9月16日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，甲醇期货盘中呈现震荡运行，主力合约报收于2375.00 元/吨，微跌0.46%。 基本面上，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能损 失量，整体产量小幅增加，十一长假前中下游备货陆续展开，叠加内蒙古部分烯烃企业继续增量外采提 振，上周内地企业库存水平有所下降。 需求方面，格林大华期货指出，西北甲醇企业签单8.98万吨，环比增加1.44万吨。样本企业订单待发 25.07万吨，较上期增加0.94万吨，环比涨3.91%。烯烃开 率82.6%，环 -3.1%；二甲醚开 率4.8%，环 持 平；甲烷氯化物开 率85.6%，环 -0.2%；醋酸开 率83.1%，环 -1.1%；甲醛开 率43.1%，环 +5.4%； MBTE开工率61.6%，环比-0.5% 后市来看，宁证期货表示，国内甲醇开工高位，下游需求较稳，9月预期进口量维持高位，甲醇港口库 存继续积累。内地甲醇市场窄幅震荡，企业竞拍成交尚可，港口甲醇市场现货基差维稳，商谈成交尚 可。预计甲醇01合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑2395一线，建议观望。 宏观方面，据中辉期货介绍，美欧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2420 in the short term [7] - The overall domestic methanol market is boosted by the macro - environment, but the port methanol market has limited upward space due to high import expectations. The port market shows an oscillating and weakening trend, while the inland market rises [8] - Recently, the output of the restored methanol production capacity is less than the loss of the overhauled and reduced - production capacity, leading to a slight decrease in the overall output [8] - The inventory of inland enterprises decreases this week, while the port inventory accumulates significantly. The olefin industry's starting rate rises slightly this week but is expected to decline next week [8] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2350 - 2420 range [7] - Market trend: The average price of the domestic port methanol market drops this week, with an oscillating and weakening trend. The inland market rises, with the price in the Ordos northern line ranging from 2065 - 2110 yuan/ton and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranging from 2320 - 2345 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: The overall methanol output decreases slightly. Inland enterprise inventory decreases, and port inventory accumulates. The olefin industry's starting rate rises slightly this week but may decline next week [8] 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillates and closes down this week, with a decline of 0.42% [13] - Inter - period spread: As of August 8, the MA 9 - 1 spread is - 92 [17] - Position analysis: Not provided in the content - Warehouse receipts: As of August 7, the Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts are 8688, an increase of 142 compared with last week [25] 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 8, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area is 2382.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia is 2105 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 277.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with last week [31] - Foreign price: As of August 7, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port is 270 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port is 63 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton compared with last week [37] - Basis: As of August 8, the Zhengzhou methanol basis is - 0.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week [41] 3.4. Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of August 6, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal is 670 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of August 7, the NYMEX natural gas closes at 3.08 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.02 dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [44] - Industry: As of August 7, China's methanol output is 1845225 tons, a decrease of 67900 tons compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a decrease of 3.55% month - on - month [50] - Inventory: As of August 6, the total port inventory is 92.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises is 29.37 tons, a decrease of 3.08 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 9.50% month - on - month; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 24.08 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 4.37% month - on - month [53] - Import: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 5.58% compared with last week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume is 537.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.68%. As of August 7, the methanol import profit is 41.04 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.4 yuan/ton compared with last week [56] - Downstream: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 85.11%, an increase of 1.5% month - on - month. As of August 8, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared with last week [59][62] 3.5. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.07.25」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 4 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2509合约短线预计在2460-2550区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内港口甲醇市场略偏强，其中江苏价格波动区间在2370-2480元/吨，广东价格 波动在2370-2450元/吨。内地甲醇市场上涨为主，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在2085- 2100元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2255-2285元/吨。宏观利好持续发酵，加之产区库存 低位，部分装置装修叠加烯烃仍有外采需求，导致价格持续走强。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能损失量，整体产量小幅增 加。本周受宏观政策利好提振，市场交投氛围较好，内地企业出货顺畅，带动企业待发订单小幅 增加，企业库存明显下降。本周港口卸货速度大幅不及预期，而提货及消费情况淡稳，甲醇港口 库存计划外去库，下周外轮抵港量或大幅回升 ...