Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][47] Core Viewpoints - The structural changes in funding are significant, leading to a shift towards reallocation rather than trading. The continuous expansion of passive indices has brought stable capital inflows, and the high-weight characteristics of the banking sector will continue to attract funds. The average dividend yield of the sector is currently at 4.47%, which, combined with regulatory measures encouraging long-term capital inflows, suggests that the attractiveness of dividend allocation will persist. The report favors A-share banks and certain quality regional banks (Chengdu, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Suzhou, Changsha) while also considering Hong Kong's major banks for their dividend advantages [3][12][8] Summary by Sections Earnings Outlook - The third-quarter earnings are expected to remain stable despite non-interest income pressures. As of the end of August, the year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans is 6.8%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the end of July. The net interest margin is expected to narrow less than before, with a year-on-year decrease of 13 basis points to 1.42% as of the end of June. The lack of interest rate cuts in Q3 supports the stability of asset pricing levels, and the interest margin business is expected to remain stable overall [4][9][8] Asset Quality - The asset quality is expected to remain stable, with the non-performing loan ratio at 1.49% as of the end of June, and the provision coverage ratio and loan-to-deposit ratio at 212% and 3.16%, respectively. The overall asset quality is anticipated to remain stable in Q3, with disturbances mainly from the retail sector [9][8] Market Performance - In September 2025, the banking sector fell by 6.64%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.84 percentage points, ranking 29th among 30 sectors in the CITIC first-level industry classification [20][1] Macro and Liquidity Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.80%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.40 percentage points. The CPI for August is -0.40% year-on-year, and the PPI is -2.90% year-on-year. The policy interest rates remained stable in September, with the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.50%, respectively [29][36][30]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in Q2 2025, with a revenue decline but significant profit growth, indicating resilience in its operations despite market pressures [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was 51.7 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.3 billion yuan, up 50% year-on-year. For the first half of 2025, revenue totaled 112 billion yuan, down 6%, and net profit was 9.3 billion yuan, up 24% [1]. - The operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 reached 30.7 billion yuan, an increase of 30% year-on-year, supported by reduced financial expenses, which fell by 15% [2]. Coal Power Sector - Despite pressure on electricity prices, the average coal price for Q2 2025 decreased by 13% year-on-year, leading to a significant increase in pre-tax profit per kilowatt-hour to 4.4 cents, compared to 1.5 cents in the same period last year [1]. - Coal power generation hours were under pressure, with a 3.5% year-on-year decline in electricity output, and the settlement price for coal power decreased by 6% to 479 yuan per megawatt-hour [1]. Renewable Energy Sector - Wind and solar power prices continued to face pressure, but solar power's pre-tax profit per kilowatt-hour was recorded at 1.7 cents, which was better than expected. Wind power's pre-tax profit was approximately 1.6 cents, down 10% year-on-year [1]. Dividend and Long-term Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong dividend capability, with a projected dividend of 0.27 yuan per share for 2024, an increase of 35% year-on-year, and a dividend payout ratio of 59% [3]. - The company is optimistic about its long-term dividend yield, projecting 4% for A-shares and 6% for H-shares, supported by robust cash flow and profit release from coal prices [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 10% and 3.6%, respectively, to 12.7 billion yuan and 13.1 billion yuan [4]. - The target price for H-shares has been raised by 25% to 6.69 yuan, while the target price for A-shares remains unchanged at 10.49 yuan, indicating potential upside of 43% for A-shares and 25% for H-shares [4].

银行 2025 年 7 月 25 日 25Q2 银行持仓点评 板块持仓持续回升，关注优质中小银行 强于大市（维持） 行 业 报 告 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 袁喆奇 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520080003 | | | YUANZHEQI052@pingan.com.cn | | 许淼 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060525020001 | | | XUMIAO533@pingan.com.cn | 研究助理 李灵琇 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124070021 LILINGXIU785@pingan.com.cn 态 跟 踪 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 动 报 告 2 季度末银行板块整体持仓明显提升。A 股基金 2025 年 2 季度报披露完 毕，2 季度末包括股票型、偏股混合和灵活配置基金在内的主动管理型基 金配置银行板块持仓比例环比抬升 59BP 至 2.61%，参照板块在沪深 300 的流通市值占比来看低配 21.09 个百分点，持仓水平仍有较大提升空间。 值得注意的是，24 年末以来，在权益类公募基金中，被动指数基 ...