Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the port methanol market continued to rise, and the inland methanol market also showed an upward trend. The market was mainly driven by the sentiment of the futures market, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market was active. In the near term, the overall methanol production increased as the production capacity loss from maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from restored production. The inland enterprises reduced their inventories, and the port methanol inventory continued to decline. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants increased, and the MTO industry's operation rate is expected to exceed 90% next week. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the short - term methanol price is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to geopolitical developments [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market rose, with the price range in Jiangsu being 2970 - 3360 yuan/ton and in Guangdong being 3000 - 3430 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price center shifted upward, with the price range in the Ordos northern line in the main production area being 2315 - 2430 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price range being 2365 - 2800 yuan/ton. The market was driven by the futures market, and the spot - market trading was active [7] - **Market Outlook**: The overall methanol production increased. Inland enterprises reduced their inventories, and the port methanol inventory continued to decline. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants increased, and the MTO industry's operation rate is expected to exceed 90% next week [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the short - term methanol price is expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to geopolitical developments [7] 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 5.24% [10] - **Inter - period Spread**: As of March 27, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 290 [17] - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 26, there were 7981 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 340 from last week [25] 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of March 26, the mainstream price in the East China Taicang area was 3265 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in the Northwest Inner Mongolia area was 2425 yuan/ton, an increase of 132.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 840 yuan/ton, an increase of 47.5 yuan/ton from last week [30] - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of March 26, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 397 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 203 US dollars/ton, an increase of 43 US dollars/ton from last week [35] - **Domestic Basis**: As of March 26, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 63 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton from last week [39] 3.4 Industrial Chain Analysis - **Upstream Situation**: As of March 25, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 690 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of March 26, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.97 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] - **Industrial Situation**: As of March 26, China's methanol production was 2071615 tons, an increase of 17700 tons from last week; the capacity utilization rate of the plants was 92.73%, a month - on - month increase of 0.86%. As of March 25, the inventory of China's sample methanol production enterprises was 43.50 million tons, a decrease of 5.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 28.39 million tons, an increase of 0.46 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.64%. As of March 25, the total inventory of China's methanol ports was 115.55 million tons, a decrease of 10.62 million tons from the previous data. In February 2026, China's methanol imports were 88.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.38%; from January to February 2026, China's cumulative methanol imports were 196.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.72%. As of March 26, the methanol import profit was - 53.31 yuan/ton, an increase of 156.09 yuan/ton from last week [45][50][54] - **Downstream Situation**: As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.86%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%. The operation rate of the domestic MTO industry is expected to exceed 90% next week. As of March 27, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 1375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 198 yuan/ton from last week [57][60] 3.5 Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the report

Group 1: Report Summary - Strategy suggestion: Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7] - Market review: This week, the port methanol market rose significantly. The price range in Jiangsu was 2790 - 3180 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong was 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price also increased substantially. The price range in the main production area of Erdos North Line was 2160 - 2330 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying was 2505 - 2555 yuan/ton. The inland market was supported by concentrated procurement from some olefin factories and market sentiment, but the downstream was hesitant due to high prices, and the inland increase was less than that of the port market [8] - Market outlook: Recently, the production capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production, so the overall output has increased. This week, inland enterprises reduced inventory. Sample enterprises in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi had good sales, and the long - term contracts were executed smoothly. The downstream was active in purchasing, resulting in an increase in the volume of orders to be delivered and a decrease in inventory. The port inventory continued to decline. Although there were some re - exports at the port recently, the coastal methanol sales were poor, and the delivery volume in some warehouses was low. The number of visible foreign vessels arriving at the port was small. The short - term port methanol inventory will continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the changes in delivery volume and geopolitical situation [8] - MTO industry: The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants increased this week. The restart of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei Phase II plant and the increase in the load of Tianjin Bohua are expected to lead to a slight increase in the MTO industry's operating rate [8] Group 2: Futures Market - Price trend: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a weekly increase of 11.66% [13] - Inter - period spread: As of March 20, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 242 [17] - Position analysis: (No specific content provided in the summary requirements) - Warehouse receipts: As of March 19, there were 8709 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 2804 compared with last week [27] Group 3: Spot Market - Domestic price: As of March 19, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 3145 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2295 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 850 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton compared with last week [32] - Foreign price: As of March 19, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 392 US dollars/ton, an increase of 41 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 158 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared with last week [38] - Basis: As of March 19, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton compared with last week [42] Group 4: Industry Chain Upstream - Coal and gas prices: As of March 18, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of March 19, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.13 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [45] Industry - Production and capacity utilization: As of March 19, China's methanol production was 2074815 tons, an increase of 53680 tons compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate was 92.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.65% [48] - Inventory: As of March 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 48.54 tons, a decrease of 3.77 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.21%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 27.93 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.26%. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 126.17 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons compared with the previous data. Both the East China and South China regions reduced inventory [54] - Import: In February 2026, China's methanol imports were 88.47 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.38%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative imports of Chinese methanol were 196.86 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.72%. As of March 19, the methanol import profit was - 128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [58] Downstream - Operating rate: As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.57%, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The restart of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei Phase II plant and the increase in the load of Tianjin Bohua led to an increase in the industry's operating rate [61] - Profit: As of March 20, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 1177 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565 yuan/ton compared with last week [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7] - The methanol market in ports fluctuated widely at a high level this week, and the price of inland methanol increased significantly. The market was mainly driven by geopolitical sentiment, and the futures sentiment gradually spread to the spot market. With positive factors such as continuous inventory reduction by enterprises, local olefin external procurement demand, and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the price showed a sharp jump [8] - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the output of recovered production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall output. This week, inland enterprises and ports both reduced inventory. With the support of downstream demand along the Yangtze River, the pick - up was good, but the arrival of imported ships was less. With a significant reduction in supply, the domestic methanol inventory started the de - stocking channel. It is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to decline next week [8] - The start - up of the MTO industry decreased due to the short - term shutdown of the second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei. It is expected that the short - term industry start - up will remain stable [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Wait and see due to geopolitical uncertainties [7] - Market review: Port methanol prices fluctuated widely at high levels, and inland prices rose significantly. The market was driven by geopolitical sentiment, and futures sentiment spread to the spot market. Positive factors supported the price increase [8] - Market outlook: Domestic methanol production decreased, inventory decreased, and it is expected that port inventory may continue to decline next week. The MTO industry start - up is expected to remain stable [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: The main contract price of Zhengzhou methanol futures rose by 8.47% this week [11] - Inter - period spread: As of March 13, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 133 [16] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Warehouse receipt: As of March 12, there were 10333 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 937 compared to last week [24] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of March 12, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2810 yuan/ton, an increase of 280 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2212.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 597.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton compared to last week [30] - Foreign price: As of March 12, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 336 US dollars/ton, an increase of 27 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 159 US dollars/ton, an increase of 68 US dollars/ton compared to last week [35] - Basis: As of March 12, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was + 84 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to last week [39] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal price: As of March 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 690 yuan/ton, the same as last week [43] - Natural gas price: As of March 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [43] 3.5 Industry Situation - Production and start - up rate: As of March 12, China's methanol production was 2013855 tons, a decrease of 3610 tons compared to last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.18% month - on - month. Next week, the planned recovered production capacity is more than the maintenance and production - reduction capacity, which may lead to an increase in capacity utilization rate and production [46] - Inventory: As of March 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 52.31 tons, a decrease of 2.93 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.30%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 26.53 tons, a decrease of 2.98 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.10%. The total port inventory was 131.28 tons, a decrease of 13.07 tons compared to the previous data. Both East and South China regions reduced inventory. The port inventory decreased significantly due to a large reduction in supply [51] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 173.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%; from January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1440.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of March 12, the methanol import profit was - 2.24 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [56] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Start - up rate: As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 82.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. The start - up of the MTO industry decreased due to the short - term shutdown of the second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei [59] - Profit: As of March 13, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 612 yuan/ton, an increase of 149 yuan/ton compared to last week [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contradiction in the current market is anchored to the US - Iran situation. Although the negotiation progress is slow, there are differences in the market's view on the evolution of the conflict, so oil prices are fluctuating repeatedly, waiting for further guidance from market news [1]. - For fuel oil, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has marginally improved, and the high - sulfur supply has decreased. The short - term market still focuses on the impact of the latest developments in the US - Iran situation on the crude oil and fuel oil markets [2]. - For asphalt, the supply in the northern region remains relatively low, and refineries are mainly accumulating inventory. The short - term market still focuses on the impact of the latest developments in the US - Iran situation on the raw material market [2]. - For polyester, PX and PTA are expected to be strongly volatile under cost support, while ethylene glycol is expected to be weakly volatile under high - inventory pressure after the festival, but its supply - demand pattern may improve in March [4]. - For rubber, due to the firm raw material price in the low - production season and the increasing concern about production, the rubber price is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - For methanol, affected by the gas restriction in Iran, the import volume is expected to gradually decline. The MTO device load in the Yangtze River Delta region is not high currently but is expected to recover after the Spring Festival. The subsequent port will enter the de - stocking stage, but the continued tension in the US - Iran situation will cause the methanol price to fluctuate significantly [6]. - For polyolefins, the post - festival demand recovery is slow, and due to the pre - festival downstream restocking, the short - term market trading activity is not high, and there is a certain pressure for further upward movement [6]. - For polyvinyl chloride, the post - festival supply maintains a slow - increasing trend, and the downstream demand support is limited. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level fluctuation [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Closing Price and Change on Thursday | Key Information | View | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Crude Oil | WTI April contract closed down $0.21 to $65.21/barrel, a decrease of 0.32%; Brent April contract closed down $0.1 to $70.75/barrel, a decrease of 0.14%; SC2604 closed at 489.8 yuan/barrel, up 3.6 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.74% | US - Iran nuclear negotiations are ongoing, and the cost of chartering super - large oil tankers from the Middle East to China has exceeded $200,000 per day for the first time since 2020 | Volatility [1] | | Fuel Oil | FU2605 closed down 0.34% at 2943 yuan/ton; LU2605 closed down 1.18% at 3436 yuan/ton | Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 0.5%, and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventory decreased by 6.22%. The supply of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil has changed | Volatility [2] | | Asphalt | BU2604 closed down 0.5% at 3358 yuan/ton | The supply in the north is low, and refineries are accumulating inventory. The production of main refineries in the south is intermittent | Volatility [2] | | Polyester | TA605 closed down 0.98% at 5260 yuan/ton; EG2605 closed down 1.25% at 3700 yuan/ton; PX605 closed down 0.67% at 7382 yuan/ton | An ethylene glycol device is expected to restart, and the downstream recovery time is around the Lantern Festival | Volatility [4] | | Rubber | RU2605 fell 115 yuan/ton to 17125 yuan/ton; NR fell 125 yuan/ton to 13855 yuan/ton; BR fell 345 yuan/ton to 12700 yuan/ton | Vietnam's natural rubber exports in January increased by 5% year - on - year, but exports to China decreased by 42% year - on - year. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises has increased | Volatility [4][6] | | Methanol | The spot price in Taicang is 2197 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia is 1830 yuan/ton | Affected by the gas restriction in Iran, the import volume is expected to decline, and the MTO device load in the Yangtze River Delta region is expected to recover after the Spring Festival | Volatility [6] | | Polyolefins | The mainstream price of East China wire drawing is 6600 - 6700 yuan/ton | The post - festival demand recovery is slow, and the downstream restocked in advance | Volatility [6] | | Polyvinyl Chloride | The price in the East China market is stable, and the price in the South China market has increased | The post - festival supply is slowly increasing, and the downstream demand has been overdrawn | Volatility [7] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on February 26, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US and Iran ended the third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva, and the mediation party Oman said that the talks had made progress. Iran refused to transfer its enriched uranium abroad and demanded that the US lift sanctions [10]. - The EU sanctions envoy said that the EU needs to coordinate its plan to impose a comprehensive maritime service ban on Russia's seaborne crude oil exports with other G7 countries [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][14][16][18][22] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [27][28][30][32] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [33][35][39][41][43][45] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [48][50][51][55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE, PP, etc. [59] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won many awards [62]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won many awards [63]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [64]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2180 - 2300 in the short term [7] - This week, the port methanol market mainly declined, and the inland methanol price continued to fall. The market sentiment was weak due to pre - holiday inventory clearance and a weak macro - environment. As the de - stocking nears the end, market trading has become light, and downstream buyers are on the sidelines [8] - Recently, the production capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production, leading to an overall increase in production. Before the long holiday, upstream factories continue to clear inventory/pre - sell, and downstream buyers stock up steadily before the festival. Inland enterprise inventories continue to decline. Port inventories in the Yangtze River Delta decreased this week, while those in South China increased. In the short term, the arrival of foreign vessels is expected to increase, and port inventories may accumulate [8] - This week, the operating rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins increased. After the restart of the Ningbo Fude plant, its load increased, and the Shandong Hengtong and Qinghai Salt Lake plants restarted during the week. In the short term, as the loads of previously restarted olefin plants gradually increase, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2180 - 2300 range in the short term [7] - Market review: This week, the port methanol market declined. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2180 - 2300 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2200 - 2280 yuan/ton. Inland prices continued to fall, with the price in Erdos in the north line fluctuating between 1785 - 1798 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying between 2145 - 2160 yuan/ton. Enterprises focused on inventory clearance before the holiday, and the market sentiment was weak [8] - Market outlook: Domestic methanol production is increasing. Inland inventories are decreasing, while port inventories may accumulate. The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 3.28% [12] - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 6, the MA 5 - 9 spread was - 29 [16] - Position analysis: As of February 6, there were 7082 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 71 from last week [24] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic prices: As of February 5, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1797.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 407.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77.5 yuan/ton from last week [30] - Foreign prices: As of February 5, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 262 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 61 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton from last week [36] - Basis: As of February 5, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [40] 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of February 4, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of February 5, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.52 US dollars per million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.35 US dollars per million British thermal units from last week [44] 3.5 Industry Situation - Production and operating rate: As of February 4, China's methanol production was 2,061,085 tons, an increase of 23,350 tons from last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 92.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15% [47] - Inventory: As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 368,300 tons, a decrease of 55,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 13.16%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 287,100 tons, an increase of 21,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.05%. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 1.411 million tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 64,800 tons, and that in South China increased by 3,700 tons [51] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of February 5, the methanol import profit was - 17.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [56] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Operating rate: As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 83.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.86%. After the restart of the Ningbo Fude plant, its load increased, and the Shandong Hengtong and Qinghai Salt Lake plants restarted during the week, leading to an increase in the operating rate [59] - Profit: As of February 6, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week [62]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - SC night session dropped 4.8%. With the easing of tensions between the US and Iran, European and American crude oil futures fell from multi - month highs. The strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and warmer climate also dampened the oil market sentiment. The situation in Venezuela has also eased. As of the week ending January 16, the average daily US crude oil production was 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 255,000 barrels from the same period last year [3] - Methanol night session dropped 1.18%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.06%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points month - on - month. As of January 29, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 1.43 million tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from January 22, a decline of 0.33%, and a year - on - year increase of 42.43%. The estimated import volume of methanol from January 30 to February 15 is 593,000 - 600,000 tons. As of January 29, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 77.56%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.75 percentage points [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For SC crude oil, the previous day's closing prices of near - month and next - month contracts were 449.0 and 450.2 respectively, with price drops of - 16.6 and - 20.6 and declines of - 3.57% and - 4.38%. For WTI, the previous day's closing prices of near - month and next - month contracts were 65.51 and 65.03, with price increases of 2.01 and 1.89 and increases of 3.17% and 2.99%. For Brent, the previous day's closing prices of near - month and next - month contracts were 68.74 and 67.69, with price increases of 1.04 and 0.93 and increases of 1.54% and 1.39%. The trading volumes of SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month were 197,282, 89,777, 329,531, 164,734, 167,809, and 497,112 respectively. The positions were 36,200, 29,903, 368,969, 187,862, 242,672, and 673,322 respectively, with position changes of 36,058, - 14,214, 4,711, 4,219, - 63,201, and - 16,797 respectively [2] - **Spread Information**: The current spreads of SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, SC near - month - Brent near - month, WTI near - month - Brent near - month, and WTI near - month - Brent next - month were - 1.2, 450.2, - 5.7, - 28.1, 3.34, and 1.05 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 5.2, 180.8, 24.9, - 4.3, 2.50, and 0.94 [2] Spot Market - **International Market**: The current prices of OPEC basket crude oil, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, Oman, Dubai, and Cinta were 67.03, 73.03, 65.21, 67.04, 66.62, and 62.30 respectively, compared with the previous values of 67.00, 72.57, 65.42, 66.67, 66.61, and 62.41 [2] - **Domestic Market**: The current prices of Daqing, Shengli, Chinese gasoline wholesale price index, Chinese diesel wholesale price index, FOB naphtha (Singapore), and ex - factory price of aviation kerosene were 66.10, 65.00, 7,423, 6,133, 63.85, and 5,334 respectively, compared with the previous values of 66.00, 64.70, 7,374, 6,095, 63.79, and 5,574 [2]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly data report on the energy and chemical sector, including the polyester and methanol segments, released by New Era Futures Research on November 7, 2025 [1][2][4][30] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the PX supply pressure is not significant, the PTA supply is expected to tighten, and their盘面 performance is relatively strong, but the demand - side drive is insufficient, limiting the rebound space. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase slightly, and with rigid demand, it has insufficient rebound momentum and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the demand drive is insufficient, and supply changes dominate the market rhythm. In the fourth quarter, the polyester sector shows a differentiated trend, with PX and PTA being relatively strong and ethylene glycol being under pressure. For methanol, in the short - term, the high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, MTO is continuously losing money, and the main demand support weakens, so it may fluctuate in the bottom range. In the long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point, and if the medium - and long - term signals are positive, methanol has the basis for a stable rebound [28][47] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price (OSP) for Asian customers in December, indicating a cautious attitude towards the crude oil demand outlook. OPEC+ will maintain the production increase rhythm in December but suspend the increase plan in the first three months of 2026. The US sanctions on Russian oil companies have led to a significant reduction in Russia's crude oil exports to India. US commercial crude oil inventories increased due to a large increase in imports, while gasoline inventories continued to decline [5][6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.34% week - on - week, while naphtha spot prices increased by 0.54%. PX601 futures prices increased by 6.96%, and PX CFR in Taiwan increased by 1.19%. TA601 futures prices increased by 2.58%, and PTA spot benchmark prices increased by 0.22%. EG601 futures prices decreased by 2.68%, and ethylene glycol's East China mainstream price decreased by 4.03%. PF512 futures prices increased by 1.12%, and polyester staple fiber's East China mainstream price decreased by 0.55%. PR601 futures prices increased by 0.75%, and polyester bottle chip's East China mainstream price increased by 0.17% [9] 3.3 Supply - side Analysis 3.3.1 PX - Dalian Fujia's 70 - ton device restarted and ran at full capacity, and another 70 - ton device is planned to restart next week. As of November 7, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.03%, a 1.25% increase from last week, and the PX output was 74.67 tons, a 1.25% increase [13] 3.3.2 PTA - Dongying Weilian reduced its load, Yisheng Dahua increased its load after reduction, Dushan Energy's old 250 - ton device was under maintenance after the new 300 - ton device was put into production, and Xinjiang Zhongtai's 120 - ton device restarted. As of November 7, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 77.69%, a 0.69 - percentage - point decrease from last week, and the weekly output was 148.483 tons, a 3.45 - ton increase. PTA social inventory increased slightly. Under low processing fees, large PTA manufacturers have maintenance expectations, but the implementation needs attention [14] 3.3.3 Ethylene Glycol - Fujian United restarted, Sanjiang Chemical increased its load, and some devices were under maintenance. As of November 7, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 65.88%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase. Coal - based devices are planned to restart, and the domestic supply is expected to increase slightly. Port inventory increased, but the inventory accumulation rhythm may slow down [15][16] 3.3.4 Methanol - As of November 6, the methanol production start - up rate was 87.79%, a 1.18 - percentage - point increase, and the domestic output was 199.2 tons, a 1.37% increase. This week, the total restored production capacity was about 2.91 million tons/year, and the total lost production capacity was about 2 million tons/year. Next week, the planned restored production capacity is about 1.6 million tons/year, with no new maintenance plans [39][40] 3.4 Demand - side Analysis 3.4.1 Polyester - The weekly average start - up rate of the polyester end was 87.8%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase. Polyester staple fiber and filament inventories decreased slightly. New device production was postponed, and large - scale maintenance was postponed. Next week, polyester device changes are limited, and production is expected to increase slightly. Weaving orders decreased, and procurement was mainly rigid [17][20] 3.4.2 Methanol - The MTO start - up rate continued to decline, and Shandong Hengtong entered maintenance. Traditional downstream industries entered the off - season, and the overall start - up rate decreased, with weak demand support [43] 3.5 Inventory Analysis 3.5.1 PTA - As of November 6, PTA factory inventory was available for 4.09 days (a 0.06 - day increase), polyester factory PTA inventory was 6.10 days (a 0.35 - day decrease), and PTA social inventory was about 316.08 tons (a 2.53 - ton increase) [14] 3.5.2 Ethylene Glycol - As of November 6, the East China port inventory was 56.4 tons, a 6.5 - ton increase from last Thursday and a 5.3 - ton increase from Monday [16] 3.5.3 Methanol - As of November 5, the port inventory was 151.71 tons, a 1.06 - ton increase, and the inland inventory was 38.64 tons, a 1.03 - ton increase. The port inventory increased slightly due to the unmet unloading expectations, and the inland inventory continued to increase due to high supply and reverse flow of port goods [46] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations 3.6.1 Polyester Sector - Short - term: PX supply pressure is not significant, PTA supply is expected to tighten, and the disk is relatively strong, but the demand - side drive is insufficient, and the rebound space is limited. Ethylene glycol may fluctuate at a low level. Long - term: The demand drive is insufficient, and the supply change dominates the market rhythm. PX and PTA are relatively strong, and ethylene glycol is under pressure [28] 3.6.2 Methanol - Short - term: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, MTO is continuously losing money, and methanol may fluctuate in the bottom range. Long - term: Focus on the port inventory inflection point and the import reduction caused by Iran's gas restriction. If the long - term signal is positive, methanol has the basis for a stable rebound [47] 3.7 Next Week's Concerns - For the polyester sector, concerns include the change in the Russia - Ukraine situation, macro - market sentiment, and the operation of upstream and downstream devices. For methanol, concerns include high - inventory pressure, the recovery of maintenance devices, and macro - market sentiment [29][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall risk preference in the crude oil market has improved, and oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors on oil prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.33 to $60.48 per barrel (0.55% increase), Brent December contract rose $0.52 to $64.92 per barrel (0.81% increase), and SC2512 closed at 465.1 yuan per barrel, up 5.9 yuan (1.28% increase). EIA inventory data showed a comprehensive decline in inventories. Mexican national oil company's production decreased year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate - cut path is uncertain. The market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The Asian low - sulfur market structure weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable. FU and LU absolute prices will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. In November, the refinery's asphalt production plan decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory levels all decreased. The supply pressure will ease, and there is still a rush - work expectation in some markets. The BU absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester improved, and the fundamentals of TA improved. However, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter, and its price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber contract fell. The social inventory of natural rubber decreased. Due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and good demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic overhauled devices are gradually resuming production, and the overseas Iranian devices will be restricted by winter gas curtailment. The short - term port supply is still abundant, and methanol prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and prices are expected to enter a fluctuating stage [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China were reported. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on October 29 and 28, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. It also shows the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - US EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories last week exceeded analysts' expectations, forcing the market to re - evaluate the expectation of a large surplus in the oil market [11] - Trump predicted that his talks with Chinese leaders would yield good results. The talks are scheduled for Thursday at a summit in South Korea. The positive news about the Sino - US talks and the US - South Korea trade agreement eased investors' concerns about the economic recession caused by Trump's tariffs and trade wars [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as the spread between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts of fuel oil, and the spread between the main and sub - main contracts of asphalt [39] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It provides the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP from 2018 to 2025 [63] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [67] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [68] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis and research on related varieties [69] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the average price of the port methanol market strengthened, while the inland methanol market declined weakly. The domestic methanol production decreased slightly, and the enterprise inventory increased. The port inventory decreased overall, but there is still a possibility of an increase in October. The olefin industry's operating rate remained high, and the MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2250 - 2340 range [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the average price of the port methanol market strengthened, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2200 - 2340 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2210 - 2310 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market declined weakly, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2083 - 2078 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2290 - 2300 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production decreased slightly due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than recoveries. The enterprise inventory increased due to weak downstream demand and low logistics enthusiasm. The port inventory decreased overall, but there is a possibility of an increase in October due to sufficient import expectations. The olefin industry's operating rate remained high and is expected to continue so in the short term [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2250 - 2340 range [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed lower, with a -1.52% decline in the main contract price [10]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of October 17, the MA 1 - 5 spread was -18 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific information on the trend of net long positions of the top 20 is provided. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 16, there were 11282 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 100 from last week [24]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of October 17, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2280 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2052.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 227.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.5 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of October 16, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 264 dollars/ton, an increase of 12 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 61 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton from last week [33]. - **Basis**: As of October 17, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of October 15, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of October 16, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.93 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.32 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41]. - **Industry**: As of October 16, China's methanol production was 1983655 tons, a decrease of 47850 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a decrease of 2.36% month - on - month. As of October 15, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 35.99 million tons, an increase of 2.05 million tons from the previous period, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 22.89 million tons, an increase of 11.37 million tons from the previous period. The total port inventory was 149.14 million tons, a decrease of 5.18 million tons from the previous data. In August 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.7598 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59.59%; from January to August, the cumulative imports were 8.2398 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.52%. As of October 16, the methanol import profit was 21.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week [46][50][55]. - **Downstream**: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 94.21%, a decrease of 0.01% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was -1065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton from last week [58][61].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 2375.00 yuan/ton, a minor decrease of 0.46% [1] Macro Factors - The U.S. and Europe plan to strengthen sanctions against Russia, and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of easing [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is relatively high [1] Supply and Production - Recent analysis indicates that domestic methanol production capacity is recovering, with output increasing more than the capacity lost due to maintenance and production cuts [1] - Inventory levels at domestic enterprises have decreased due to increased procurement by some olefin companies in Inner Mongolia [1] Demand Indicators - Northwest methanol enterprises signed contracts for 89,800 tons, an increase of 14,400 tons compared to the previous period [1] - Sample enterprises have 250,700 tons of orders pending shipment, up by 9,400 tons, reflecting a 3.91% increase [1] - Olefin operating rate is at 82.6%, down 3.1%; dimethyl ether at 4.8%, unchanged; methylene chloride at 85.6%, down 0.2%; acetic acid at 83.1%, down 1.1%; formaldehyde at 43.1%, up 5.4%; and MTBE at 61.6%, down 0.5% [1] Market Outlook - Domestic methanol production remains high, with stable downstream demand expected [1] - Anticipated high import volumes for September and continued accumulation of methanol port inventories [1] - The domestic methanol market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with a short-term support level around 2395 yuan/ton, and a recommendation to observe the market [1]