraine situation, macro - market sentiment, and the operation of upstream and downstream devices. For methanol, concerns include high - inventory pressure, the recovery of maintenance devices, and macro - market sentiment [29][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to the lack of support from supply and demand, the polyester sector will undergo weak adjustments. It is advisable to be cautiously bearish in the short - term. Crude oil affects the market's fluctuation rhythm, and attention should be paid to the risk of price reversals [37]. - In the medium - to - long - term, as it is the off - season for terminal demand, the polyester sector will generally continue to fluctuate within a low - level range [38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important Information - OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) reaffirmed the importance of full compliance with quotas on Monday and made no adjustments to future production policies. Eight member countries will hold a separate meeting on Sunday to discuss further production increases in September [5]. - Trump stated that if Russia fails to make progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the US will start imposing tariffs on Russia in 10 days and take other measures, which has raised concerns about supply in the market [6]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the 4.25% - 4.5% range in its July meeting, in line with market expectations. The monetary policy statement indicated that economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, the labor market remained stable, and inflation was still slightly high [7]. - EIA data showed that last week, US crude oil inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels, while analysts expected a decrease of 1.3 million barrels. US gasoline inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels, and distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 3.6 million barrels [8]. - Trump announced that starting from August 1, the US will impose a 25% tariff on goods from India and additional punitive fees, which may affect Russia's oil exports of 2.3 million barrels per day [8]. - On July 31, Trump signed an executive order to set "reciprocal tariff" rates ranging from 10% to 41% for multiple countries and regions [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil continuous futures price rose from $66.2 per barrel on July 24 to $69.22 per barrel on July 31, with a weekly increase of $3 and a week - on - week increase of 4.56%. The price of naphtha increased from $576.13 per ton to $611 per ton, with a weekly increase of $34.87 and a week - on - week increase of 6.05% [11]. - For PX509 futures, the price decreased from 6956 yuan/ton to 6928 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 28 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The PX CFR price in Taiwan Province increased from 7040.31 yuan/ton to 7072.98 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 32.67 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 0.46% [11]. - TA509 futures price decreased from 4850 yuan/ton to 4808 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 42 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%. The PTA spot benchmark price increased from 4810 yuan/ton to 4826 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 16 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 0.33% [11]. - EG509 futures price decreased from 4485 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 71 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 1.58%. The mainstream price of ethylene glycol in East China decreased from 4529 yuan/ton to 4492 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 37 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.82% [11]. - PF507 futures price decreased from 6520 yuan/ton to 6464 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 56 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.86%. The mainstream price of polyester staple fiber in East China decreased from 6605 yuan/ton to 6595 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% [11]. - PR507 futures price decreased from 6042 yuan/ton to 5974 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 68 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 1.13%. The mainstream price of polyester bottle chips in East China decreased from 6005 yuan/ton to 5990 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% [11]. - The PX basis increased from 84.31 yuan/ton to 144.98 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 60.67 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 71.96%. The price of POY150D/48F increased from 6675 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 75 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [11]. - The PTA basis increased from - 40 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 58 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of - 145.00%. The price of FDY150D/96F increased from 6925 yuan/ton to 7050 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 125 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 1.81% [11]. - The ethylene glycol basis increased from 44 yuan/ton to 78 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 77.27%. The price of DTY150D/48F increased from 7925 yuan/ton to 7950 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 25 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 0.32% [11]. - The staple fiber basis increased from 85 yuan/ton to 131 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 46 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 54.12% [11]. - The polyester bottle chip basis increased from - 37 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 53 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of - 143.24% [11]. 3.3 PX - Due to the maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical and the continued maintenance of plants such as Fuhai Chuang, Weilian Chemical, and Fujia Dahua, domestic PX production decreased slightly. As of August 1, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 82.35% (- 0.46%), and the weekly output was 69.06 tons (- 0.56%) [16]. - The 400,000 - ton plant of Idemitsu in Japan had a malfunction and shut down, while the Asian load remained stable. As of August 1, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 71.98%, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.02% [16]. - Next week, plants such as Dalian Fujia's 700,000 - ton plant, Fuhai Chuang's 1.6 - million - ton plant, Weilian's 1 - million - ton plant, and Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton plant will continue maintenance, and Ningbo Daxie is expected to increase its load. The weekly output of PX is expected to increase slightly [16]. 3.4 PTA - This week, there were both plant shutdowns and load reductions. Taihua shut down, and New Materials and Yihua reduced their loads, resulting in a tightened supply. As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA was 79.67% (- 1.09%), and the weekly output was 1.4261 million tons (- 18,900 tons) [22][23]. - The 3.2 - million - ton new plant of Hailun Petrochemical may start production. A 2.2 - million - ton plant in Jiaxing began maintenance for two weeks on August 1, and a 1.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Taihua had a short - term shutdown of about 3 days on July 31. PTA output is expected to continue to decline next week [23]. - This week, PTA social inventories continued to accumulate slightly. As of July 25, 2025, the available days of PTA inventory in factories were 3.82 days (- 0.17 days), the PTA inventory in polyester factories was 7 days (+ 0.05 days), and the PTA social inventory was about 3.8205 million tons (+ 16,700 tons) [23]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - Yangmei Shouyang's 300,000 - ton plant restarted and increased its load, while Shanxi Meijin's 300,000 - ton plant slightly reduced its load. Some plants made minor adjustments, and domestic ethylene glycol supply increased slightly this week. As of July 31, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic ethylene glycol was 60.67% (+ 1.47%) [24][25]. - Affected by typhoon weather, port inventories decreased. As of July 31, the inventory in East China ports was 427,200 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons from Monday and 47,800 tons from last Thursday. Next week, the arrival of imported goods will increase slightly, and the pace of port inventory reduction will slow down [25]. 3.6 Polyester End - The weekly average polyester operating rate was 85.82%, a decrease of 0.58% compared with last week [26]. 3.7 Polyester Inventory - During the week, the inventory of polyester filament increased slightly [29]. 3.8 Terminal - As of July 31, the operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 55.51% (- 0.08%) [35]. - The order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 7.33 days (+ 0.39 days) [35]. - The inventory days of grey cloth were 30.57 days (- 0.17 days) [35].