股指期货市场分析
Search documents
“数”看期货:近一周卖方策略一致观点-20251104
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-04 09:01
股指期货市场概况 从整体表现来看,相较于上上周最后一个交易日,上周四大期指主力合约涨跌不一,中证 500 期指涨幅最大,涨幅 为 1.59%,上证 50 期指下跌,跌幅为-0.96%。IF、IC 贴水收窄,IM 贴水加深,IH 升水加深。 全部合约角度看,较上上周而言,IF、IC 和 IH 的当月、下月、当季和下季合约的平均成交量上升,其中 IC 上升幅 度最大,为 5.78%,IH 上升幅度最小,为 2.71%,IM 平均成交量下降,下降幅度为-1.15%,四大期指上周五的合计 持仓量均上升,其中 IF 上升幅度最大,为 6.15%,IM 上升幅度最小,幅度为 3.81%。 基差水平方面,截至上周五收盘,IF、IC、IM 和 IH 当季合约的年化基差率分别为-1.88%、-9.19%、-12.47%和 0.40%, 较上上周最后一个交易日,IF、IC 贴水收窄,IM 贴水加深,IH 升水加深。 qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq 跨期价差方面,截至上周五收盘,IF、IC、IM和IH当月合约与下月合约的跨期价差率分别处在2019年以来的53.00%、 44.60%、62.90%和 47.00%分位数。IF ...
股指月报:市场中期压力犹存-20250603
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 07:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View - The stock index futures market in May showed an overall upward trend but is shifting from strong to weak oscillations. The domestic economic data in May was divergent, and the overseas economic situation was complex. Although the market has some short - term upward momentum, it faces significant domestic and foreign pressures in the medium term. Investors should closely monitor economic data and policy dynamics, adjust investment strategies flexibly, control risks effectively, and seize structural market opportunities [23][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, IC2506 closed at 5,627.8 points, up 130.8 points or 2.38% from the previous month. IM2506 closed at 5,966.0 points, up 164.6 points or 2.84% from the previous month [5] 3.2 Economic Indicator Analysis - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level [6] - In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. It remained above the critical point, and the non - manufacturing sector continued to expand [8] - In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand [10] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of June 2, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.65 times, the percentile was 65.96%, and the PB was 1.77 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.26 times, the percentile was 57.06%, and the PB was 2.05 times [14] 3.4 Other Data - The current "total market value/GDP" percentile in historical data is 58.18%, and in the last 10 - year data, it is 48.39% [21]