面对高估值，华尔街正形成新的共识，认为应抛弃传统的市盈率认知。分析师指出，标普500指数的估值中枢已结构性上移，是由于美国经济衰退减少、 向技术或服务业转型、利润稳定性提高等多重因素支撑。当前高估值视或为"新常态"，而非期待其回归"逝去的时代"。 越来越多华尔街分析师建议，投资者或许应该抛开对传统市盈率的固有认知。美国银行的策略师上周就表达了类似观点， 认为应将当前的高估值视 为"新常态"，而非期待其均值回归到"逝去的时代"。 分析师指出，标普500指数的估值中枢已结构性上移，是由于美国经济衰退减少、向技术或服务业 转型、利润稳定性提高等多重因素支撑。 这呼应了资深华尔街策略师Jim Paulsen近期的分析。Paulsen的分析显示， 标普500指数的估值中枢在过去几十年持续上移，他认为这削弱了将当前人 工智能狂潮与上世纪90年代末互联网泡沫直接类比的悲观论调。 这一转变引出了两个核心问题：投资者应如何判断一个持续移动的估值目标？它是否会继续以相似的速度进入"未知领域"？这场关于估值范式的辩论， 正深刻影响着投资者对未来市场回报的预期。 估值中枢的结构性上移 数据显示，美国股市的估值范围在本世纪已发生显著飞 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting perception of stock market valuations, suggesting that high valuations should be viewed as a "new normal" rather than a temporary anomaly, driven by structural changes in the economy and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Structural Changes in Valuation - The S&P 500 index's rolling average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has increased from approximately 14 times in the early 1990s to about 19.5 times today, indicating a significant upward shift in valuation norms [2]. - The frequency of economic recessions in the U.S. has decreased from about 42% historically to around 10% in the past 30 years, contributing to a more stable economic environment that supports higher valuations [2]. - The U.S. economy has transitioned from an industrial base to one dominated by technology and services, which tends to favor growth stocks that can sustain higher valuations [2]. Group 2: Support for High Valuations - Analysts from Bank of America argue that the intrinsic characteristics of current S&P 500 constituents, such as lower financial leverage and more stable profit margins, justify the elevated valuation multiples [3]. - The current index composition shows significant changes compared to the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s, suggesting that today's valuation multiples should be considered as a new benchmark rather than reverting to historical averages [3]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on Valuation Trends - Some analysts, like Jonathan Golub from Seaport Research Partners, propose a more cautious view, suggesting that the market is not in a state of continuous upward valuation drift but rather "re-anchoring" at a higher level [4]. - Golub notes that high interest rates in the 1970s and 1980s contributed to lower valuations, and if borrowing costs were to rise significantly again, valuations could revert to historical averages, although he currently sees no such risk [4].