Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report As of December 25, 2025, the domestic futures market showed mixed performance. Some commodities like polysilicon and platinum had significant gains, while palladium and others declined. Different commodities had their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and the market trends varied. For example, copper was affected by potential strikes and production changes; lithium carbonate was influenced by downstream demand and inventory; and crude oil was affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand balance [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on December 25, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon and platinum rose over 4%, while palladium fell over 7%. Among stock index futures, IM rose 1.16%, and among bond futures, TL fell 0.24%. In terms of capital flow, platinum 2606 had an inflow of 526 million, while silver 2602 had an outflow of 4.354 billion [6][7]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper**: Opened high and closed low with an intraday increase. Potential strikes in Chile, rising processing fees, and increased production affected the market. Copper foil remained prosperous, but downstream demand was weak, and caution was needed for potential corrections [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened low and closed high. High production capacity utilization, increased production, and strong downstream demand supported the price. However, the end of the peak season and potential supply increases required caution [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ planned to suspend production increase. Demand season ended, and inventory increased. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Venezuela and the Russia - Ukraine issue influenced the market, and a supply - surplus situation persisted. It was recommended to wait and see [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: Supply decreased, and demand varied by region. Concerns about Venezuelan heavy - oil exports affected the market. It was expected to fluctuate, and the Venezuelan situation should be monitored [15]. - **PP**: Downstream开工率 was low, production capacity increased, and demand was weak. The supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, and the upward space was limited. The L - PP spread was expected to narrow [17]. - **Plastic**:开工率 was neutral, downstream demand declined, and new production capacity was added. The upward space was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [18][20]. - **PVC**: Supply decreased slightly, downstream demand was weak, inventory was high, and new production capacity was added. The upward space was limited during the traditional off - season [21]. - **Coking Coal**: Opened high and closed flat. Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. The market was under pressure [22][23]. - **Urea**: Opened flat and closed up. Supply was abundant, downstream demand was stable, and inventory decreased. It was expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [24].

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Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 10, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, and various industry information providers 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View As of the close on December 10, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver and container shipping to Europe had significant increases, while others such as alumina and soda ash declined. The performance of each commodity was affected by factors including supply - demand relationships, production conditions, geopolitical situations, and macro - economic expectations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Commodity Performance - Gainers: Shanghai silver rose over 5%, container shipping to Europe rose over 3%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, iron ore, soybeans, polysilicon, and soybeans No. 2 rose nearly 2% [6] - Losers: Alumina fell over 3%, soda ash, glass, industrial silicon, and styrene fell over 2%, log, pure benzene, PVC, palm oil, coking coal, SC crude oil, staple fiber, polypropylene, and propylene fell over 1% [7] - Stock Index Futures: CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.15%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.35%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.39%, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.26% [7] - Bond Futures: 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) main contract rose 0.04%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) main contract rose 0.06%, 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) main contract rose 0.06%, 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) main contract rose 0.30% [7] 3.2 Market Analysis by Commodity 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Market Trend: Opened low and moved lower, with weak intraday fluctuations - Production: In November, the production rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower than the previous month and the same period last year. In December, 4 smelters are expected to have maintenance, and production is expected to increase due to previous restarts [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak. Copper tube enterprises are cautious, and the production of copper plate and strip and copper rod is affected by cost and order issues [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: Opened low and moved high, rising nearly 3% intraday - Production: In November, production continued to grow, and in December, it is expected to increase by about 3%. The capacity utilization rate this week is 75.34%, significantly higher year - on - year [10][11] - Demand: Downstream production continues to grow but at a slower pace, and the impact of energy storage demand needs further verification [11] - Inventory: In November, the inventory decreased slightly after 5 consecutive months of decline [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + will maintain production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary - cut countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US production is at a high level, and global floating storage is increasing. Some oil fields have resumed production [12] - Demand: The peak demand season is over, and US refined product inventories have increased more than expected [12] - Geopolitics: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and the US - Venezuela military confrontation has intensified [12] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9%. In December, the planned output is 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year [15] - Demand: Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather, and overall demand is average [15] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate rose 0.10 percentage points to 53.93%. The enterprise operating rate is about 84%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire has decreased. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have decreased slightly [16][17] - Demand: Downstream demand is at the end of the peak season, orders have decreased, and the market lacks large - scale purchases [16][17] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The operating rate is about 90%. New capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has increased slightly. Petrochemical inventories are at a relatively high level [18] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has decreased, and the peak season of agricultural film is coming to an end. Orders have continued to decline, and downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [18] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The operating rate has decreased slightly to 79.89%, and new capacity has been put into operation. Social inventories are still high [19][20] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage [20] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Market Trend: Opened high and moved high but fell more than 1% intraday - Supply: Near the end of the year, imported coal has increased, and the production rate of coal mines has decreased slightly. Some factories may reduce production after completing their annual tasks [21] - Demand: Iron water production has decreased, and coking and steel mills are in the off - season. The demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline [21] - Inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased, while the inventory of mines has increased significantly [21] - Price Outlook: The fundamentals are weak, but short - term demand may increase due to restocking [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Market Trend: Opened high and moved low, then strengthened intraday - Supply: Upstream devices have both shutdowns and restarts, and the daily production has not decreased significantly [23] - Demand: Downstream winter storage and export orders are stable. The new orders of compound fertilizer factories are not good, and the operating rate is approaching the high - point of the same period in recent years [23] - Inventory: The inventory has continued to decline, and the current supply - demand logic is relatively balanced [23] - Price Outlook: Short - term strength, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on commodities [23]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 02, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - As of December 02, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Synthetic rubber rose nearly 4%, while polysilicon, asphalt, palladium, platinum, and industrial silicon fell over 2%. Different futures varieties are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and economic data, leading to different price trends and future expectations [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 02, domestic futures main contracts had mixed results. Synthetic rubber, silver, pulp, coke, and container shipping to Europe routes had significant increases, while polysilicon, asphalt, palladium, platinum, and industrial silicon had notable drops. Stock index futures and bond futures also mostly declined [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - The US ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. After the Indonesian copper mine accident, production is planned to restart in phases from Q2 2026, easing the tight supply expectation. December domestic copper production is expected to increase. Demand is supported by the power grid and energy storage, but the buying interest has decreased. The CSPT plans to cut production by over 10% in 2026, but the upside for copper prices is limited [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate decreased during the day. In November, domestic production increased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate was high. In December, production is expected to continue to increase, but there may be seasonal production cuts in salt - lake lithium extraction. Demand has entered a stable growth stage, and the supply - demand balance has slightly eased, with the price consolidating at a high level [10][12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and 8 countries will pause production increases in Q1 2026. The demand peak has ended, and US oil inventories have increased. The number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and geopolitical tensions may cause supply disruptions. Crude oil is in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate increased slightly last week, and the December production is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory ratio is at a low level. With the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15] 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but the start - up rate of the plastic weaving industry decreased. Supply has increased with new capacity and some maintenance. Downstream demand is in the off - peak season, and the price increase space is limited [16][17] 3.2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate remained stable. Downstream demand, especially for agricultural films, is in the off - peak season. With new capacity coming on stream, the supply has increased. The price increase space is limited [18] 3.2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate increased, and the downstream start - up rate was stable. The cancellation of India's BIS policy and anti - dumping tax has limited impact. The inventory is high, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season in December, so the upside is limited [19][20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. The supply may decrease at the end of the year, and the inventory is shifting to the upstream. Downstream demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea prices were strong during the day. The gas - based plants are starting to cut production. Agricultural demand is mainly for reserve purchases, and compound fertilizer plants are in the winter storage production stage. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is supported, so the price is expected to be strong in the short term [23]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: November 26, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling. Different futures varieties are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations, and their price trends vary [6]. Summary by Variety Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Peanuts rose nearly 4%, polysilicon rose nearly 3%, glass and Shanghai silver rose nearly 2%, and lithium carbonate, urea, and live pigs rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell nearly 8%, and polypropylene (PP), coke, coking coal, plastic, and fuel oil fell more than 1%. The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.41%, the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.14%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) remained flat, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.09%. The main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.05%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.21%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.36%, and the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.86%. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 26, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.313 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 1.266 billion yuan, and lithium carbonate 2605 had an inflow of 919 million yuan; in terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 2.86 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 2.76 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 1.355 billion yuan [6][7]. Copper - Today, copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. The US economic data had little impact on copper prices. The copper concentrate inventory has been accumulating for a week, and the Indonesian Grasberg mine is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is still ongoing, and the refining fees remain stable. Although the import of refined copper has decreased, the domestic supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also been accumulating. The implementation of Policy 770 is yet to be determined, and the production of recycled copper rods in some regions has decreased. After the decline in copper prices last week, downstream procurement increased. Overall, after the Sino - US leaders' dialogue, the international risk expectation has eased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, which is beneficial to copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will be strong before the interest rate cut meeting [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, rising during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 92,800 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 90,400 yuan/ton, both rising by 750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of October 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year. The price of spodumene has risen, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by seasonality. The demand for energy storage is expected to be strong, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly. The inventory of lithium carbonate has been continuously decreasing. The market is affected by industry news and sentiment [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. The production increase will be suspended in the first quarter of next year. The end of the peak demand season, the unexpected increase in refined oil inventories, and the high - level US crude oil production have put pressure on the market. Geopolitical factors such as the conflict between the US and Venezuela, the armed conflict in Libya, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine also affect the market. The market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly [12][14]. Asphalt - The operating rate of asphalt last week decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The operating rates of downstream industries varied. The shipment volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of demand due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in asphalt futures prices [15]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn wire, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly. On November 26, some overhauled devices restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to about 83%. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the increase in supply due to new capacity and reduced overhauls, combined with the end of the peak season for downstream demand, are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in PP prices [16][17]. Plastic - On November 26, the operating rate of plastic remained at about 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The new capacity of some enterprises has been put into production, and the operating rate has slightly decreased. The destocking of petrochemicals has slowed down, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in plastic prices [18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. The operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties have increased export orders, but the quotes of Formosa Plastics in December have decreased. The social inventory has increased slightly and is still at a high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The new capacity has been put into production, and it is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate weakly [19][20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, falling during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal decreased by 2 yuan/ton. In October, China's coal imports decreased year - on - year. The utilization rate of coking coal mines increased slightly. The inventory of mines has increased significantly, while the inventory of coking enterprises has decreased. The steel mill's operating rate and hot metal production have increased, but the profit has weakened. The coking coal price has recovered the previous increase, and there may be opportunities for the market to be boosted by winter storage meetings and major domestic meetings [21]. Urea - The futures price of urea opened low and moved high, showing a strong trend during the day. The spot price is still weak, but the low - price transactions in the market are good. The daily production is much higher than the same period in previous years, and it is expected to remain above 190,000 tons before the seasonal shutdown of gas - fired devices. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed down. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has recovered, and the inventory of urea has decreased for several weeks. The market demand has improved, but the upward space is limited due to sufficient supply [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View As of November 10, 2025, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Commodities like lithium carbonate and silver had significant increases, while glass and some others declined. Different futures varieties showed diverse trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, policy impacts, and international market conditions [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 10, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Lithium carbonate rose over 7%, and silver over 2%. Glass fell nearly 3%, and some other contracts also declined. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures showed mixed trends [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 10, contracts such as CSI 300 2512 and CSI 500 2512 had capital inflows, while alumina 2601 and others had outflows [7]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Futures - **Copper (Cu)**: On November 10, copper opened high and closed low, with a strong intraday oscillation. In November, 5 smelters were expected to undergo maintenance, affecting 4.80 million tons of production. The overall copper smelting capacity utilization rate decreased. The supply of scrap copper was expected to increase. The demand was weak, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had been accumulating since the end of October. With the US government shutdown and low probability of a December interest - rate cut, the copper price had limited rebound [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened and closed high on November 10. The supply continued to grow in October 2025. The demand was strong, supported by energy - storage batteries. With the uncertain resumption time of large manufacturers and strong demand, the market was expected to be strong [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, but suspend it in Q1 2026. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price for Asian customers in December. The demand peak had ended, and the market was worried about demand. The supply was in an oversupply situation, but the export of Russian crude oil was expected to be restricted. The oil price was expected to oscillate [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased last week, and the demand was affected by funds and weather. The inventory ratio continued to decline. With the increase in production from some refineries and the weakening demand, and the oscillating crude - oil price, the asphalt futures price was expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - **PP**: The downstream PP operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate was at a medium - low level. The cost was affected by the crude - oil price. With new capacity coming on - stream and limited order follow - up, the market was expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. The downstream operating rate was at a low level. With new capacity coming on - stream and weakening demand, the market was expected to oscillate weakly [18][20]. - **PVC**: The PVC operating rate increased, but the downstream operating rate declined. The export was expected to weaken, and the inventory was high. With the real - estate market still in adjustment and new capacity coming on - stream, the market was expected to oscillate weakly [21]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price opened and closed low on November 10. The supply was in a tight - balance situation, and the downstream demand was weak. The market was expected to operate weakly [22][23]. - **Urea**: The daily urea production was expected to remain high. The cost was supported by coal prices. The demand was mainly for domestic reserves, and the inventory was increasing. After the impact of export news faded, the market was expected to operate based on fundamentals, with narrow fluctuations [24].

Group 1: U.S. Employment Data and Market Reactions - The ADP report indicated an addition of 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the Dow Jones expectation of 22,000 jobs, while September's data was revised from a loss of 29,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000 jobs [2] - Despite a slowdown in job growth, wages continue to rise, providing a mixed signal for the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve is facing internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, with a 62.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, down from the previous day [3] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policy and Legal Debates - The U.S. Supreme Court is debating the legality of the Trump administration's large-scale tariffs, which could impact global economic conditions [4] - If the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, it could force the U.S. government to refund approximately $140 billion in tariffs, significantly affecting the federal budget deficit [5] Group 3: A-Share Market Trends - In the first ten months of the year, the number of new A-share accounts increased by 10.57% year-on-year, indicating a growing interest in the market [6][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3969.25 points, with a slight increase of 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% [6] - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is likely to continue its upward trend, supported by policy measures and capital inflows, despite recent volatility [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Affected by the Fed's cautious rate - cut expectations, the copper price is still on a strong trend due to tight fundamentals, though the upward momentum is weaker than the previous day [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply and demand gradually tightening, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the peak - season and pre - holiday stocking expectations [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply - demand of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner due to high supply - demand pressure of crude oil and limited follow - up of spot prices [13][14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand falls short of expectations and there is no actual anti - involution policy [15]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand is underwhelming and no anti - involution policy has been implemented [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term as downstream pre - holiday stocking ends and new capacity comes on stream [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Attention should be paid to the price transmission between upstream and downstream after the price increase and the macro - market during the National Day holiday [20]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak fundamentals and limited upward momentum [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 26th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates rose nearly 3%, and silver rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal fell over 2% [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:16 on September 26th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2512, silver 2512, and CSI 500 2512, while flowing out of SSE 50 2512, copper 2511, and iron ore 2601 [7]. 3.2 Individual Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The supply of refined copper remains tight due to smelter overhauls and reduced scrap copper supply. The demand is driven by pre - holiday replenishment [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by the reduction of lithium mica - sourced production, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking is ending [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production adjustment will increase the pressure in Q4. The travel peak season is over, but there are factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is restricted by funds and weather. The cost support is strengthening, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure of crude oil is high [13][14]. - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is rising, but the peak - season demand is weak. There are new capacity releases and inventory reduction by petrochemical enterprises [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is increasing, and the agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the peak - season effect is not obvious [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is high. The cost support is strengthening [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The mine output is increasing, and the downstream inventory is piling up. Attention should be paid to the price increase and holiday market [20]. - **Urea**: The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [21][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 18, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month declined. The IF dropped 1.35%, the IH fell 1.45%, the IC decreased 1%, and the IM declined 1.19%. In the short term, the stock index futures may rebound, and the slow - bull pattern in the trend is becoming clearer [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 57,520 lots, 35,836 lots, 72,444 lots, and 143,070 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 14,691 lots, 10,071 lots, 19,056 lots, and 25,806 lots respectively [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data - **September 18 Quotes**: The closing prices of the four major stock index futures all decreased. For example, the closing price of IF2509 was 4,487.2, down 1.35%; IH2509 was 2,910.8, down 1.45%; IC2509 was 7,171.6, down 1%; IM2509 was 7,454.8, down 1.19%. There were also corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, and basis [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The total trading volume of all four major stock index futures increased, and the total open interest also showed an upward trend [2][3]. 3.2 Long and Short Positions of Top 20 Members - For different contracts such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509, there were changes in the increase or decrease of long and short positions. For example, in IF2509, long positions decreased by 17,195, and short positions decreased by 18,103 [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a certain degree of upward trend [7]. 3.4 Important Drivers - In the overseas market, chip stocks boosted the four major US stock indexes to record highs, while Chinese concept stocks declined. In the domestic A - share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64%. The trading volume reached 3.17 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous day [8].