Core Viewpoint - DBS has a positive outlook on HSBC Holdings, projecting a return on equity of approximately 16% for the fiscal years 2026-2027, despite a decline from the high base of fiscal year 2025 [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - DBS has raised its earnings forecasts for HSBC for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 2% and 7% respectively [2] - The net interest income forecast for HSBC from 2025 to 2027 has been increased to over $43 billion [2] - The headwinds facing net interest income in fiscal year 2026 are expected to be smaller than last year due to a reduced rate of interest cuts in the US and a recovery in Hong Kong interbank offered rates since the historical lows in Q2 2025 [2] Group 2: Dividend and Return Projections - Expected dividend yields for HSBC from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 5.2 cents, 5.6 cents, and 6.3 cents respectively [2] - Average return on equity for shareholders is anticipated to be 12.6%, 15.3%, and 16.1% for the years 2025 to 2027 [2] Group 3: Factors Supporting Growth - The decline in net interest income is expected to be offset by structural hedges and favorable factors such as reduced funding costs [1] - Non-interest income is anticipated to maintain strong growth momentum, with expectations of a robust Hong Kong capital market in fiscal year 2026 [1] - Credit costs are expected to remain manageable, as there are no significant signs of deterioration in credit risk within Hong Kong's commercial real estate sector [1]

Group 1 - AI has been a key driver of market performance, corporate earnings, and individual stock performance, with expectations for this trend to continue until 2026 [1] - In the Chinese market, there has been an improvement in shareholder equity returns, with AI model performance steadily increasing and R&D investment being a fraction of that in the U.S., suggesting better products and services at lower prices for consumers and businesses [1] - After years of volatility, the Chinese stock market is beginning to show positive earnings growth, with a strong correlation between stock market trends and earnings performance in the long term [1] Group 2 - Globalization is shifting towards regional influences, leading to more differentiated trends in key areas such as inflation [2] - By 2026, it is expected that central banks will likely adopt supportive policies, with a relatively loose fiscal environment in the U.S. and other regions, contributing to a more optimistic market outlook despite some high valuations [2] - Corporate earnings are anticipated to be strong in 2026, supported by policy measures and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which may lead to relatively positive returns [2]