1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall risk preference in the crude oil market has improved, and oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors on oil prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.33 to $60.48 per barrel (0.55% increase), Brent December contract rose $0.52 to $64.92 per barrel (0.81% increase), and SC2512 closed at 465.1 yuan per barrel, up 5.9 yuan (1.28% increase). EIA inventory data showed a comprehensive decline in inventories. Mexican national oil company's production decreased year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate - cut path is uncertain. The market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The Asian low - sulfur market structure weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable. FU and LU absolute prices will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. In November, the refinery's asphalt production plan decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory levels all decreased. The supply pressure will ease, and there is still a rush - work expectation in some markets. The BU absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester improved, and the fundamentals of TA improved. However, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter, and its price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber contract fell. The social inventory of natural rubber decreased. Due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and good demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic overhauled devices are gradually resuming production, and the overseas Iranian devices will be restricted by winter gas curtailment. The short - term port supply is still abundant, and methanol prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and prices are expected to enter a fluctuating stage [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China were reported. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on October 29 and 28, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. It also shows the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - US EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories last week exceeded analysts' expectations, forcing the market to re - evaluate the expectation of a large surplus in the oil market [11] - Trump predicted that his talks with Chinese leaders would yield good results. The talks are scheduled for Thursday at a summit in South Korea. The positive news about the Sino - US talks and the US - South Korea trade agreement eased investors' concerns about the economic recession caused by Trump's tariffs and trade wars [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as the spread between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts of fuel oil, and the spread between the main and sub - main contracts of asphalt [39] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It provides the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP from 2018 to 2025 [63] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [67] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [68] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis and research on related varieties [69] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the average price of the port methanol market strengthened, while the inland methanol market declined weakly. The domestic methanol production decreased slightly, and the enterprise inventory increased. The port inventory decreased overall, but there is still a possibility of an increase in October. The olefin industry's operating rate remained high, and the MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2250 - 2340 range [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the average price of the port methanol market strengthened, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2200 - 2340 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2210 - 2310 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market declined weakly, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2083 - 2078 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2290 - 2300 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production decreased slightly due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than recoveries. The enterprise inventory increased due to weak downstream demand and low logistics enthusiasm. The port inventory decreased overall, but there is a possibility of an increase in October due to sufficient import expectations. The olefin industry's operating rate remained high and is expected to continue so in the short term [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2250 - 2340 range [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed lower, with a -1.52% decline in the main contract price [10]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of October 17, the MA 1 - 5 spread was -18 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific information on the trend of net long positions of the top 20 is provided. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 16, there were 11282 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 100 from last week [24]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of October 17, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2280 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2052.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 227.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.5 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of October 16, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 264 dollars/ton, an increase of 12 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 61 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton from last week [33]. - **Basis**: As of October 17, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of October 15, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of October 16, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.93 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.32 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41]. - **Industry**: As of October 16, China's methanol production was 1983655 tons, a decrease of 47850 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a decrease of 2.36% month - on - month. As of October 15, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 35.99 million tons, an increase of 2.05 million tons from the previous period, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 22.89 million tons, an increase of 11.37 million tons from the previous period. The total port inventory was 149.14 million tons, a decrease of 5.18 million tons from the previous data. In August 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.7598 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59.59%; from January to August, the cumulative imports were 8.2398 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.52%. As of October 16, the methanol import profit was 21.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week [46][50][55]. - **Downstream**: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 94.21%, a decrease of 0.01% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was -1065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton from last week [58][61].

9月16日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，甲醇期货盘中呈现震荡运行，主力合约报收于2375.00 元/吨，微跌0.46%。 基本面上，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能损 失量，整体产量小幅增加，十一长假前中下游备货陆续展开，叠加内蒙古部分烯烃企业继续增量外采提 振，上周内地企业库存水平有所下降。 需求方面，格林大华期货指出，西北甲醇企业签单8.98万吨，环比增加1.44万吨。样本企业订单待发 25.07万吨，较上期增加0.94万吨，环比涨3.91%。烯烃开 率82.6%，环 -3.1%；二甲醚开 率4.8%，环 持 平；甲烷氯化物开 率85.6%，环 -0.2%；醋酸开 率83.1%，环 -1.1%；甲醛开 率43.1%，环 +5.4%； MBTE开工率61.6%，环比-0.5% 后市来看，宁证期货表示，国内甲醇开工高位，下游需求较稳，9月预期进口量维持高位，甲醇港口库 存继续积累。内地甲醇市场窄幅震荡，企业竞拍成交尚可，港口甲醇市场现货基差维稳，商谈成交尚 可。预计甲醇01合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑2395一线，建议观望。 宏观方面，据中辉期货介绍，美欧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2420 in the short term [7] - The overall domestic methanol market is boosted by the macro - environment, but the port methanol market has limited upward space due to high import expectations. The port market shows an oscillating and weakening trend, while the inland market rises [8] - Recently, the output of the restored methanol production capacity is less than the loss of the overhauled and reduced - production capacity, leading to a slight decrease in the overall output [8] - The inventory of inland enterprises decreases this week, while the port inventory accumulates significantly. The olefin industry's starting rate rises slightly this week but is expected to decline next week [8] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2350 - 2420 range [7] - Market trend: The average price of the domestic port methanol market drops this week, with an oscillating and weakening trend. The inland market rises, with the price in the Ordos northern line ranging from 2065 - 2110 yuan/ton and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranging from 2320 - 2345 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: The overall methanol output decreases slightly. Inland enterprise inventory decreases, and port inventory accumulates. The olefin industry's starting rate rises slightly this week but may decline next week [8] 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillates and closes down this week, with a decline of 0.42% [13] - Inter - period spread: As of August 8, the MA 9 - 1 spread is - 92 [17] - Position analysis: Not provided in the content - Warehouse receipts: As of August 7, the Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts are 8688, an increase of 142 compared with last week [25] 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 8, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area is 2382.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia is 2105 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 277.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with last week [31] - Foreign price: As of August 7, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port is 270 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port is 63 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton compared with last week [37] - Basis: As of August 8, the Zhengzhou methanol basis is - 0.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week [41] 3.4. Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of August 6, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal is 670 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of August 7, the NYMEX natural gas closes at 3.08 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.02 dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [44] - Industry: As of August 7, China's methanol output is 1845225 tons, a decrease of 67900 tons compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a decrease of 3.55% month - on - month [50] - Inventory: As of August 6, the total port inventory is 92.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises is 29.37 tons, a decrease of 3.08 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 9.50% month - on - month; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 24.08 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 4.37% month - on - month [53] - Import: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 5.58% compared with last week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume is 537.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.68%. As of August 7, the methanol import profit is 41.04 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.4 yuan/ton compared with last week [56] - Downstream: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 85.11%, an increase of 1.5% month - on - month. As of August 8, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared with last week [59][62] 3.5. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.07.25」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 4 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2509合约短线预计在2460-2550区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内港口甲醇市场略偏强，其中江苏价格波动区间在2370-2480元/吨，广东价格 波动在2370-2450元/吨。内地甲醇市场上涨为主，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在2085- 2100元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2255-2285元/吨。宏观利好持续发酵，加之产区库存 低位，部分装置装修叠加烯烃仍有外采需求，导致价格持续走强。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能损失量，整体产量小幅增 加。本周受宏观政策利好提振，市场交投氛围较好，内地企业出货顺畅，带动企业待发订单小幅 增加，企业库存明显下降。本周港口卸货速度大幅不及预期，而提货及消费情况淡稳，甲醇港口 库存计划外去库，下周外轮抵港量或大幅回升 ...