针对AMD与Meta"10%股权换1000亿订单"，高盛表示，在看到Meta和OpenAI的实际部署进展落地之 前，尚不愿给出更积极的评级。 2月24日，华尔街见闻文章指出，AMD与Meta宣布了一项为期五年的战略合作伙伴关系，Meta将部署 6GW的AMD GPU。作为交换，AMD将提供最多1.6亿股（约10%股权）的基于业绩的认股权证。 2月25日，据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新研报中指出，这一合作显著提升了AMD在加速器市场的地 位，也意味着AMD在与英伟达等巨头的竞争中取得了重要进展，但该行强调，只有在看到Meta和 OpenAI的实际部署时间表后，才会对AMD采取更积极的立场，维持对AMD的"中性"评级，目标价上 调至240美元。 战略合作细节：股权换订单 高盛称，这笔交易的核心逻辑是：Meta用潜在股权换取了AMD的深度定制服务与长期供货承诺，AMD 则用未来股权稀释换取了顶级超大规模云厂商的确定性订单和市场份额背书。 高盛将AMD的12个月目标价从210美元上调至240美元，这是基于28倍的市盈率（低于之前的30倍，原 因是同行市盈率下降）应用于8.50美元的标准化EPS预测（高于之前的7.00美 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential AI bubble, highlighting that even leading companies like OpenAI are resorting to financial maneuvers to maintain their valuations, indicating a looming bubble burst [1][9] - A significant collaboration between OpenAI and AMD is noted, where OpenAI will deploy a total of 6GW capacity data centers based on AMD chips, with AMD granting up to 10% equity to OpenAI for a nominal fee [3][4] - The article raises concerns about monopolistic risks and the potential fallout from a bubble burst, drawing parallels to past market crashes in 1999 and 2008 [3][11] Collaboration Dynamics - OpenAI's partnership with AMD is characterized as a "customer order for equity" model, which has led to a substantial increase in AMD's stock price, reflecting market optimism [4][18] - NVIDIA has also engaged in similar financial strategies, investing heavily in OpenAI and other cloud firms, indicating a trend of tech giants forming strategic alliances to secure their positions in the AI landscape [7][18] - The article suggests that these collaborations are part of a broader "internal circulation" strategy within the tech industry, where companies exchange equity for guaranteed orders, thus mitigating the risk of a bubble [4][18] Financial Implications - OpenAI's projected capital expenditures are staggering, with estimates suggesting that investments in data centers could reach trillions of dollars, necessitating innovative financial tools for funding [19][21] - Major tech companies like Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft are expected to collectively spend nearly $300 billion on AI capital expenditures in 2025, with projections exceeding $400 billion in 2026 [21] - The article emphasizes that the current capital expenditure trends are long-term commitments, suggesting that short-term performance is less relevant in the context of these substantial investments [21] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is a prevailing sentiment that while a bubble exists, the current dynamics may differ from past bubbles due to the underlying demand for AI capabilities and the substantial investments being made [9][15] - The potential for AI to revolutionize various sectors is highlighted, with the possibility of breakthroughs in areas like healthcare and labor, which could lead to significant economic transformations [15][21] - The article concludes with a note on the uncertainty surrounding the future of AI, with industry leaders like Sam Altman hinting at aggressive investments driven by the promise of next-generation AI models [21]