（原标题：和讯投顾王鹤磊：存款利息下行，高股息股来拯救） 最近一段时间，银行存款利率不断下降，目前已经降至1%多左右。对于那些偏向于追求稳健投资的人 来说，他们可能会寻找其他投资品类。在A股市场中，有一个投资品类，我认为在未来大概率可以替代 银行定期存款。虽然它的风险比银行定期存款稍高一些，但相较于银行定期存款的收益，也会更高一 些。这个投资品类就是高股息股的投资组合。 第四步，就是要选对行业。我们要选的行业最好是内需型行业。什么是内需型行业呢？公用事业是内需 型行业，必选消费也是内需型行业。国有银行、能源运输这几个行业是必不可少的，并且国资控股较 多。这些行业里的那些分红较好的公司才是真正稳健的公司。 通过以上所说的这些内容，你可以在同花顺的爱问财或者是通达信的问小答中找到对应的公司。或者作 为一个老股民，你可能自己就能挑选到类似的公司。记住，我们持有这些股票是为了获得长期稳健的股 息，是为了替代银行定期存款，而不是为了赚取短期的涨停板。这种操作思路适合于那些偏向于稳健的 投资者，并且资金不是经常挪出来使用的投资者。 高股息股为什么能够吊打存款利率呢？主要原因在于，最近一段时间，我国提倡股票市场要优质良性发 ...

We last analyzed Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK ) stock on May 22 in an article titled “Merck & Co. Stock: Inventory Doesn't Lie.” The article focused on the demand inAs you can tell, our core style is to provide actionable and unambiguous ideas from our independent research. If your share this investment style, check out Envision Early Retirement. It provides at least 1x in-depth articles per week on such ideas.We have helped our members not only to beat S&P 500 but also avoid heavy drawdowns despite the ext ...

7月10日，银行股带领上证指数再次突破3500点，其中工商银行（601398.SH）上涨2.93%，建设 银行（601939.SH）上升0.51%，盘中一度创出历史新高。 业内人士认为，经济复苏预期增强缓解了对银行资产质量担忧，在低利率环境下，银行息差下降幅度 并不多，而长期资金入市则推动了股价上涨，展望未来行情，预计其他高股息股票将会有一定的轮动 效应。 港股100研究中心顾问余丰慧向第一财经记者表示，当前银行股行情的上涨主要受到多重因素驱动， 即便在业绩负增长的大背景下，仍有其独特的基本面支撑。首先，随着经济复苏预期的增强，市场对 银行业资产质量的担忧有所缓解，不良贷款率有望得到控制甚至下降。其次，"国家队"流动性支持 以及中长期资金如保险资金的持续流入，为银行股提供了强有力的资金面支撑。此外，公募基金改革 带来的银行仓位配置增加，也推动了股价上行。 余丰慧认为，其他高股息股票方面的轮动机会存在一定的吸引力。在低利率环境下，投资者倾向于寻 找稳定的现金流来源，高股息股票因此成为理想选择。银行股因其相对较高的股息收益率，在这一趋 势中占据有利位置。不过，随着更多资金追逐这类资产，其他同样具有稳健分红记录且估 ...

编者按：6月29日，摩根大通发布中国股票策略报告《2H25 outlook: downside risks & upside optionality》，提出2025 年展望的最新观点：摩根士丹利中国 指数（MXCN）近期将在 70-80 区间震荡，2025 年下半年存在上行空间。摩根大通预测到 2025 年底，MXCN / 沪深 300 指数将分别达到 80 / 4,150 （较上 周五收盘价分别上涨 5.1%/5.8%）；在乐观情景下，将达到 89 / 4,420 （较上周五收盘价分别上涨 16.8%/12.7%）。如需更多参考资料，请底部私信留言。 夏季季节性疲弱、关税对 2025 年第二季度业绩的不确定影响、美中谈判的波动性，以及根据摩根大通中国宏观预测，2025 年第二季度 GDP 增速可能优 于共识预期，因此预计 7 月下旬不会出台额外刺激政策。 展望 2025 年下半年，摩根大通认为以下因素将推动上行：南下资金持续强劲流入香港市场、美中贸易在一定程度上达成解决方案，以及金融市场开放可 能改善宏观叙事，并随着美联储降息提振 2026 年前景。 摩根大通将 MXCN 与东证指数（Topix）进行对比， ...

业内人士表示，从长期投资视角来看，稳定且高额的股息收入能够为险资提供持续的资金流入，有助于 保险资金的长期稳健运作，更好地匹配保险业务的赔付需求和资金运用计划。对于追求稳定现金流的长 期个人投资者来说，各种思路也可以作为参考。不过，对于个人投资者来说，为了尽量分散风险，可以 考虑指数投资工具，通过诸如H股银行含量最高的ETF——港股通金融ETF或行业相对均衡的港股央企 红利ETF（513910）来实现类似效果。 为何险资喜欢买这些资产呢？业内人士分析认为，险资很可能是为了响应长期资金入市的政策、适应会 计准则切换下的资产负债管理，从而增加权益资产配置。而银行因为行业相对成熟、经营效率高等原 因，往往是分红主力军。险资在权益投资方面一大重点方向便是增配并长期持有高股息股票等红利资 产。 而为何是H股而非A股呢？其一，相较于A股，H股的有更高地股息率和更低的估值，以港股通金融ETF 跟踪指数为例，截至6月20日，其近12个月股息率为8.15%，而A股的中证银行指数同指标是5.35%；其 二，保险公司连续持有H股满12个月取得的股息红利可免企业所得税，这一税收优势使得险资在投资港 股上市公司标的时，能够将高股息率的 ...

Core Viewpoint - J.M. Smucker's stock has significantly declined following its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results and updated fiscal 2026 guidance, presenting a potential buying opportunity due to its high-yield dividend and attractive valuation [1][2]. Financial Performance - Net sales decreased by 3% year over year in Q4, but increased by 7% for the full fiscal year [4] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 2% to $10.12, with fiscal 2026 guidance expecting net sales growth of 2% to 4% and adjusted EPS to decline to between $8.50 and $9.50 [4] - Free cash flow (FCF) for fiscal 2025 was $816.6 million, covering $455.4 million in dividend payments, with expectations for FCF to rise to $875 million in fiscal 2026 [10][11] Pricing Strategy and Market Conditions - The company is facing record-high green coffee production costs, leading to planned price increases in May and August [5][6] - Price increases have been implemented across various product lines, including Uncrustables, which saw its first price hike in over three years [7] - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment, which includes Hostess, has underperformed, with net sales down 26% year over year [9] Dividend Stability - J.M. Smucker has raised its dividend for 29 consecutive years, with a current yield of 4.6% due to the stock sell-off [11] - The company has a free cash flow yield of 6.5%, indicating strong potential to support its dividend payments [12] Valuation Metrics - The forward price-to-FCF ratio is 11.5, and the forward price-to-earnings ratio is 10.5, suggesting the stock is undervalued compared to historical averages [13][14] - The company's market cap has fallen to $10.05 billion, with the Sweet Baked Snacks segment contributing only 12% of total net sales [9] Investment Opportunity - Despite the challenges, J.M. Smucker continues to generate substantial free cash flow and offers a reliable dividend, making it an attractive investment for the second half of 2025 [19]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of in-depth research on various income alternatives such as REITs, mREITs, Preferreds, BDCs, MLPs, and ETFs [1] - It highlights the popularity of the research service, evidenced by 438 testimonials, most of which are rated 5 stars [1] - The author expresses a personal beneficial long position in HD shares, indicating a vested interest in the stock [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific investment recommendations or advice, emphasizing that past performance does not guarantee future results [2] - It clarifies that the views expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole, indicating a diversity of opinions among analysts [2] - The analysts contributing to the platform may not be licensed or certified, which could affect the credibility of the investment insights provided [2]

Core Viewpoint - High dividend stocks attract investor attention due to their ability to provide stable cash returns and reflect strong operational and financial health of companies [1][4]. Energy Sector - China Nuclear Power has a dividend yield of 1.89%, with stable cash flow expected as technology advances and demand for new energy grows, despite high construction costs and regulatory challenges [1]. - China Shenhua boasts a high dividend yield of 7.25%, benefiting from integrated operations in coal mining, transportation, and sales, but faces transformation pressures due to the development of new energy and carbon neutrality goals [2]. Steel Sector - Baosteel has a dividend yield of 4.49%, maintaining stable profitability through scale advantages and innovation, though it faces challenges from environmental regulations and overcapacity [1]. Water Power Sector - Yangtze Power has a dividend yield of 3.25%, leveraging scarce water resources and low operating costs, but is susceptible to fluctuations in water availability due to extreme weather [2]. Financial Sector - The four major banks in China, including Agricultural Bank (6.14%), Industrial and Commercial Bank (6.01%), China Construction Bank (5.89%), and Bank of China (6.48%), maintain high dividend yields supported by extensive networks and stable profitability, yet must innovate to address market challenges [2]. Railway Sector - Daqin Railway leads the railway transport sector with a dividend yield of 7.64%, benefiting from its monopoly on the Daqin line, but must adapt to macroeconomic changes and transport structure adjustments [3]. Oil and Gas Sector - China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical have dividend yields of 4.28% and 5.30%, respectively, maintaining profitability through integrated operations despite market volatility and the need for energy transition [3]. Construction Sector - China State Construction has a dividend yield of 4.23%, leveraging strong brand and project management capabilities, but faces risks from material price fluctuations and receivables management [3]. Insurance Sector - Ping An Insurance has a dividend yield of 3.15%, with potential for improved performance as the insurance industry undergoes transformation and embraces financial technology [4]. Alcohol Sector - Wuliangye has a lower dividend yield of 1.55%, focusing on brand building and market expansion, which limits its dividend distribution compared to other high-yield sectors [4]. Summary - These companies provide varying levels of dividend returns based on their industry positions, operational strengths, and financial health, highlighting the importance of analyzing industry trends and company stability when selecting high dividend stocks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF Fund (513820) has distributed its 11th cash dividend, reflecting a stable income stream for investors in a low-interest-rate environment [1][11]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Dividend Distribution - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF Fund (513820) experienced a slight decline of 0.09% after reaching a peak, with the current dividend distribution marking a significant milestone for investors [1]. - The fund has consistently provided monthly dividends since July 2024, with a total distribution of 0.29 yuan per 10 shares, indicating a reliable income source [11]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The underlying index of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF, which focuses on high-dividend stocks, has seen most of its constituent stocks experience a pullback, although some, like Pacific Shipping, have shown gains [3]. - Insurance capital is increasingly entering the market, with a focus on high-dividend stocks, as indicated by the approval of new long-term investment pilot programs for smaller insurance companies [3][5]. - The investment strategy of insurance companies emphasizes high-dividend stocks, which are expected to provide better returns in a declining interest rate environment [8]. Group 3: Sector Preferences and Stock Performance - Insurance funds are heavily invested in sectors such as transportation, telecommunications, and banking, while reducing exposure to food and beverage, utilities, and energy sectors [9]. - The average dividend yield of stocks targeted by insurance companies has increased to 4.6%, the highest in recent years, reflecting a shift in focus towards high-dividend investments [9]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis and Valuation - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF boasts a leading dividend yield of 7.87%, outperforming other major dividend indices, which enhances its attractiveness to investors [10]. - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is comparatively lower than that of A-shares, providing a greater margin of safety for investors [10].

Core Insights - Regulatory authorities have implemented multi-dimensional policy tools to facilitate insurance capital's entry into the market, leading to a record increase in equity investments by insurance funds in Q1 2025 [1][4] - As of the end of Q1, the balance of insurance fund investments reached 34.93 trillion yuan, with stock investments amounting to 2.82 trillion yuan, reflecting a 16.03% increase [1][5] - The shift in insurance capital's allocation between stock investments and funds is attributed to regulatory changes and market conditions [1][7] Regulatory Environment - The implementation of policies such as the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Long-term Funds to Enter the Market" aims to encourage large state-owned insurance companies to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares starting in 2025 [4] - Regulatory adjustments have raised the upper limit for equity asset allocation and reduced the risk factors associated with stock investments, easing the pressure on solvency [4][6] Investment Trends - High-dividend stocks, particularly in the banking sector, remain a favored choice for insurance capital, with holdings in bank stocks reaching 278.21 billion shares valued at 265.78 billion yuan [5] - Despite the enthusiasm for equity investments, the average equity investment ratio for commercial insurance companies remains conservative at around 25% [5][6] Challenges and Recommendations - The lack of long-term capital in the capital market is attributed to the underdeveloped environment for long-term value investment, misaligned institutional incentives, and lagging institutional capabilities [6] - Recommendations include deepening mechanism reforms and enhancing policy support to foster a healthy ecosystem for long-term capital investment [6] Fund Allocation Dynamics - While insurance capital has increased its allocation to stocks and long-term equity investments, there has been a decline in fund allocations, with a net decrease of 30 billion yuan [7] - The decline in fund investments is linked to changes in financial instrument classifications and poor fund performance, with 64% of active equity funds underperforming their benchmarks over three years [7][8] Shift to Index Funds - Insurance companies are transitioning from active funds to index funds due to lower management fees associated with passive management [8] - Active funds remain essential for smaller insurance companies seeking higher returns, although the preference is shifting towards newer funds as assets grow [8]