Group 1 - The livestock ETF (159865) rose over 1.2%, with institutions indicating that the accelerated reduction in pig production capacity may support sector expectations [1] - Guosen Securities predicts an imminent reversal in the livestock cycle, optimistic about the domestic meat and dairy sectors experiencing a synchronous upward trend, with livestock companies likely to see high elasticity recovery in performance [1] - Domestic beef production capacity reduction may reach levels comparable to the 2019 pig cycle, with a price turning point expected in 2025, potentially leading to continuous price increases until 2028 [1] Group 2 - Domestic raw milk prices have declined for nearly four years, leading to continuous losses and production capacity exit pressure, while the meat-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, likely accelerating the elimination of dairy cows and achieving "meat and milk resonance" [1] - In pig farming, leading enterprises are experiencing rapid cash flow improvement and are expected to transform into profitable entities, with cost advantages becoming more pronounced amid industry-wide capacity contraction [1] - In poultry farming, supply fluctuations are limited, and market conditions are expected to improve with demand recovery, allowing leading companies to achieve higher cash flow dividend returns due to excess unit returns [1] Group 3 - The feed industry benefits from the deepening industrialization of livestock and poultry farming, with clear industry division of labor, and leading feed companies are expected to further enhance competitive advantages through technology and service [1] - The pet sector is emerging as a high-quality consumption track benefiting from long-term demographic trends, with domestic brands rapidly rising, and leading pet food companies showing strong mid-term performance growth certainty [1] Group 4 - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and veterinary drug production to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [2] - The constituent stocks cover the entire livestock industry chain, demonstrating strong industry representativeness [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a reasonable valuation range of HKD 4.39 to 4.73, indicating a potential upside of approximately 35-45% from the current stock price of HKD 3.50 [6][3]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the upward trend in both meat and milk prices, with expectations of significant profit recovery in the coming years. The original milk segment is projected to see profit increases of approximately HKD 14 billion and HKD 20 billion in 2026 and 2027, respectively, compared to 2024 [3][2]. - The report highlights the company's comprehensive business model, which includes breeding, feed, and large-scale dairy farming, making it a leader in the global raw milk supply chain [1][17]. Company Overview - The company, controlled by Yili Group, operates 97 large-scale farms across China's prime dairy regions, with a dairy cow inventory exceeding 600,000 heads and an expected raw milk production of around 3.7 million tons in 2024, ranking first globally [1][17]. - It is also the largest supplier of ruminant feed and alfalfa in China, with its subsidiary, Saikexing, being the largest dairy cattle breeding company in the country [1][17]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a turning point in the beef cycle in 2025, with domestic beef prices expected to rise until 2027 due to supply adjustments and increased demand [2][48]. - The domestic raw milk market has faced price declines for nearly four years, but the report suggests that the current high meat-to-milk price ratio may accelerate the culling of dairy cows, leading to a recovery in raw milk prices by 2025 [2][48]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 6.7 billion, HKD 22.9 billion, and HKD 33.5 billion from 2025 to 2027, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be HKD 0.17, HKD 0.59, and HKD 0.86, respectively [3][5]. - The report indicates that the company's revenue is expected to grow from HKD 20.1 billion in 2024 to HKD 24.8 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% [5][3].