该行表示，虽然华晨中国的股息水平具吸引力，但该行认为后续股息金额可能迅速回落，因公司的现金 水平已不及以往充裕，而且华晨宝马合资公司在中国市场的盈利仍可能持续面临挑战。该行将华晨中国 2025及26年盈利预测分别下调11%及4%，目标价由4.7港元降至4.1港元，评级由"增持"下调至"中性"。 智通财经APP获悉，华晨中国(01114)回落逾3%，截至发稿，跌3.35%，报4.04港元，成交额4195.03万港 元。 摩根大通最新研报指出，估算华晨中国截至今年底资产负债表上的现金结余约为每股1至1.5港元，连同 今年每股盈利预测0.64元人民币及派息率50%的预期，预计2026年上半年股息介乎0.35至0.9港元(若包含 特别息)，意味股息率约为8%至21%。 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that several domestic insurance companies experienced a quarterly decline in core solvency ratios, averaging a drop of 9 percentage points [1] - The rebound in mainland bond yields negatively impacted the solvency of many insurance firms, but strong earnings and reserve growth helped mitigate these effects [1] - The report favors China Life (02628) due to its robust earnings and conservative capital management [1] - China Ping An (02318) is also favored based on its leading forecasted dividend yield of 6% for the next year compared to peers [1] Industry Performance - Major life insurance companies in mainland China saw a quarterly decline in core solvency ratios by 16 percentage points, while non-life insurance companies experienced a 3 percentage point increase [1] - Insurance management teams have implemented various measures in response, including issuing perpetual bonds, reducing equity risk exposure, and broadly decreasing non-standard asset balances [1] - Despite strong profit growth for major insurance companies in the first three quarters, the volatility in solvency capital may become a significant offset to year-end dividend forecasts, particularly for small and medium-sized life insurance companies [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of future dividends in trading strategies, portfolio management, and risk management for institutional investors focusing on the Chinese market, especially as regulatory bodies encourage more stable and frequent dividend policies to support stock prices and boost investor confidence [1][3]. Model Overview - Bloomberg Dividend Forecast (BDVD) combines three core driving factors to assess and predict dividend payments, integrating both quantitative and qualitative key factors while backtesting dividend payment dates to identify patterns [3]. - The dividend amount model considers company fundamentals, debt structure, management comments, and dividend policies, along with additional calculation factors that comply with the latest regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [3][4]. Data Access and Delivery - BDVD data is accessible through Bloomberg Terminal and Data License services, allowing for enterprise-level and scalable data access [6]. - Two delivery methods are offered: bulk delivery for complete datasets and per security delivery for specific data needs, including detailed predictions for dividends, announcement dates, ex-dividend dates, and payment dates [10][11]. Applications for Sell-Side Institutions - Sell-side analysts can utilize BDVD data to validate dividend hypotheses, enhancing the accuracy of stock research and industry outlooks, while also showcasing improvements in Chinese corporate dividend policies to attract global capital [10]. - Accurate dividend predictions are crucial for derivatives trading teams, as dividends directly impact options pricing, index futures, and structured products [10]. Applications for Buy-Side Institutions - Buy-side institutions can leverage BDVD data to enhance dividend strategies and optimize investment performance, with evidence showing that companies predicted to have the highest future dividend growth outperformed those with the highest actual dividend growth [19]. - Portfolio managers can adjust holdings to favor companies with stable or growing dividends and conduct scenario stress tests to assess cash flow risks and potential return volatility [21][22]. Global Coverage and Forward-Looking Capability - BDVD products provide comprehensive global solutions for dividend amount and payment date predictions, covering nearly 99% of companies with a continuous or active dividend record [23][24]. - The product offers extensive historical data, enabling investors to obtain reliable forward-looking insights on future dividends, supporting diverse applications from strategy development to risk assessment [24][27].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings per share forecasts for Swire Properties (01972) for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 11%, 1%, and 2% respectively, reflecting the latest half-year performance and recent progress in capital recovery [1] Group 1: Earnings and Dividends - The full-year dividend forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been increased by 0.2%, indicating a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, 4.5%, and 4.5% during this period [1] - The target price has been raised by 11%, from HKD 18 to HKD 20, while maintaining a "market perform" rating [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Due to oversupply in the office market and declining demand, Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious outlook on the Hong Kong office market [1] - Swire Properties' recurring income base from new commercial properties in mainland China, capital recovery measures, and a strong balance sheet are expected to withstand downward pressure [1]