债券市场多空因素交织，震荡加剧，与2024年单边牛市显著不同，也让债券投资者今年收益率明显不如 预期。统计数据显示，截至2025年9月9日，中证综合债指数(全部债券)今年以来累计收益率仅为 0.45%。这个收益率水平让债券基金经理尤其纯债基金经理压力颇大，短久期策略成为越来越多基金经 理配置的主流。 中泰证券（600918）固收首席分析师吕品认为，债券已经是"弱势资产"，建议以"弱势思维"来对待。而 股强债弱的本质，源于机构对股债进行再平衡配置的诉求，这一诉求决定了资金在两类资产上的偏好。 "低基数和反内卷政策共同支撑PPI同比降幅收窄。"财信研究院伍超明团队认为，受益于相关行业"反内 卷"行动开启，煤炭开采和洗选业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、黑色金属采选业价格环比均由负转 正，对PPI增速回升形成主要支撑。 其实，6月底以来债市震荡走弱，进入8月份之后更是显著下跌。与过去的债券市场调整不同的地方在 于，此次债市调整的主要原因是股票市场持续上涨带来的风险偏好提升，以及"反内卷"政策带来通胀预 期的升温。 9月10日，国债期货创下近6个月新低，且长期债券价格出现较为明显的回撤。其中，30年期主力合约报 114. ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant rise in gold prices driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts, concerns over debt, and worries regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve due to political pressures [2][15][16] - The market is currently pricing in a high likelihood of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, with estimates suggesting 3-4 cuts totaling 75-100 basis points [2][15] - Concerns about fiscal discipline in developed countries, particularly with upcoming long-term bond issuances, have led to increased demand for gold as a "credit benchmark" [2][15][16] Group 2 - The report indicates that the domestic market may not experience the expected benefits from overseas interest rate cuts, as previous patterns of capital inflow have not been evident [25][26][29] - The divergence in monetary policy between domestic and overseas markets has persisted for nearly three years, suggesting that domestic interest rates may not follow the trend of international cuts [29][30] - The report notes that the current market environment may accelerate the reallocation of assets from bonds to equities, potentially putting further pressure on the bond market [31][35] Group 3 - The bond market has shown signs of weakness, with a notable "double kill" scenario where both stocks and bonds declined simultaneously, indicating fragile market sentiment [4][33] - Despite a brief recovery in the bond market, the overall performance remains lackluster compared to equities, which have shown resilience after recent corrections [5][32][35] - The report suggests adopting a "weak asset" mindset towards bonds, focusing on minimizing losses and seeking short-term trading opportunities rather than expecting sustained upward trends [6][36]