2025年上半年，优然牧业以一份亮眼"答卷"强势破局，在行业复苏关键期，再度展现出乳业上游领军企 业的进取姿态与跨越式增长潜力。 8月22日，优然牧业(09858.HK)发布2025年中期业绩公告，实现营业收入102.84亿元，同比增长2.3%， 营收规模持续增长，领跑行业。随着各项降本增效措施的全面落实，当期综合毛利率提升1.7个百分点 至30%；剔除生物资产公平值变动影响，优然牧业期内溢利19.85亿元，同比增长10.1%；现金EBITDA 达到28.11亿元，同比增长7.1%；自由现金流较去年同期增加7亿元，体现出公司的经营质量和资金管理 效率显著提升。 在行业整体复苏背景下，优然牧业凭借全产业链协同优势，叠加科技赋能与管理优化，持续释放降本增 效成果，推动营收规模、盈利能力与现金流等核心指标全面向好，在行业复苏曲线上跑出"加速度"，成 为乳业上游的确定性力量。 科技赋能全链降本增效 年化单产提升至13.1吨 原料奶作为乳业上游核心资源，是优然牧业业务布局的"基本盘"。近年来，公司通过持续推进数字化转 型与精细化管理优化生产模式，在原料奶业务上实现结构优化、生产效率提升与成本控制的三重改善。 不依赖牛群 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the innovative approach of utilizing saline-alkali land for large-scale cultivation of alfalfa, which has significant benefits for both local agriculture and the economy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhiyuan Baicao (Yancheng) Agricultural Technology Development Co., Ltd. is leading the initiative to cultivate alfalfa on saline-alkali land, which was previously underutilized [1][2]. - The company aims to reduce reliance on imported alfalfa by developing local cultivation methods, thereby enhancing the quality of livestock products [2][3]. Group 2: Agricultural Innovation - The project utilizes the salt-tolerant characteristics of alfalfa to improve saline-alkali land, which is a significant agricultural challenge in Yancheng [2][3]. - The company has developed a multi-species planting model for salt-tolerant forage through collaboration with agricultural research institutions, demonstrating effective agricultural innovation [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The project has achieved an impressive yield of 5 tons of forage per acre, generating over 10 million yuan in sales within the first half of the year [3]. - The expansion plan includes increasing the cultivation area from 5,000 acres to 8,000 acres, which is expected to boost local livestock income by over 100 million yuan annually [3].

Group 1 - The event "2025 Inner Mongolia Private Enterprises Top 100 Release Conference" was held, highlighting the achievements of private enterprises in the region [1][3] - Youran Dairy ranked 11th in the "2025 Inner Mongolia Private Enterprises Top 100" list with a revenue of 20.978 billion yuan, and it was the second-ranked private enterprise in Hohhot [1][2] - Youran Dairy was also included in the "2025 Inner Mongolia Top 30 Innovative Private Enterprises" list, showcasing its commitment to innovation [1][4] Group 2 - Dairy industry is a pillar industry in Inner Mongolia, with significant government support and policies aimed at revitalizing the sector [5] - Youran Dairy has become a major player, recognized as the largest raw milk supplier globally and the largest ruminant feed supplier in China [5] - The company has implemented a dual strategy of "technology empowerment and lean management," leading to advancements such as the fully automated "unmanned cattle shed" [6] Group 3 - Youran Dairy has achieved a record high milk yield per cow, with an average of 49 kg, setting a national record [6] - The company has developed proprietary breeding technology, producing high-index breeding bulls, thus enhancing the genetic quality of dairy cattle in China [6] - Youran Dairy's feed products have been exported to Mongolia, contributing to the modernization of local livestock farming [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a reasonable valuation range of HKD 4.39 to 4.73, indicating a potential upside of approximately 35-45% from the current stock price of HKD 3.50 [6][3]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the upward trend in both meat and milk prices, with expectations of significant profit recovery in the coming years. The original milk segment is projected to see profit increases of approximately HKD 14 billion and HKD 20 billion in 2026 and 2027, respectively, compared to 2024 [3][2]. - The report highlights the company's comprehensive business model, which includes breeding, feed, and large-scale dairy farming, making it a leader in the global raw milk supply chain [1][17]. Company Overview - The company, controlled by Yili Group, operates 97 large-scale farms across China's prime dairy regions, with a dairy cow inventory exceeding 600,000 heads and an expected raw milk production of around 3.7 million tons in 2024, ranking first globally [1][17]. - It is also the largest supplier of ruminant feed and alfalfa in China, with its subsidiary, Saikexing, being the largest dairy cattle breeding company in the country [1][17]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a turning point in the beef cycle in 2025, with domestic beef prices expected to rise until 2027 due to supply adjustments and increased demand [2][48]. - The domestic raw milk market has faced price declines for nearly four years, but the report suggests that the current high meat-to-milk price ratio may accelerate the culling of dairy cows, leading to a recovery in raw milk prices by 2025 [2][48]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 6.7 billion, HKD 22.9 billion, and HKD 33.5 billion from 2025 to 2027, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be HKD 0.17, HKD 0.59, and HKD 0.86, respectively [3][5]. - The report indicates that the company's revenue is expected to grow from HKD 20.1 billion in 2024 to HKD 24.8 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% [5][3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rural revitalization and agricultural development in China, highlighting efforts to enhance productivity, improve living standards, and promote sustainable practices in various regions [7]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - Inner Mongolia's Alukerqin Banner is focusing on alfalfa cultivation, showcasing advancements in agricultural technology and practices [1]. - Hubei's Yunxi County is actively developing a cultural tourism industry chain, integrating agriculture with cultural and tourism sectors [3]. - Qinghai's Delingha City is utilizing collective land to develop a comprehensive rural economy, contributing to local income growth [5]. Group 2: Rural Revitalization - The article discusses the significant role of agriculture in providing employment for nearly 200 million people and housing for around 500 million farmers, underlining the sector's contribution to national food security [7]. - There is a concerted effort across various regions to enhance crop yields and quality, with a focus on local conditions to develop specialty industries [7]. - The "Light and Shadow China" photography team is documenting successful rural practices and resource utilization in regions like Inner Mongolia and Liaoning, showcasing progress in building livable and prosperous rural communities [7][8].