Market Performance - A-shares continued strong performance on August 25, with all three major indices closing higher; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883 points, just a step away from the 3900-point mark [1] - The stock index futures market also saw a simultaneous rise, with the CSI 300 index futures (IF) leading with a gain of 2.29%, followed by the SSE 50 index futures (IH) at 2.14%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) at 1.8%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) at 1.27% [1] Futures Market Activity - The total open interest for IF reached 289,600 contracts, with a daily increase of 12,400 contracts; IC's total open interest was 244,500 contracts, with a daily increase of 10,900 contracts [1] - Analysts noted that the increase in trading volume and open interest across the four major index futures indicates a significant rise in market bullish sentiment [1] Market Sentiment and Expectations - The narrowing of the futures discount since July indicates a clear improvement in market expectations; for instance, the discount for the CSI 300 index futures (IF) decreased from over 56 points in early July to around 25 points in August, eventually turning into a slight premium [2][5] - Current market conditions are characterized as an "accelerating sentiment" phase, with strong capital inflow and rapid rotation of market hotspots, making investors more sensitive to positive policy and earnings surprises [5] Risk Management and Investment Strategy - Despite the market rally, analysts caution investors to be aware of potential short-term overheating risks; they recommend maintaining existing positions while managing risks effectively [6] - Focus should be on high-growth sectors such as technology and consumer goods for structural opportunities, while being cautious of stocks with excessive short-term gains and valuations deviating from fundamentals [6] - In the medium to long term, if economic recovery trends and corporate earnings improve, the market may shift from sentiment-driven to earnings-driven, enhancing the value of quality asset allocation [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a strong performance, with major indices collectively rising and the stock index futures market also showing significant gains, reflecting increased market enthusiasm [1][2]. - The main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose by 2.29%, while other contracts such as the SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) also saw increases of 2.14%, 1.8%, and 1.27% respectively, indicating a broad-based rally in the futures market [1]. - The total open interest for the IF contract reached 289,600 lots, with a daily increase of 12,400 lots, while the IC contract had an open interest of 244,500 lots, increasing by 10,900 lots, suggesting a strong influx of capital into the market [1]. Group 2 - Since July, the degree of discount (contango) in stock index futures has gradually narrowed, with the IF contract's discount to the spot market reducing from over 56 points in early July to around 25 points in August, indicating a shift towards a slight premium [2]. - The narrowing of the discount typically signifies improving market expectations for future indices, with the current market being in an "accelerating sentiment" phase characterized by strong capital inflow and rapid rotation of hot sectors [4]. - Investors are becoming more sensitive to positive policy news and better-than-expected earnings, which is driving a positive feedback loop between the futures and spot markets [4]. Group 3 - Despite the market's strong upward movement, analysts caution investors to be aware of potential short-term overheating risks, suggesting that while maintaining current positions, risk management is essential [5]. - It is recommended to focus on high-growth sectors such as technology and consumer goods for structural opportunities, while being cautious of stocks that have seen excessive short-term gains and valuations that deviate from fundamentals [5]. - In the medium to long term, if the economic recovery trend is confirmed and corporate earnings improve, the market is expected to transition from being sentiment-driven to profit-driven, enhancing the value of quality asset allocations [5].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Dividend Adjustment for Futures Basis **Construction Idea**: Adjust the futures basis by incorporating the expected dividend impact during the contract's lifespan[9][21] **Construction Process**: Futures basis is calculated as the difference between the futures contract closing price and the underlying index closing price. The adjustment accounts for dividends expected during the contract's lifespan, which are reflected in the futures price. The formula is: $ Annualized Basis = (Actual Basis + Expected Dividend Points) / Index Price × 360 / Remaining Days of Contract $[21] **Evaluation**: Provides a more accurate representation of the futures basis by accounting for dividend effects[21] - **Model Name**: Continuous Hedging Strategy **Construction Idea**: Optimize hedging by continuously rolling futures contracts based on expiration dates[44][45] **Construction Process**: - Hold the corresponding total return index for the spot side - Use 70% of funds for the spot side and 30% for shorting futures contracts - Roll futures contracts when the remaining days to expiration are less than 2 days, using the closing price for both closing and opening positions[45] **Evaluation**: Effective for maintaining consistent exposure but sensitive to transaction costs and market conditions[45] - **Model Name**: Minimum Basis Hedging Strategy **Construction Idea**: Select futures contracts with the smallest annualized basis for hedging[46] **Construction Process**: - Calculate the annualized basis for all available futures contracts - Open positions in the contract with the smallest basis - Hold the contract for 8 trading days or until the remaining days to expiration are less than 2 days[46] **Evaluation**: Reduces basis risk but requires frequent monitoring and adjustments[46] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Cinda-VIX **Construction Idea**: Reflect market expectations of future volatility using a modified VIX calculation tailored to China's market[62] **Construction Process**: - Based on overseas VIX methodologies, adjusted for China's market conditions - Incorporates the term structure of volatility to capture expectations across different time horizons[62] **Evaluation**: Provides valuable insights into market sentiment and volatility expectations[62] - **Factor Name**: Cinda-SKEW **Construction Idea**: Measure the skewness in implied volatility across different strike prices to assess tail risk[67] **Construction Process**: - Analyze the implied volatility of options with varying strike prices - Higher SKEW values indicate increased tail risk expectations, while lower values suggest reduced concerns[67] **Evaluation**: Useful for understanding market sentiment regarding extreme events and tail risks[67] Model Backtesting Results - **Dividend Adjustment for Futures Basis**: - IC contract: Current basis -5.89%[22] - IF contract: Current basis -0.05%[27] - IH contract: Current basis +1.70%[32] - IM contract: Current basis -6.92%[37] - **Continuous Hedging Strategy**: - IC: Annualized return -3.07%, volatility 3.82%, max drawdown -9.27%, net value 0.9086[48] - IF: Annualized return 0.38%, volatility 2.97%, max drawdown -3.95%, net value 1.0116[53] - IH: Annualized return 0.97%, volatility 3.08%, max drawdown -4.22%, net value 1.0302[57] - IM: Annualized return -6.21%, volatility 4.72%, max drawdown -14.01%, net value 0.8345[59] - **Minimum Basis Hedging Strategy**: - IC: Annualized return -1.40%, volatility 4.60%, max drawdown -7.97%, net value 0.9577[48] - IF: Annualized return 1.18%, volatility 3.10%, max drawdown -4.06%, net value 1.0366[53] - IH: Annualized return 1.63%, volatility 3.09%, max drawdown -3.91%, net value 1.0511[57] - IM: Annualized return -4.04%, volatility 5.55%, max drawdown -11.11%, net value 0.8702[59] Factor Backtesting Results - **Cinda-VIX**: - 30-day volatility: - CSI 500: 32.58[62] - CSI 1000: 29.50[62] - HS 300: 22.97[62] - SSE 50: 24.31[62] - **Cinda-SKEW**: - 30-day skewness: - CSI 500: 98.22[68] - CSI 1000: 106.46[68] - HS 300: 104.77[68] - SSE 50: 99.82[68]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies, as detailed in the "Cinda Financial Engineering Derivatives Research Report Series III"[44] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to August 15, 2025[45] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[45] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and allocate the same nominal principal amount to short futures contracts of CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[45] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining time to maturity is less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price and simultaneously short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price[45] - **Assumptions**: Equal allocation of principal between spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[45] 2. Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount to optimize hedging performance[46] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to August 15, 2025[46] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[46] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and allocate the same nominal principal amount to short futures contracts of CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[46] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts on the day of rebalancing and select the contract with the smallest basis discount for opening positions. Hold the same contract for 8 trading days or until the remaining time to maturity is less than 8 days before selecting a new contract[46] - **Assumptions**: Equal allocation of principal between spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[46] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **CSI 500**: - Annualized Return: -3.00% (monthly), -2.17% (quarterly)[48] - Volatility: 3.82% (monthly), 4.71% (quarterly)[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -9.01% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly)[48] - Net Value: 0.9112 (monthly), 0.9351 (quarterly)[48] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -4.34% (monthly), -1.89% (quarterly)[48] - **CSI 300**: - Annualized Return: 0.42% (monthly), 0.57% (quarterly)[51] - Volatility: 2.97% (monthly), 3.32% (quarterly)[51] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly)[51] - Net Value: 1.0128 (monthly), 1.0174 (quarterly)[51] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[51] - 2025 YTD Return: -1.06% (monthly), -0.24% (quarterly)[51] - **SSE 50**: - Annualized Return: 0.98% (monthly), 1.87% (quarterly)[56] - Volatility: 3.08% (monthly), 3.50% (quarterly)[56] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.76% (quarterly)[56] - Net Value: 1.0301 (monthly), 1.0583 (quarterly)[56] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[56] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.08% (monthly), 0.89% (quarterly)[56] - **CSI 1000**: - Annualized Return: -6.19% (monthly), -4.65% (quarterly)[60] - Volatility: 4.71% (monthly), 5.76% (quarterly)[60] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.01% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly)[60] - Net Value: 0.8362 (monthly), 0.8654 (quarterly)[60] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[60] - 2025 YTD Return: -10.21% (monthly), -5.84% (quarterly)[60] 2. Minimum Basis Strategy - **CSI 500**: - Annualized Return: -1.32%[48] - Volatility: 4.60%[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.97%[48] - Net Value: 0.9603[48] - Annual Turnover: 17.36[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -1.85%[48] - **CSI 300**: - Annualized Return: 1.22%[51] - Volatility: 3.10%[51] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.06%[51] - Net Value: 1.0378[51] - Annual Turnover: 15.39[51] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.41%[51] - **SSE 50**: - Annualized Return: 1.64%[56] - Volatility: 3.10%[56] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.91%[56] - Net Value: 1.0509[56] - Annual Turnover: 16.05[56] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.97%[56] - **CSI 1000**: - Annualized Return: -4.02%[60] - Volatility: 5.56%[60] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.11%[60] - Net Value: 0.8720[60] - Annual Turnover: 15.97[60] - 2025 YTD Return: -5.09%[60] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market, with a term structure to capture expectations over different time horizons[62] - **Factor Construction Process**: Adjusted based on overseas methodologies and tailored to China's options market[62] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into market volatility expectations and serves as a valuable tool for risk management[62] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market expectations of tail risks[69] - **Factor Construction Process**: Analyzes the slope of implied volatility to assess market sentiment towards extreme events[69] - **Factor Evaluation**: Useful for identifying market concerns about potential large-scale risks, often referred to as the "Black Swan Index"[70] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cinda-VIX - **30-Day VIX Values**: - SSE 50: 24.25[62] - CSI 300: 24.25[62] - CSI 500: 28.09[62] - CSI 1000: 27.87[62] 2. Cinda-SKEW - **SKEW Values**: - SSE 50: 100.82[70] - CSI 300: 105.10[70] - CSI 500: 99.01[70] - CSI 1000: 109.56[70]